PAS on the prowl to recapture Terengganu

While BN is eyeing to wrestle Kedah, Selangor and Kelantan from the hands of Pakatan, and Pakatan is ambitiously blasting BN's "fixed deposit states" of Johor and Negeri Sembilan, PAS, which once took Terengganu in 1999, is on the prowl to repeat the history just as most people believe BN can retain the state administration.

The anti-establishment sentiment that roars across the nation may work in the east coast state.

BN's confidence could have been justified before the candidates were named, but after that, things started to change. There is strong likelihood Terengganu may fall into the hands of PAS again because of the candidates BN has picked.

Quite a number of incumbent BN reps belonging to the faction of former MB Idris Jusoh have been dropped from BN's line-up, including Din Adam of Bukit Besi, Ramlan Ali of Jabi, Mohd Zawawi Ismail of Kuala Berang, Rosol Wahid of Ajil, Mohd Ariffin Abdullah of Paka, Khazan Che Mat of Batu Rakit and Abdul Halim Jusoh of Permaisuri.

State leaders who could intimidate Ahamd Said's status as menteri besar have been fielded for parliamentary seats, including the incumbent Jertih state assemblyman Idris Jusoh (for Besut) and state Umno deputy chairman cum incumbent Pengkalan Berangan rep Yahya Khatib Mohamad (for Marang).

Meanwhile the incumbent MP for Kuala Nerus Datuk Mohd Nasir Ibrahim will defend his seat while another senior party leader Mohamad Awang Tera, the incumbent Cukai assemblyman has been dropped.

BN claims such an arrangement has been made to allow more new faces, but there are a number of controversial names in the candidates' list, including Datuk Rosli Mat Hassan running for Dungun parliamentary seat, Datuk Che Mat Jusoh running for Batu Buruk state seat (defeated in 2004 in the same constituency), the incumbent MP for Setiu Datuk Mohd Jidin Shafee now running for Permaisuri state seat, and incumbent Kemasik assemblyman Rosli Othman who was implicated in corruption cases but was later acquitted.

The list is seen by outsiders ad "Ahmad Said's list" and it is obvious that the MB has tried to consolidate his status with the list. Nevertheless, this has triggered worries of stability and BN is in danger of losing Setiu, once seen as a safe seat for the ruling coalition.

The incumbent MP for Setiu and Umno's divisional chairman for Setiu Datuk Mohd Jidin Shafee is not popular among the grassroots and is in bad terms with other divisional leaders. There was once when DPM Muhyiddin Yassin attended a function in Setiu, no other divisional leaders were present safe for Mohd Jidin, showing that a rift was already taking shape.

This time, Ahmad Said has kept Mohd Jidin, putting him in the state seat of Permaisuri while replacing four incumbent state reps, much to the frustration of the local residents and as well as grassroots members.

Consequently, Mohd Yusop Majid, who won Setiu with 6,696 majority votes in 2004, has taken the risk of being expelled by Umno by running in Permaisuri as an independent candidate.

Ahmad Said's bad line-up means Umno may face difficulty defending Setiu and the four state seats under it, giving PAS an opportunity to break the defence of this once safe seat of BN.

As for the other parliamentary and state seats where controversial candidates have been fielded, independents have joined in the race as expected, including Dungun parliamentary seat and Kemasik state assembly seats.

Terengganu BN vows to defend the seven parliamentary and 24 state seats it won in 2008 while trying to recapture the four state seats it lost, namely Manir, Bukit Payung, Bukit Tunggal and Ladang, in order to consolidate its state administration.

On the other hand, the candidates fielded by PAS this time are highly educated, including PhD holders and professionals.

PAS is eyeing three state seats which BN won with under-500 majority votes five years ago, namely Paka, Tepuh and Teluk Pasu.

In addition, BN won with majorities fewer than 1,000 votes in five state assembly seats, namely Jabi, Alur Limbat, Pengkalan Berangan, Rantau Abang and Cukai. BN's prospects in these constituencies are not too promising.

Even with the anti-establishment yet to unfold in the state of Terengganu, BN already lost four state seats in 2008 while seeing drastically reduced majority votes in others. With the anti-BN gust collecting momentum this time, BN is in for a hard struggle to retain state administration.

-Sin Chew Daily