The appearance of a poison-pen book, either directly or elliptically targeting a leader, is usually the sign that Umno's periodic factional battles have reached ignition point.
Amid mounting evidence that a power rivalry between leading protagonists has become undeniable, the characteristic indirection of Malay political culture equips the rivals to sustain the public charade that all's well between them because it seems so on the surface.
A compliant mainstream media plays along in foisting the delusion on the public - admittedly, a more difficult task to bring off after the arrival of the Internet.
But the minute a muckraking book appears targeting one contender, you know the gloves have come off and the rivalry has reached confrontation point.
Then, rumours of a health setback suffered by the targeted power broker begin to circulate which only serve to confirm that in the behind-the-scenes maneuvering, it was suggested that he should perhaps withdraw on health grounds.
At this stage in the tingling saga that would have had the rumor mills churning overtime, a publicly aired denial of the health setback story usually means that the target is not going to bow out quietly. It means, instead, that he has decided to fight all the way.
These features of how rivals for power comport themselves in Umno's periodic factional struggles marked the confrontations between Dr Mahathir Mohamd and Musa Hitam in the mid-1980s, and that between Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim more than a decade later.
These facets are also evident as the pressure builds up on Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to quit in the face of allegations he has not publicly denied that he is a felon.
Telltale signs
The period before the eventual bust-up is usually marked by years of festering policy differences.
Because candour is seen as a dangerous indulgence and, on those grounds, eschewed by the contending rivals, observers have to rely on telltale signs that policy divergences have reached unsustainable levels.
In the Mahathir vs Musa wrangle, they had that indication at the Umno general assembly in the year immediately prior to Musa's resignation as deputy prime minister in February 1986.
At the assembly, speculation rose over the reasons for Musa's apparent quiet in the prelude to the assembly. In the deputy president's winding-up speech, Musa attempted an explanation.
He denied he was in a sulk (the Malay equivalent ‘merajuk' is considered bad personal form), saying that after trying hard to save his marriage, he and his wife had decided to come to an amicable divorce.
There was further reason for his quiescence: Musa (right) was on to a policy of "complementarity", he said. With PM Mahathir concentrating on high-octane policies like the promoting of heavy industry, Musa said he had to mind the smaller - complementary - portfolios, like agriculture, race relations and the like.
It was an ingenious explanation in circumstances rife with speculation that he was unhappy with Mahathir's policies, particularly the growing nexus between politics and big business, and that matters had reached a point where he could not hide his discontent anymore.
Several months later, the news that Musa had resigned broke after at least a week during which Kuala Lumpur churned with rumour.
Health issues came up immediately. Asked why his deputy had not attended cabinet earlier in the day, Mahathir cracked sarcastically: "Even deputy prime ministers get sick sometimes."
That evening Musa scotched rumours of his ill-health at Subang airport before leaving for the umrah. "Alhamdullilah, saya sihat (I'm in good health, praise God)," he told an inquiring press.
"I'm going to Mecca to face the Kaabah," he added. Interpretation: he's not guilty of what he has been unfairly accused off by the boss, which is why he is prepared to face Islam's holiest shrine with an open heart.
Shortly afterwards, a book of Musa's speeches on various occasions and on public issues was published, with what looked like a hastily and sharply worded introduction appended, redolent of all what had been bruited about earlier - his disagreement with the policies of the Mahathir administration.
'Black Rose' e-book
Books came before rather than followed the Mahathir-Anwar split in 1998. ‘Asian Renaissance', the title of Anwar's musings on what he predicted was the continent's approaching revival as a force in global affairs, was published in 1996.
It showed that the Malaysian deputy prime minister had a global vision and grasp of the power of ideas in the ebb and flow of civilisations. It subtly disagreed with the view Asians would be content with full stomachs over freedom, and that they valued order over the disorder of democratic dissent, as Mahathir and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew liked to believe.
The book confirmed there was a gulf between the worldviews of the PM and his deputy. When a muckraking book, ‘Fifty Reasons why Anwar cannot be PM', was slipped in the bags of Umno delegates to the July 1998 party assembly, the suspected gulf became an unbridgeable chasm.
The health issue came up immediately. On prime time TV in the last days of August while Mahathir was announcing the imposition of capital controls, he was asked about Anwar's health.
"I don't know - he's breathing I suppose," he said in a comment laced with malevolence that, in retrospect, was premonitory of the beating Anwar was subjected to three weeks later at a detention cell in Bukit Aman police headquarters after his arrest under the ISA.
Muckraking books and rumours of incipient illness cleave together like a romantic pair, with businessman Deepak Jaikishan's e-book ‘Black Rose' and its exposes on the PM and wife Rosmah Mansor hogging the news, followed by rumours that Najib had suffered a stroke, promptly denied by the PM.
It means that a palace coup in Umno being prepared by Najib's rivals is being resisted stoutly. That can only mean further evidence of an incriminating nature to the PM and wife would be dangled in the public domain.
Can we speculate that a party implosion is in the works?
Amid mounting evidence that a power rivalry between leading protagonists has become undeniable, the characteristic indirection of Malay political culture equips the rivals to sustain the public charade that all's well between them because it seems so on the surface.
A compliant mainstream media plays along in foisting the delusion on the public - admittedly, a more difficult task to bring off after the arrival of the Internet.
But the minute a muckraking book appears targeting one contender, you know the gloves have come off and the rivalry has reached confrontation point.
Then, rumours of a health setback suffered by the targeted power broker begin to circulate which only serve to confirm that in the behind-the-scenes maneuvering, it was suggested that he should perhaps withdraw on health grounds.
At this stage in the tingling saga that would have had the rumor mills churning overtime, a publicly aired denial of the health setback story usually means that the target is not going to bow out quietly. It means, instead, that he has decided to fight all the way.
These features of how rivals for power comport themselves in Umno's periodic factional struggles marked the confrontations between Dr Mahathir Mohamd and Musa Hitam in the mid-1980s, and that between Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim more than a decade later.These facets are also evident as the pressure builds up on Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to quit in the face of allegations he has not publicly denied that he is a felon.
Telltale signs
The period before the eventual bust-up is usually marked by years of festering policy differences.
Because candour is seen as a dangerous indulgence and, on those grounds, eschewed by the contending rivals, observers have to rely on telltale signs that policy divergences have reached unsustainable levels.
In the Mahathir vs Musa wrangle, they had that indication at the Umno general assembly in the year immediately prior to Musa's resignation as deputy prime minister in February 1986.
At the assembly, speculation rose over the reasons for Musa's apparent quiet in the prelude to the assembly. In the deputy president's winding-up speech, Musa attempted an explanation.
He denied he was in a sulk (the Malay equivalent ‘merajuk' is considered bad personal form), saying that after trying hard to save his marriage, he and his wife had decided to come to an amicable divorce.
There was further reason for his quiescence: Musa (right) was on to a policy of "complementarity", he said. With PM Mahathir concentrating on high-octane policies like the promoting of heavy industry, Musa said he had to mind the smaller - complementary - portfolios, like agriculture, race relations and the like.It was an ingenious explanation in circumstances rife with speculation that he was unhappy with Mahathir's policies, particularly the growing nexus between politics and big business, and that matters had reached a point where he could not hide his discontent anymore.
Several months later, the news that Musa had resigned broke after at least a week during which Kuala Lumpur churned with rumour.
Health issues came up immediately. Asked why his deputy had not attended cabinet earlier in the day, Mahathir cracked sarcastically: "Even deputy prime ministers get sick sometimes."
That evening Musa scotched rumours of his ill-health at Subang airport before leaving for the umrah. "Alhamdullilah, saya sihat (I'm in good health, praise God)," he told an inquiring press.
"I'm going to Mecca to face the Kaabah," he added. Interpretation: he's not guilty of what he has been unfairly accused off by the boss, which is why he is prepared to face Islam's holiest shrine with an open heart.
Shortly afterwards, a book of Musa's speeches on various occasions and on public issues was published, with what looked like a hastily and sharply worded introduction appended, redolent of all what had been bruited about earlier - his disagreement with the policies of the Mahathir administration.
'Black Rose' e-book
Books came before rather than followed the Mahathir-Anwar split in 1998. ‘Asian Renaissance', the title of Anwar's musings on what he predicted was the continent's approaching revival as a force in global affairs, was published in 1996.
It showed that the Malaysian deputy prime minister had a global vision and grasp of the power of ideas in the ebb and flow of civilisations. It subtly disagreed with the view Asians would be content with full stomachs over freedom, and that they valued order over the disorder of democratic dissent, as Mahathir and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew liked to believe.
The book confirmed there was a gulf between the worldviews of the PM and his deputy. When a muckraking book, ‘Fifty Reasons why Anwar cannot be PM', was slipped in the bags of Umno delegates to the July 1998 party assembly, the suspected gulf became an unbridgeable chasm.
The health issue came up immediately. On prime time TV in the last days of August while Mahathir was announcing the imposition of capital controls, he was asked about Anwar's health.
"I don't know - he's breathing I suppose," he said in a comment laced with malevolence that, in retrospect, was premonitory of the beating Anwar was subjected to three weeks later at a detention cell in Bukit Aman police headquarters after his arrest under the ISA.
Muckraking books and rumours of incipient illness cleave together like a romantic pair, with businessman Deepak Jaikishan's e-book ‘Black Rose' and its exposes on the PM and wife Rosmah Mansor hogging the news, followed by rumours that Najib had suffered a stroke, promptly denied by the PM.It means that a palace coup in Umno being prepared by Najib's rivals is being resisted stoutly. That can only mean further evidence of an incriminating nature to the PM and wife would be dangled in the public domain.
Can we speculate that a party implosion is in the works?
TERENCE NETTO has been a journalist for close on four decades. He likes the occupation because it puts him in contact with the eminent without being under the necessity to admire them.
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