Monopolies to suffer in the event of unlikely Pakatan win, says Maybank

KUALA LUMPUR, April 4 – Monopolies in communications, essential foods, pharmaceuticals, and civil aviations will be most affected by a Pakatan Rakyat (PR) win in Election 2013, a research house said today.

Maybank Investment Bank (IB) Research came up with three possible outcomes for Election 2013 in its daily report today, and a win by PR was in none of them.

“In the unlikely outcome of a PR win, we expect the market’s immediate reaction to be negative,” the report said here.

Basing their prediction on the PR’s manifesto launched in February, Maybank IB also predicted that a PR win will affect independent power producers (IPPs) as the pact will restructure arrangements seen as unfair.

Tolled highways will also be affected as a PR government will take over highways to reduce tolls, while the construction, oil and gas sectors will be affected by a review of projects like the mass rapid transit (MRT) and the Refinery And Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID).

Maybank IB put a Barisan Nasional (BN) win with a smaller majority as its baseline scenario, while keeping the status quo would be the best-case scenario. The third scenario would be a hung parliament.

“The other outcomes apart from the above – BN securing a larger majority or regaining a two-thirds majority, or PR winning the 13th general elections with a simple majority – would be a major surprise, in our opinion,” said the report here.

According to the report, Malaysian equities will recover if BN wins, but the result will depend on the strength of its win. A hung parliament however will result in the market stagnating over concerns of the political situation and policies continuity.

Maybank IB claimed that the outcome of the elections is practically unpredictable, due to fluid political developments and the increase of new voters, including those who are still undecided.

“Predicting the outcome of 13GE has become an occupational hazard of sorts for political analysts,” the report said.

This comes as Bank Islam chief economist Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin was suspended after he predicted a narrow PR win in Election 2013 by Pakatan Rakyat (PR) as the most likely out of three possible scenarios.

Malaysia has been bracing for the polls since last year, as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak leads the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) for the first time against a bigger, stronger, and probably the most united opposition force to date.

Parliament was dissolved yesterday and state assemblies have followed suit, paving the way for the 13th general elections which is expected to be held by May 28.