It’s all about strategy

Then came the 2008 general election and the impressive results gave everyone a lot of hope. So everything that was said earlier was now forgotten. But what they forgot is that Barisan Nasional won 63% of the seats on just 52% of the votes. In 1969, they won 66% of the seats on just 49% of the votes. How many percent of the votes do you think Barisan Nasional would need to garner in 2013 to still win more than 50% of the seats?

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

“We are not interested in the Election Commission fixing the mistakes in the coming 14th general election,” Anwar Ibrahim shouted at the rally in Johor last week. “We want the commission to declare that Pakatan won the 13th GE!”

“Never in the history of mankind, have dictators, with tanks and guns, been able to stand up against the might of people power,” he said. “So defend your rights. This is not about Anwar. It is about the future of Malaysia and the younger generation,” he said.

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I have been writing about my personal experience in Malaysia’s general elections for a long time now.

I related what happened in the 2004 general election when I was in charge of the opposition’s campaign in Putrajaya and about the knife fight I was involved in against eight Umno thugs and how our candidate’s son was beaten up and how the police hauled me to the police station and the “back off or go home in a coffin” promise I gave the shocked Putrajaya Head of the Special Branch.

I explained that the opposition normally attracts crowds in the tens of thousands at its ceramah while the ruling party can’t even attract 100 people but yet the ruling party will win that seat.

I warned that it is seats and not votes that will give you the government and that majority votes does not translate to majority seats while Barisan Nasional can still form the government with less than 50% of the popular votes while the opposition may need close to 60% of the votes to take over.

I highlighted the fact that 70% of the seats are in the rural areas plus in the Malay heartland and if Pakatan Rakyat captures just the urban areas then it is not going to win the election.

I cautioned that the two East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak control 25% of the seats in Parliament and are Barisan Nasional’s ‘fixed deposit’ and unless Pakatan Rakyat can capture not less than 30 of the 57 seats there then forget about forming the federal government. 

I reminded you that West Malaysia has only 165 parliamentary seats and at best Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional will share about half each (80-85, 81-84, 82-83, etc.) -- which means a ‘hung parliament’ -- and hence Sabah and Sarawak are going to be the ‘Kingmakers’.

I told you the story about how I helped compile the evidence of election fraud soon after the 2004 general election to attach as evidence in the various Election Petition’s that we filed in court but later PAS and Umno did a deal to withdraw their respective Election Petitions -- except for the Election Petition that Umno filed against PKR’s President, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, that still proceeded in court (and which Dr Wan Azizah subsequently and surprisingly won).

Yes, I told you about all this and much, much more. And I told you all this not just after the 5th May 2013 general election but for a long time since the 1999, 2004 and 2008 general elections.

So don’t shout and scream about all these issues. Stop telling me about what I already know and about what I have been telling you myself for a long time. What you are telling me is only 10% of what I already know.

Have you had meetings with the Election Commission (SPR) to complain about Malaysia’s unfair election system? I have.

Have you told the SPR what needs to be done to make Malaysia’s election system fairer? I have.

Have you heard what the SPR has to say about our complaints and proposals? I have.

Have you engaged the camp commandants of the various military camps all over Malaysia in discussions about how the postal voting system is conducted and how come 100% of the military votes invariably end up in favour of Barisan Nasional? I have.

Have you sneaked in to the police station to spy on the police personnel voting using the postal voting system to witness how it is done? I have.

So don’t act shocked. You knew what was going on. I told you what was going on. You knew what was going to happen on 5th May 2013. I told you what was going to happen on 5th May 2013. But what did you do about it?

I even once, back in 2004, proposed that the opposition boycott the general election. It is pointless to participate in a general election that is fraudulent and in which you are going to get whacked anyway. By participating in something fraudulent you are just giving legitimacy to a corrupt system.

In short, launch a boycott and a civil disobedience campaign and bring this to the attention of the world that the government is illegitimate because it is holding on to power without getting properly voted into office since Malaysians are boycotting the election.

But the opposition did not think it was a good idea. In 1999, they had won Kelantan and Terengganu plus 45 parliamentary seats. If they participate in the 2004 general election they can add Perlis and Kedah and to that list plus maybe even increase the 45 parliamentary seats to 80 or 90.

Instead, they ended up losing Terengganu and got reduced from 45 parliamentary seats to just 21. Barisan Nasional won 91% of the seats on just 64% of the popular votes.

Then came the 2008 general election and the impressive results gave everyone a lot of hope. So everything that was said earlier was now forgotten. But what they forgot is that Barisan Nasional won 63% of the seats on just 52% of the votes. In 1969, they won 66% of the seats on just 49% of the votes. How many percent of the votes do you think Barisan Nasional would need to garner in 2013 to still win more than 50% of the seats?

Well, what the opposition politicians are trying to tell us is that if you win 51% of the votes then this would mean you have won the election and therefore you will be the legitimate government.

What a load of bullshit! Have you not been listening to what we have been saying these last 15 years?

It is not about votes. It is about seats. And, more importantly, it is about how you spread out these votes to make sure that your votes are in the less densely populated areas and not concentrated in the more highly populated areas.

Do you think this only happens in Malaysia?

Well, look at what happened to the UK in 2010. Look at the map below. Study the graphics. See where Labour’s voters live. See where Conservative’s voters live. See where Liberal Democrat’s voters live. Study the spread of the voters. Then understand how you can win or lose the UK election.

Then understand, as well, how you can also win or lose the election in Malaysia.

Of course there was gerrymandering. Of course there was also fraud. But solving gerrymandering and fraud is still not going to give you the government unless you also get the spread right.

While we can blame SPR for the first two sins, the opposition must take the blame for the last sin.

The opposition acted like a bull in a china shop. They still are, in fact. But they lacked strategy. And this is partly (or maybe even more instrumental) why they did not get in to Putrajaya, gerrymandering and fraud notwithstanding.

And before you say that that is the UK and we are talking about Malaysia, well, is not Malaysia using UK’s election system?

Maybe there is no fraud in the UK. Maybe the gerrymandering is not so bad in the UK. Maybe the voter variance between constituencies is not that critical and quite acceptable in the UK. But the party that garnered lesser votes still won more seats in the UK even without fraud and a serious problem of gerrymandering and voter variance.