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Monday, May 6, 2013

How The Malay Vote Was Lost


The Malays make up over 45% of the total population in Penang. However Malays make up only 35.7% of registered voters in Penang.  So even if all the 35.7% of voters who are Malays came out to vote, they will still lose to the Chinese. This is even more drastic in Kuala Lumpur.  Chinese make up 43.2% of the population of Kuala Lumpur. However 52.15% of registered voters in KL are Chinese. Malays on the other hand make up over 50% of the population in KL. However registered voters who are Malay make up 35.7% only.
OutSyed The Box


Before I forget allow me to write the conclusion to this blogpost first :  

The majority race of a State does not guarantee their victory at the Polls. The  success of any one racial group at the Polls depends on how many members of that racial grouping are :

i. registered voters 
ii. how many of them actually came out to vote on Polling Day.

Yesterday at about 3:30PM I blogged this urgently :  URGENT : PENGUNDI MELAYU KENA KELUAR UNDI SEKARANG

There was a reason for this. Yesterday at Bangsar there were thousands of Chinese voters. In the queue, Chinese folks were saying 'I spent RM400 to fly from Singapore to vote'. One guy said he flew his son in from Hong Kong to vote. Another person said he had come back from Australia just to vote. The Chinese were out in huge numbers to vote.

First of all we must congratulate the Chinese for their diligence, their commitment and also their faith in the electoral process. This is a democracy. We determine our fate through the ballot. That is the process that we have all agreed upon. So we must salute the Chinese voters for having so much trust in the democratic process. 

However who we vote for and why we vote for them is something else. Dont forget that the German people once voted for Hitler and the Nazis - also through the democratic ballot.  

Then I also noticed that there were very, very few Malay voters (in Sek Keb Bukit Bandaraya). After voting I received calls from a friend of mine who said the same thing. Chinese voter turnout was huge in Kelana Jaya and Shah Alam. The Malay voters were not as many. Then my friend said he was getting calls from Johor saying the same thing. Where were the Malay voters?

Two of my Malay staff who were supposed to vote did not do so for flimsy reasons ('kereta tak datang ambil' and 'ramai sangat tunggu queue'). That is when I decided to Blog the  URGENT : PENGUNDI MELAYU KENA KELUAR UNDI SEKARANG at about 3:30 PM yesterday.

I am sad to say that I did sms some folks who should have known better and who were in a position to do something about this. But the reply I received was "Not true".  

Now here are some interesting facts. Before May 5th, Helen Ang - a  most enlightened Chinese (in the Malaysian context, and  to avoid doubts, this is a compliment Helen) blogged the following graph and made an observation that has played itself out completely yesterday. Here is the graph from Helen Ang :


In this graph, the horizontal coloured bands (blue, red, yellow, green) represent the demographic proportions  (Malay, Chinese, Indians, Others). The percentages above the bands (beside the dots) represent the percentage of registered voters from a particular racial group. 

What is clear is that in most states listed above, the percentage of registered voters who are Chinese exceeds the percentage of Chinese in the state. For example in Terengganu, Chinese make up only 2.6% of the population. But they make up 3.55% of registered voters.

This means the Chinese are diligent in registering as voters.

In the West coast states with larger Chinese populations, this assumes a different picture altogether. In Penang for example, Chinese are only 45.6% of the population. Logically they cannot win the elections by themselves.  However in Penang, Chinese make up over 53.38% of registered voters.  

The Malays make up over 45% of the total population in Penang. However Malays make up only 35.7% of registered voters in Penang.  So even if all the 35.7% of voters who are Malays came out to vote, they will still lose to the Chinese.

So although the Malays are the majority race (or almost majority) in Penang, it is of no use to them politically because not enough Malays are registered voters to make them dominate at the Polls.  What is the use of being the majority race if your people are not registered to vote? (Macam lelaki tak ada pelir lah). 

The Chinese in Penang are in the minority but because more Chinese are registered to vote (compared to Malays) this means for practical purposes the Chinese are the majority. Not the Malays. More Chinese than Malays can vote in Penang.

This is even more drastic in Kuala Lumpur.  Chinese make up 43.2% of the population of Kuala Lumpur. However 52.15% of registered voters in KL are Chinese. Malays on the other hand make up over 50% of the population in KL. However registered voters who are Malay make up 35.7% only.

So even before Polling Day, the registered Chinese voters have already outnumbered registered Malay voters both in Penang and Kuala Lumpur.  The Chinese have already won over the Malays even before Parliament was dissolved.

It is of totally no use if you are a majority race but your people have not registered as voters. If your people are not registered to vote, you have already lost the elections. 

So when the Election Commission says 'we had an 80% turnout' they are not referring to the entire population of Malaysia. They are ONLY referring to the number of registered voters

Folks, if you are getting bored with my repetitive style, this is only half the story. The more important part of the story is that even if you are registered to vote, come Polling Day, you must wake up early in the morning, mandi, pakai baju, pakai bedak etc and then go and vote. 

Imagine if you are a registered voter but you did not go and vote. Your racial group has  lost the election again. If your people did not wake up in the morning and go and vote, you have lost the election. 

This is where the Chinese Tsunami gained its momentum on 5th May 2013. Firstly a higher proportion of Chinese than Malays are registered voters. Secondly the Chinese came out with a vengeance to vote on May 5th.

Many Malays (among those who are registered) did not vote yesterday. Two of my staff are prime examples, although Intan did go back in the afternoon and vote.

Here is a simple example to illustrate this. Say there are 100 people in an area - 60 Malays and 40 Chinese. Say 70% of the Chinese are registered to vote. That is 28 registered Chinese voters. Say only 50% of the Malays are registered to vote. That is only 30 registered Malay voters.

On Polling Day 90% of the registered Chinese went to vote. That is 25 Chinese votes - all going to one party DAP. Say only 60% of Malays went out to vote. That is only 18 Malay voters. The Chinese have already won. The Malays have already lost.

It is worse if the 18 Malay votes are split between BN, PAS and PKR. The Malays will never win against the united Chinese.

For this little bit of extremely very important pencerahan, we must be eternally grateful to Helen Ang.

So Melayu malas nak daftar, Melayu malas nak mengundi.  How do we overcome this?

1. Lets have automatic registration of all people above the age of 21 years. This means we must empower the Elections Commission to access the database at the Registration Department on a continuous basis.  

If everyone above 21 is an automatically registered voter then the voting patterns will not be so far removed from the racial demographics of the country. This is better for the long term health of the country.

2. Lets pass a law that makes voting compulsory - like Singapore. Everyone must vote. So that come Polling Day, everyone must put a vote in the box. 

There are other issues as well. But the Malays lost the vote (BN, PAS and even PKR) because fewer Malays than Chinese are registered to vote, and fewer Malays than Chinese actually came out to vote.

To repeat, of course this is not the only reason for the poor performance yesterday, but the majority race of a State does not guarantee their victory at the Polls. The  success of any one racial group at the Polls depends on how many members of that racial group are 

i. registered voters 
ii. how many of them actually came out to vote on Polling Day.

The Malays fell behind the Chinese in respect of both. 

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