OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS AT MUHYIDDIN'S DOOR: Najib's 'healthy' insistence not tantamount to 'stroke' denial

Regardless of whether Prime Minister Najib Razak is telling the truth about his health, his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin has managed to make another advance. Umno watchers say the die has been cast and Najib's denial he did not suffer a stroke will not stop Muhyiddin, who is now on high gear to take over as the next Umno president.

And the target timeline remains the same - before the 13th general election which must be called before June this year.Yes, the writing is on the wall for the underperforming Najib and his unpopular wife Rosmah Mansor.

It is clear that the power-brokers in Umno do not feel they have much chance of winning GE13 and even though their chances may be dimmed even more if they pulled an 11th hour stunt to oust Najib, their vested interests apparently come first. Get the seats, talk later  - this is the refrain running throughout the length and breadth of the Umno divisions in the country.

With winning seats in hand, the Umno war lords reckon they can knock together any kind of deal and with any party they choose to. With a weak Najib carrying the flag, burdened by a mountain of corruption scandals, there is only a dead end. Worse still, if Najib's loyalists pull through and win their seats, it would be next to impossible for Muhyiddin and others who covet country's top job to dislodge Najib. Former premier Mahathir Mohamad, acknowledged to be still the most powerful man in Umno, would really be relegated to has-been status if Najib wins his own mandate.

For these reasons, convoluted, complex and totally selfish, the Najibs must be made the proverbial scapegoats just like Abdullah Badawi was blamed for the poor BN performance in the 2008 election and forced to make way for Najib.

No direct denial of stroke, just an oblique insistence he is healthy

Many Umno analysts are interpreting the latest news leak that Najib suffered a small stroke and was forced to spend weeks recuperating in Singapore as a signal from the Muhyiddin camp that Mahathir has given him the green light for the 'mutiny'. Citing health reasons is one of the most common ways for leaders to step down in favor of either their rivals or chosen successors.

Najib's insistence that he was healthy, like the Bursa Malaysia (stock exchange), will not throw any spanner into the works.

"So Bursa Malaysia is healthy, while the market is healthy, the sukuk market is healthy, I’m also healthy. So don’t listen to the blogs, please,” Najib said when delivering a keynote address during the launching of the Exchange Traded Bonds and Sukuk (ETBS) on Tuesday.

But Najib's critics were quick to point point out that he did not issue any direct denial. In any case, not only have his rivals anticipated his response, they know they have the upperhand. And so do the Najibs.

"What if someone were to expose the medical records and log? Face it, they are too weak to fight. How can some one with health problems take the pressure of the toughest GE in the history of the country. Umno's own survival is at stake. You cannot expect the warlords to depend on a sickly leader. No way the Najibs can stand up to Mahathir and his gang," a veteran Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.

"We hear that negotiations have begun in earnest. Yes, it is the usual bickering over what they can get and also get to keep. A Tun-ship for him and a Toh-Puan for Rosmah. That sort of thing. But it won't be long lnow because there isn't much time to GE13 and the people must be given enough time to get used to Muhyiddin as the new PM or the whole thing will backfire and Pakatan Rakyat will benefit."

Changes in the corporate world

In the corporate world the effect is also being felt. The Umno-connected circle - yes, the cronies - are wondering who will be the Malay businessman or group that Muhyiddin will elevate and make use of to complement his rise in political power. It is inevitable there will be changes in the main players in Corporate Malaysia and not only amongst the Malay business community.

With business and politics so intertwined in Malaysia, it is no wonder that 'groupies' and 'wannabes' are anxiousl to sniff out which way the wind will blow in order to gain an advantage. For sure, there will also be business casualties as Muhyiddin will surely want to benefit his own cronies and supporters. Those connected too closely to the Najibs and the Badawis can expect to be dropped.

During the Tun Razak era, Umno had Abu Bakar Lajim as one of its 'patrons'. It was Bakar who donated the first RM1 million to construct the Umno headquarters at the Dayabumi building. Then in the Mahathir era, guys like Daim Zainuddin, Syed Kecik, Halim Saad, Yahya Ahmad, Rosli Man and Tajuddin Ramli rose to power, enriching themselves along with Mahathir who purportedly owns more than US$44 billion, making him the second richest ex-head of government in the world after Egypt's Hosni Mubarak.

Among the current crop of Malay tycoons, Syed Mokhtar Albukhary has managed to benefit the most. Although Syed Mokhtar may not be in the class of former Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin, he has managed to amass weallth from Umno towards the end of the Mahathir era, right through the Badawi administration and into Najib's rule.

But can Syed Mokhtar maintain his charm offensive through the Muhyiddin 'era' which arguably may be the shortest-ever given that Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat is poised to sweep to victory in the coming ballot.

Syed Mokhtar was also once a close associate of Muhyiddin's and this may be why he has so many projects in Johor state, where Muhyiddin comes from. Sad to say, according to the grapevine, Muhyiddin is none too happy with Syed Mokhtar these days. There has been speculation that Syed Mokhtar refused to give Muhyiddin political funds during the 2008 election and has continued to snub the latter's requests for GE13. As such, chances are high Syed Mokhtar will be dropped from the list of 'first-tier' cronies when Muhyiddin rides into power.

All waiting for Mahathir to 'go'?

How confident is Muhyiddin of taking over from Najib? Can the 66-year-old Muhyiddin, who has shown a surprisingly independent streak, do a better job than the amiable but feather-headed Najib? What does Muhyddin aspire for Malaysia? Does he plan to reform Umno or leave things as they are? Can Muhyiddin stand on his own without Mahathir's support? Is he merely another puppet for Mahathir and his sons? Or will he - like the 'soft' Abdullah Badawi - suddenly show a different persona once he becomes PM?

The answers to those questions can only be known in due time. For now, Muhyiddin has to play along with both Mahathir and Najib. Mahathir will surely want to continue hoarding more wealth. The 87-year-old will surely pressure Muhyiddin to farm out lucrative deals to his sons, but fortunately for Muhyiddin, he may not need to entertain Mahathir for too long.

In this respect, Muhyiddin can be expected to share the same sentiments of his party colleagues including Najib and Rosmah. They are all waiting for Mahathir to succumb to old age and finally get to be their own men at last!

Malaysia Chronicle