In the aftermath of May 5th (part 9)

You may argue that the Chinese voters have rejected the Chinese from Barisan Nasional and hence the Chinese should not be in the government. But if the Sultan says he wants Chinese in the government then Barisan Nasional will have to make sure that there are Chinese in the government. And if the Sultan says he does not want certain people in the government then these people will have to be dropped from the EXCO list (or as the Menteri Besar).

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Azmin: I will respect and uphold Sultan’s decision

PKR deputy president Azmin Ali said the decision on who would be the Selangor Menteri Besar lies ultimately with the Sultan of Selangor and he will respect it totally. Despite his earlier strong objections over the way party president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail had submitted a candidate's name, allegedly without the knowledge of the state party's leadership, Azmin said that whoever was eventually chosen would have his full backing.

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Okay, how do you ensure that the percentage of seats you win almost matches the percentage of popular votes that you win (say 50% of the votes versus 50% of the seats as opposed to 40% of the votes versus 60% of the seats)?

This was what I wrote in part 8 of this series:

I followed the rally in Ipoh last night (on live streaming) and would like to touch on what Dr. Lee Boon Chye and Anwar Ibrahim said in that rally. Dr Lee lamented that he won with a majority of only 15,000 votes while if there had not been any cheating he would have won with a majority of 30,000 instead.

Can you see that Dr Lee was complaining that he won but that he won with half the majority that he should have? According to Dr Lee, his majority should have been 30,000 instead of just 15,000.

Now, I am not going to argue whether Dr Lee is right or wrong. Let us give him the benefit of the doubt and agree that he is right: that he was cheated out of a 30,000 majority and because of that his majority was only 15,000.

That, to me, is not what Dr Lee should be focusing on. In fact, this is what most Pakatan Rakyat people talk about: the majority that they won. And that is not what a good election strategy is all about.

Barisan Nasional cannot get these large majorities that Pakatan Rakyat can. In many seats that Barisan Nasional won their majorities were very slim. But this does not upset Barisan Nasional as it does Pakatan Rakyat. And this is because Barisan Nasional is not focused on vote majorities like Pakatan Rakyat is but on seat majorities.

Pakatan Rakyat’s support base is concentrated -- hence these large majorities. Barisan Nasional’s support base is spread out, especially Umno. So, with the same number of votes, Barisan Nasional can win 50 seats versus only 30 seats for Pakatan Rakyat (see below).

Pakatan Rakyat can win 30,000 or more vote majorities in the seats it contests. But that would mean it is ‘robbing’ another seat of a win. Barisan Nasional may win with a mere 10,000-vote majority but if it wins with a 10,000-vote majority in three seats, this would be three seats versus only one for Pakatan Rakyat.

That is how to win an election with less than 50% of the popular votes like Barisan Nasional -- or lose the election with more than 50% of the votes like Pakatan Rakyat.

Now, on the issue of the Menteri Besar of Selangor.

I wrote earlier that His Highness the Sultan of Selangor had written to DAP, PKR and PAS asking the three Pakatan Rakyat parties whom they want as the Menteri Besar. All three replied to the Sultan’s letter naming Khalid Ibrahim.

Some readers, probably Azmin Ali’s supporters, posted some very nasty comments calling me a liar and saying that no such thing happened (I deleted these nasty comments which were very personal in nature). Well, you can choose to believe it or you can choose not to believe it. Nevertheless this did happen.

Azmin has been told (which he admits) that the power and prerogative to appoint the Menteri Besar lies with His Highness. The Sultan can even choose to reject the name or names suggested by Pakatan Rakyat and need not explain the reason why. His Highness can even reject the names of the EXCO Members, as His Highness the Sultan of Kelantan did last week.

Yes, Their Highnesses the Sultans (and His Majesty the Agong) are just Constitutional Monarchs who must ‘listen to the advise’ of the Menteri Besar (or to the Prime Minister for the Agong). But this does not mean the Monarchs are Rubber-Stamp Monarchs even if they may be Constitutional Monarchs.

Can you remember in 2008 when His Highness the Sultan of Selangor rejected Pakatan Rakyat’s candidate for Deputy Menteri Besar, a Chinese from DAP? Finally this man was appointed the Speaker of the Selangor State Assembly as a sort of ‘compromise’.

The bottom line is: the Monarchs do have a certain amount of power and authority. It is just how far they want to exert this authority. Most times, by convention, the Monarchs do not meddle too much in issues concerning politics. But did not His Highness the Sultan of Johor just issue a statement saying that he insists that some Chinese representatives be appointed to the Johor EXCO?

You may argue that the Chinese voters have rejected the Chinese from Barisan Nasional and hence the Chinese should not be in the government. But if the Sultan says he wants Chinese in the government then Barisan Nasional will have to make sure that there are Chinese in the government. And if the Sultan says he does not want certain people in the government then these people will have to be dropped from the EXCO list (or as the Menteri Besar).

You may say you don’t like this and you want the Sultans/Agong to butt out. Well, what if they don’t? Do you want to launch a revolution and ‘storm the Bastille’? Remember that His Majesty the Agong is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces while the state Monarchs are Colonels-in-Chief of the different branches of the Armed Forces.

So, who holds the guns? Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Rakyat, or the Monarchs?

And it is the Agong, not the Prime Minister, who holds the power to suspend Parliament and declare an Emergency. And the Agong with 100,000 guns and I don’t know how many tanks behind him will have the final say.

TO BE CONTINUED