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Monday, January 14, 2013

Muhyiddin’s false flag strategy


Carpetman Deepak Jaikishan and ex-IGP Musa Hassan's 'daring revelation' is all part of a plan to checkmate Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak.
COMMENT
Let’s understand one important fact about Umno today – the party cannot be divided down the middle again, as what happened in the 1988 party crisis. The feud then between two warring factions had led to Umno being declared unlawful by the court.
The anti-Najib faction clearly understands this. This time around the anti-Najib forces plan to cut off Umno president and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, with the party remaining intact.
Their first step is to isolate Najib, whereby the Umno warlords and leaders are now distancing themselves from the prime minister during his campaign trails.
The next step is to deploy the false flag strategy.
The anti-Najib team is using outsiders such as the likes of Deepak Jaikishan and ex-inspector general of police Musa Hassan to expose the prime minister and his wife Rosmah Mansor’s wrongdoings.
The team is also bent on showing up police power abuses under Najib’s cousin – Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussain – in its attempt to undermine Najib.
The duo – Deepak and Musa – will “link” themselves to PKR to create a make-believe story that Anwar Ibrahim and PKR are behind them.
This false flag strategy has a two-pronged agenda. First, it is to show that the two are under the directive of the PKR and if this plot fails, the blame is on Anwar and PKR.
But if it works, the beneficiary will be Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s team.
The anti-Najib forces are using Musa and the carpet dealer to checkmate Najib.
Daring revelation
The daring revelation is a clear indication that his own party opponents want him to fail, or even step down before the general election.
If he chooses to do otherwise, they will come out in the open to challenge him – which could mean either a breakup of Umno or election sabotage against him and his closest aide Hishammuddin in the coming polls.
This will further threaten Umno’s chances of victory.
Both Deepak and Musa are the fall guys and have been given assurance of their safety by their backers who now have the upper hand in the internal Umno power game.
The Muhyiddin team will push for the final nail in the coffin by presenting its own list of candidates which Najib has to accept or face sabotage in the election.
Sabotage means Muhyiddin’s team will campaign for opposition candidates who stand against Najib and Hishammuddin in the constituencies they contest.
Hence Najib is compelled to resign gracefully to save Umno or he and the party are both goners.
Under such circumstances most Umno members will show no sympathy for Najib.
Umno, as such, is desperate to have a compromise and understanding with PAS in the run-up to the general election.
Muhyiddin’s Umno knows it cannot count on the other Barisan Nasional component parties which are also in the same boat, with their own internal strife, and public dissatisfaction against them running high.
Hence it has to work out an amicable formula with an opposition party in Pakatan Rakyat that shares some compatibility with Umno’s struggle.
Muhyiddin’s Umno prefers PAS
Since the creation of PKR in 2003, Umno and PKR have become bitter and incriminating rivals. Both are battling for political supremacy.
DAP, being a non-Malay party, is throwing its full weight behind PKR further intensifying the political feud.
Hence Umno’s biggest fear is the possibility that PKR will lead the government in the event of an opposition victory.
This scenario could mean retribution and full exposure of the misdeeds of the Umno elite.
On the other hand, PAS, a Malay-Muslim based party, although an opposition coalition partner, shares some common political and Islamic ideologies with Umno.
Muhyiddin‘s Umno then would prefer to see PAS lead the government if Pakatan wins the election.
Thus in the run-up to the 13th general election, the Muhyiddin team may work out a compromising deal with PAS without jeopardising PAS position in Pakatan.
Muhyiddin’s Umno may help PAS win in constituencies contested by Najib and his closest henchmen by sabotaging these candidates.
In the event Pakatan wins the polls, Umno may pressure Pakatan partners to accept PAS to lead the government.
PAS may reciprocate the favours by refraining from defying and challenging Umno-BN in the event the latter wins the election.
And PAS may lend support to endorse Muhyiddin as the prime minister.
With such an understanding, in a neck-to-neck election, the possibility of Anwar-PKR to lead the Pakatan government if the coalition wins is remote.
PAS must be wary
As such, it would be difficult for PKR and DAP, with PAS being non-partisan, to defy and reject an Umno-BN victory in the election.
But if Dr Mahathir Mohamad teams up with Muhyiddin, the modus operandi for Umno to hold on to power may shift to a more radical one.
The Muhyiddin-Mahathir partnership is akin to the Najib-Rosmah partnership.
Under such circumstances, a compromise between PAS and Umno would benefit Umno, while PAS and Pakatan would be on the losing end.
Hence PAS has to be very careful with any overtures extended by the Muhyiddin-Mahathir Umno circle.
I believe PAS should stay put with Pakatan whatever the circumstances. Any internal differences can be ironed out amicably.
Between PAS and PKR, the former is now getting more support from the Malays by the day.
DAP should accept this reality. The Malays prefer to see the country be led by Muslim intellectuals.
I believe there are many moderate religious intellectuals in PAS who can lead the government if Pakatan wins.
As for Anwar, he is no longer in the equation. He is not even the president of his own party PKR. He was appointed as an adviser. The best role for him is to be the spokesman and coordinator of the coalition.
Awang Abdillah is a political analyst, writer and FMT columnist.

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