My Prime Minister said the reason his coalition was returned on 05 May 2013 with much fewer seats than in the 2008 General Election (GE12) was a “Chinese Tsunami.” Dato’ Sri Haji Mohammed Tun Razak used the label Chinese Tsunami as a sound-bite for “the Chinese have abandoned Barisan Nasional (BN).”
Najib said much more, but I will restrict my discussion to the Chinese Tsunami.
Najib’s comments resulted in rage-inducing headlines in Malay newspapers owned by the PM’s party, the United Malays National Organization (Umno). Utusan asked “What more do Chinese People want?” Kosmo! said “Chinese Voters are 2-faced.”
Najib did not denounce the views expressed by his newspapers.
The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the second largest component party of BN, agrees ethnically Chinese Malaysians have abandoned the MCA.
The MCA has said it will refuse all offers of cabinet positions. MCA leaders are resigning from government posts. I suppose they are doing so because they recognize their shameful performance in GE13 will cause their Umno masters to treat them even more like the puppets and conniving thieves voters perceive them to be.
The MCA is closing down several service centres. Some say the MCA is keeping its pre-election promise. Others say the MCA wants to “punish” voters who didn’t support them – seemingly forgetting that many did vote for MCA candidates.
Overall, the leaders of the MCA appear to believe there has indeed been a Chinese Tsunami, in so far as this term means large numbers of Chinese voters no longer wish the MCA to represent them.
There has been an outcry in the social media (all traditional media parrot Najib) and online news portals over the race-based analysis which underlies the conclusion that the root cause of Najib’s failure to deliver more seats in GE13 compared to GE12 is the loss of the Chinese votebank.
I have seen two data-based responses to Najib’s claim that there has been a Chinese Tsunami. The first is contained in a Note posted by a Facebook user, Tai Zee Kin, who identifies himself as a Malaysian citizen trained in the law.
Zee Kin writes charmingly (“please do not read while driving,” “face palm”) and throws in technical terms and attenuated references to academic authors to show us he really has done what he claims – he once wrote an undergraduate dissertation about democracy.
Zee Kin begins with what he calls an unreliable source – which he doesn’t name. He says the DAP contested in 91 % of constituencies with “high” ethnically Chinese voters. I’m unclear what he means by “high,” though he alludes to ranking by ratio of Chinese voters. I suppose he’s saying the DAP’s GE13 strategy was to compete in areas with relatively high concentrations of Chinese voters.
Zee Kin says:
“DAP gained 10 seats for contesting in 91% (pls rebut if u have better source) highest ranked Chinese population ratio seats, and have a net GAIN of 10 seats, PKR and PAS combined running in the rest, and have net LOSE of 3 seats. I think that's what NAJIB meant by "Chinese Tsunami". he uses electoral system. then again, i didn't agree with him.” (sic)
Again, I’m unclear what “high” means. I’ll speculate that the DAP, like all other parties in Malaysia, recognizes the reality of race in post-colonial Malaysia ruled for 56 years by a coalition with the same race-based agenda as the colonists. Therefore the DAP considered it best to use its limited funds to compete in constituencies with a relatively large numbers of Chinese – which also happens to be urban areas. [The DAP (Democratic Action Party) is still shaking off the perception that it’s primarily Chinese.]
After saying he doesn’t agree with Najib, Zee Kin says if the term Tsunami is to be used, it’s more useful to say it’s an Urban Tsunami than to say it’s a Chinese tsunami.
What I like about Zee Kin’s approach is that he tries to see what straws Najib may be clutching at in order to make the Chinese Tsunami claim. And Zee Kin shows it was one straw, grown from a probably unreliable seed (source).
That was the first “data-based response.” (My own post immediately after GE13 was about the Elections Commission; it was based on impressions, some of them statistical in nature, but without any actual GE13 numbers.)
The second response I've seen is by Tommy Thomas, a senior lawyer who has a reputation for acute analysis and who writes pithily.
Tommy’s piece was published in Malaysiakini as a COMMENT – which is strange because the data he used was in tables credited to Malaysiakini. I’ll let that pass.
Unlike Zee Kin, Tommy didn’t write about the individual parties (e.g. MCA, DAP) which make up the ruling coalition (BN) and the challenger, Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
Tommy focused on the coalitions. Tommy’s analysis is solid, covering several facets of GE13, and very ably shows why the Election Commission is culpable:
“. . . [the Election Commission (EC)] does not even give the semblance of being an independent umpire in a contest between two coalitions.
Instead, the EC has been most partisan, always favouring the ruling BN. Bridget Welsh, a well-respected and independent scholar, highlighted in Malaysiakini, the impact of the increased numbers in the electoral roll which were out of line with historical patterns of voter registration.
As examples, she referred to the 21 percent increase in Bachok and 29 percent in Bukit Gantang. Apart from irregularities concerning early and postal voting of some 240,000 voters, double voting and phantom voting have also allegedly took place. Many others have already written about these flaws in the voting process.”
Instead, the EC has been most partisan, always favouring the ruling BN. Bridget Welsh, a well-respected and independent scholar, highlighted in Malaysiakini, the impact of the increased numbers in the electoral roll which were out of line with historical patterns of voter registration.
As examples, she referred to the 21 percent increase in Bachok and 29 percent in Bukit Gantang. Apart from irregularities concerning early and postal voting of some 240,000 voters, double voting and phantom voting have also allegedly took place. Many others have already written about these flaws in the voting process.”
I am writing this piece because I am a Malaysian who is deeply concerned about race-based politics. I have often blogged about race, and how discussion of race is inevitable in a country with Malaysia’s history of immigration and the modern, universal values of equal rights regardless of race, colour or creed.
So, to some extent I agree that we should attempt race-based analysis – as Najib demonstrated in his Chinese Tsunami sound-bite.
Our purpose in doing such analysis should be to seek out, pull out and destroy racially-polarizing weeds. Tommy does this very well:
“Kelantan and Terengganu are states in the Malay hinterland. Malay voters constitute at least 90% of the electorate in each state. BN secured 51.42% in Terengganu and 46.24% in Kelantan. 48.47% of the voters in Terengganu supported Pakatan, while 53.7% of Kelantan voted for Pakatan.
This is the best proof that BN was telling another of its big lies when it described Sunday's result as a "Chinese tsunami". The plain and obvious fact is Pakatan could not have received a total of 5.62 million votes nationwide if only the Chinese had supported them. Instead, substantial numbers of Malays, Indians, Kadazans and Dayaks voted for Pakatan.”
This is the best proof that BN was telling another of its big lies when it described Sunday's result as a "Chinese tsunami". The plain and obvious fact is Pakatan could not have received a total of 5.62 million votes nationwide if only the Chinese had supported them. Instead, substantial numbers of Malays, Indians, Kadazans and Dayaks voted for Pakatan.”
The only basis upon which the likes of Utusan and Kosmo! can make claims like “ungrateful Chinese have deserted us” is a deeply entrenched and well-fed racial mindset typical of Mahathir, Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Noordin. The so-called data to support the Chinese Tsunami claim is weak, to put it mildly. As Zee Kin also says, the Chinese are but a ripple in the Urban Tsunami.
I applaud Tai Zee Kin for his attempt to justify his PM, to try to find some plausibility for Najib’s sound-bite, while yet disagreeing with Najib. I applaud Tommy Thomas for helping Najib by pointing out to his detractors in Umno what’s so obvious to so many:
“In the second decade of the 21st century, it is difficult to believe that there are politicians in any part of the globe who question and insult the world's great religions and the contents of the Holy Books, who call for such books to be burnt and for places of worship to be destroyed. . . .
. . . One hopes that with the decisive defeats of Perkasa leaders Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Noordin, Umno will respect the will of the electorate and cease such abominable conduct. Umno must recognise that we are a moderate, tolerant people who accept plurality and diversity.”
. . . One hopes that with the decisive defeats of Perkasa leaders Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Noordin, Umno will respect the will of the electorate and cease such abominable conduct. Umno must recognise that we are a moderate, tolerant people who accept plurality and diversity.”
It’s not about the Chinese. It’s about Umno heroes who love, feed and promote racism.
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