Indians are for Pakatan

The GE13 results show that BN was wrong in assuming that it has regained the community’s support.

By Satees Muniandy

In the build-up to GE13, Barisan Nasional leaders, particularly those from MIC, engaged in a lot of chest thumping about Indian support for the coalition returning to pre-2008 levels.

They claimed that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s overtures had cooled down the community’s anger with the BN government that became obvious following the 2007 Hindraf protest and the subsequent ISA crackdown on its key leaders.

Leaving BN propaganda aside, there were some credible claims that the community felt let down by some Pakatan Rakyat state governments, particularly Kedah.

The PAS-led government of the rice-bowl state had failed to honour a promise to declare Thaipusam a state holiday. Furthermore, there were complaints that the sole Indian representative in the state executive council, S Manikumar of PKR, had failed to resolve several issues of concern to members of the community living in southern Kedah.

Nevertheless, observers noted that the community was generally pleased with the performance of the Penang and Selangor governments, particularly in relation to employment opportunities for Indians and issues regarding land for Hindu temples and Tamil schools.

In the days approaching GE13, Najib appeared to have pulled off a coup when Hindraf chairman P Waythamoorthy signed a memorandum of understanding with his government and subsequently urged the Indian community to return BN to Parliament with a two-third majority.

There was immediate disapproval from his estranged Hindraf associates, including his brother, P Uthayakumar, who in the eyes of many Indians is still the leader of the movement.

Waythamoorthy’s perceived betrayal of the Indian cause provoked strong protests in many parts of the nation. This did not bode well for BN, at least on paper.

To make matters worse, it turned out on nomination day that BN had decided to back the candidacy of maverick politician Zulkifli Noordin, just weeks after it became known that he had insulted Hinduism in a talk recorded on video and uploaded to the Internet.

So how did the Indians vote on May 5?

Let us first look at how MIC fared. It won only four of the nine parliament seats it sought and five of 18 state seats—an abysmal performance by any reckoning.

It lost in the parliamentary contests for Sungai Siput, Kapar, Subang, Teluk Kemang and Kota Raja—all urban constituencies where Malays form the majority of voters. This means MIC cannot blame poor Chinese support for BN as a cause for its defeat.

Indeed, it is now well known that 60% to 80% of support for BN came from the Malays, strongly indicating that Indian voters—at least those in urban areas—ditched MIC in droves in GE13.

The Indian swing to Pakatan was so strong that even the strong Malay support for BN could not rescue MIC in these constituencies. This has been acknowledged by no less a figure than the party’s secretary-general, T Murugesan.

In Kota Raja, for example, Malays make up 44% of the electorate, with Indians and Chinese accounting for 29% and 25% respectively. The PAS candidate, Siti Mariah Mahmud, won the seat by a thumping 29,395 majority, with a vote share of 64% of the turnout.

Assuming, at best, 45% to 50% Malay and 80% to 90% Chinese support for Pakatan, 75% of the Indians must have given Siti Mariah their votes.

This support proportion is roughly applicable in every one of the five parliament seats that MIC failed to secure.

Nevertheless, MIC is still in denial with regard to its Indian support in rural areas. Its spokesmen have referred to its slim victories in Cameron Highlands, Segamat, Hulu Selangor and Tapah to argue its case.

However, a closer look at these constituencies reveals a different picture altogether.

First, Indians account for only 10% to 14% of the voters in these constituencies, compared to the likes of Kota Raja with 29% Indians, Sungai Siput (21%) and Teluk Kemang (21%).

Second, an analysis of the voting streams shows that most Indians actually voted for Pakatan. For example, the predominantly Indian streams in Cameron Highlands—such as those in Ladang Sungai Palas, Ladang Blue Valley and Kampung Raja—voted overwhelmingly for DAP’s M Manogaran. The Indian support for DAP in these streams was about 65%.

Finally, these constituencies share a unique characteristic in that the Orang Asli, a known vote bank for BN, form a sizeable proportion of the electorate. They represent 20% to 30% of voters in Cameron Highlands and Tapah. Their votes negated the Indian support for Pakatan candidates.

The Felda voters

In Hulu Selangor and Segamat, BN has another large community it can count on—the Felda settlers. It is estimated that the Felda streams gave 90% to 95% support to BN.

An analysis of the voting in the Kedah state constituency of Lunas gives a clear illustration of how even rural Indians rejected BN in GE13.

The electorate breakdown in Lunas is 46% Malays, 28% Chinese and 25% Indians. BN boasts that it has 55% to 60% Malay support in Kedah. If this figure is applied to Lunas, then the winner, PKR’s Azman Nasruddin, must have received 40% to 45% Malay support, along with 80% to 85% Chinese support. For him to have won with the huge majority of 9,084, his Indian support had to be between 75% and 80%.

The same argument can be applied to other rural or semi-urban constituencies with large Indian voting populations where MIC was defeated, namely Bukit Selambau (Kedah), Sabai (Pahang), Hutan Melintang (Perak) and Ijok (Selangor).

Indian candidates representing Pakatan fared extremely well in GE13, with solid Indian electorate support. Eight Indian MPs and 18 state assemblymen from Pakatan parties were victorious in GE13.

Constituencies with the highest number of Indian voters in the country, like Prai (36%), Seri Andalas (35%) and Buntong (48%) witnessed massive victories for Pakatan candidates.

P Ramasamy, one of Penang’s deputy chief ministers and the DAP candidates for Prai, won a whopping 78% of the votes and his rival, L Krishnan of MIC, was only about 900 votes away from losing his deposit.

In Sri Andalas, PKR’s Xavier Jayakumar smashed his rival from MIC, youth chief T Mohan, with a majority of 15,633 votes.

The Indian-majority voting streams in both Prai and Seri Andalas gave between 70% and 80% of their votes to Pakatan.

This analysis estimates the Indian support in urban areas for Pakatan to be between 70% and 80% and in rural areas between 60% and 70%. MIC’s few victories were due to the strong backing of either Felda settlers or Orang Asli.

GE13 has dispelled the false belief that Indian support has returned to BN.

The writer is political assistant to Penang Deputy Chief Minister (II) P Ramasamy