Relax, Kit Siang: Gelang Patah fast dwindling into an Umno-BN INTERNAL QUARREL!

Something fishy is up! And the stink is coming from the south - Johor, to be precise. If DAP's Lim Kit Siang was congratulating himself for having caused a media storm when he switched seats to Gelang Patah, he has by now been overshadowed by news and speculation of why Umno's Ghani Othman - the Johor chief minister - should NOT take him on.

Yes, the biggest joke about the latest BN concerns is not about whether Ghani will really stand in Gelang Patah and what are his chances, but why should Ghani even get a seat and who is to blame for suggesting him in the first place?

Quarrels such as these do not bode well for the BN's image. It really reflects on the infighting and treachery that runs across the Umno-BN.

MCA-controlled the Star has been blamed for 'breaking' the Ghani-to-contest news and then setting up the opportunity for the Johor MB to 'valiantly' declare that he is ready to take on Gelang Patah so long as it fitted with Najib's plans.

Obviously, it did not! It looks like Najib, who was once rumored to be keen to slot in Omar Mustapha - the controversial Petronas director - into the Johor Umno seats lineup, might have ideas of his own. It is a matter of whether he can hammer these through.

Soon after, other Umno-linked media rushed out to attack MCA president Chua Soi Lek's, accusing him of being too afraid to take on Kit Siang in Gelang Patah, and therefore using the Star to pass on the hot potato to Umno and Ghani.

And Ghani, according to The Malaysian Insider - which has sometimes been accused of pushing 'messages' for the Najib camp - was so desperate he was only too happy to grab at Soi Lek's lifeline.

The greatest of mind games: DPM Kit Siang?

So which version is right? Does it really matter? The answer is yes and no.

As far as Kit Siang's prospects are concerned, unless former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad himself came down, there is little chance for the DAP adviser to fumble.

Gelang Patah is a Chinese-majority seat, a real rarity in Malaysia's heavily gerrymandered political landscape, and even if the Pakatan Rakyat fielded a Martian, the Martian would win so strong is the clamor for change amongst the non-Malays.

Otherwise Kit Siang - who stands to become a Deputy Prime Minister if PR wins GE13 - would not have fought tooth and nail to go there. Unlike Ghani, Kit Siang will really stand there.

There is also a third 'version' so to speak. Generally, until Nomination Day, whoever is now named can be changed because situations are still fluid and many last minute changes can and have to take place. Two recent high-profile retreats have come from no less than Lim Guan Eng and Anwar Ibrahim.

Also, whatever announcements made are aimed to test the market, allowing party bosses to evaluate the responses and comments from the people in that particular area, the incumbents as well as the aspirants.

All parties would have to reassess carefully if the responses are negative. That is only sensible and part of the overall maneuvering and strategizing that makes politics so exciting, especially in Malaysia. It is truly the greatest of mind games.

And perhaps this 'third version' best explains the sudden retraction of the Ghani possibility by the Umno-linked media. Maybe the Umno canvassers found the response from the folk at Nusajaya and Skudai - the two state seats under the Gelang Patah parliamentary umbrella - simply not strong or reassuring enough.

So, to cover up the embarrassment, of course, they put the blame on Soi Lek! Gelang Patah is after all an MCA seat.

If Ghani had drawn better response, would a party as greedy as Umno relinquish the opportunity to add another winning seat to its belt? The Star suggestion was not without basis and had the support of a few Umno ministers, including Khaled Nordin and Puad Zarkashi.

Malays or Chinese the king makers in Gelang Patah?

Be that as it may, let's look again at how assured Lim Kit Siang is in Gelang Patah.

The parliamentary seat, P162 for those who like lottery games, has about 79,000 voters where 54.06% are Chinese, 33.54 % Malays and 12.22% Indians. In 2008 MCA won with a majority of 8,851 votes, turnout was 77%. Gelang Patah is or perhaps was the MCA’s stronghold and the Chinese in that area have so far been able to accept BN despite its endemic corruption and racial prejudice. But what is the present situation now?

Numerous surveys have been conducted on the ground by workers of both BN and PR. The MCA, DAP and PAS have all been busy canvassing the grass roots at Gelang Patah and sources tell Malaysia Chronicle that findings by both sides of the divide conclude that the Chinese there will vote for the Opposition this time.

It is only the Malay voters who have yet to make their decision.

So unless Umno can swing in 8,000 Bangladeshi, Indonesian, Vietnamese, Pakistanis and Nepali voters into Gelang Patah, Kit Siang will win hands down.

Clamor for change has taken on a life of its own

Before the 2008 election, voters on the whole were aware that for any state to prosper, their state governments must have the backing of the federal government. But over the years, Kelantan has proven that this was not the case because even when Umno controlled the Kelantan state government, it couldn't do much to develop the state.

Even worst examples are Sabah and Sarawak, which are both BN held ever since joining the Federation of Malaysia in 1963. Yet these are the 2 poorest states in the country.

By comparison, the way Selangor and Penang, run by PKR and DAP since 2008, have continued to prosper is the final confirmation that such fears are fallacies.

The 2008 election was a political tsunami. The PR and its message of reform drove this storm right across the nation. In 2013, the desire for change is so strong that it has overtaken the PR. In fact, even PR has been caught by surprise at how great the tidal wave it helped create has become 5 years hence.

Beware the cures of Dr M 

But lest the PR think they have won even before the whistle has been blown, they would do well to keep a close watch on Mahathir Mohamad.

Mahathir may have refused to accept Kit Siang's challenge to contest at Gelang Patah but some Umno watchers say his pride has been scratched. Therefore, Mahathir is now up to something to get back at Kit Siang. Just like he is always after Anwar, Mahathir's venom will now also be directed at the DAP adviser.

But will fielding Ghani Othman work? Whether Mahathir will support the Johor MB remains to be seen. One thing for sure, Dr M is no sentimental fool. He won't back Ghani unless he believes Ghani has a chance.

And Ghani is as scared as hell. He knows that he will be sacrificed. Despite his professed willingness to obey whatever Najib orders, he is actually most reluctant but has no choice. After all, who is Ghani Othman in Umno? His position in Johor is only at the behest of the late Sultan, who liked him. The current Ruler is said to be less fond of him.

A battle ground for the political senior citizens?

Perhaps this is why, Ghani had offered to 'sacrifice' himself in Gelang Patah. It is his only shot at a seat and now due to poor feedback, even this 'sure-loser' looks like it will be withdrawn from him.

Even Muhyiddin, whom he succeeded, cannot help him. Neither men have enough grass roots support. Ghani has supporters only in his constituency and that is not good enough for Muhyiddin.

Therefore Ghani is alone and at the mercy of the Najib camp. But before one writes Ghani off, he still has some potential and compared to Soi Lek, he has the better chance to give Kit Siang a fight for his money.

With Mahathir calling nearly everyday for Kit Siang to retire and let the young ones have a chance, it looks like Gelang Patah has become a battle ground for the politically aged and infirm. A place for the 'expendables'!

Kit Siang, despite being the oldest, still has by far the most zest. Next is Ghani and sorry to say, despite his high sex drive, the weakest is Soi Lek!

Malaysia Chronicle