Barring any massive fraud and major infiltration of phantom voters brought in from Sabah/Sarawak, Perak is expected to switch back to Pakatan Rakyat in the coming polls.
In 2008, PR had obtained 31 state seats and 11 parliamentary seats while 28 state seats went to BN together with 13 parliamentary constituencies.
Not long after Najib Razak took over Malaysia’s premiership from Abdullah Badawi in 2009, three state assembly members from PR decided to go 'independent' and became BN-friendly. Perak thus went back to BN after a period of acrimonious quarrel both inside and outside the state assembly.
Obviously, this method of usurping control of Perak state administration by BN did not please Perak voters in general and PR voters in particular. They had to wait and endured BN’s rule for four long years for the next GE to be called again. This long wait is about to end this Sunday.
Based on the various rallies in the last week or so, it is apparent that the majority of voters in Perak could not wait much longer to make their wishes known. They have a big axe to grind over what transpired in 2009, the hostile takeover of their state by BN. This time around their calls of "Ubah!" and ‘Ini kalilah!" were echoed loud and clear throughout this silver state and the voters really mean business.
Unlike Johor, where the voters were more vocal and participative, the Perak crowd are mostly calm and controlled. But one can easily detect the long held anger kept deep inside them over the last four years. After this Sunday, we shall see a new Perak. These are the coded words of the many voters met in the course of the campaigning period.
Perak has seen the focus of many high profile candidates especially for the parliamentary seats. For instance, the introduction of ex-CID chief, Fauzi Shaari for P56 (Larut) and ex-Navy chief Imran Hamid for P74 (Lumut) bodes well and have increased PR chances in winning two new seats previously won by BN with very small margins. It appears that ex-Transport Minister, Kong Cho Ha and ex-Deputy Primary Industries Minister, Hamzah Zainuddin, would be defeated in these two marginal seats.
Apart from retaining its 11 parliamentary seats, it has been reported that PR would add four more seats to take its tally to 15 seats. This is bad news to BN. Apart from Larut and Lumut, two additional seats would be coming from Kuala Kangsar (P67) and Kampar (P70).
It seems like more bad news are in store for BN. It has also been predicted that seven other parliamentary seats would see a close fight between BN and PR. These seats are Padang Rengas, Tambun, Parit, Tapah, Pasir Salak, Bagan Datoh and Tanjong Malim. Vote swing and new voters’ factor tend to play major roles in these seven seats.
Two cabinet ministers, Nazri Aziz and Zahid Hamidi, are defending their seats, Padang Rengas and Bagan Datoh respectively but they are both on shaky ground. Their poor image and performance at national politics have been turned into major issues in PR’s campaign.
Both seats were won in 2008 on small margins of 1,749 and 2,692 votes each. Given the number of new voters, which supersede their previous margins in both constituencies, it is expected that most of the new voters would give their votes to PR instead.
The two sure seats to be retained by BN would only be Gerik and Lenggong. The table below shows the current predictions for all 24 parliamentary seats in Perak.
In 2008, PR had obtained 31 state seats and 11 parliamentary seats while 28 state seats went to BN together with 13 parliamentary constituencies.
Not long after Najib Razak took over Malaysia’s premiership from Abdullah Badawi in 2009, three state assembly members from PR decided to go 'independent' and became BN-friendly. Perak thus went back to BN after a period of acrimonious quarrel both inside and outside the state assembly.
Obviously, this method of usurping control of Perak state administration by BN did not please Perak voters in general and PR voters in particular. They had to wait and endured BN’s rule for four long years for the next GE to be called again. This long wait is about to end this Sunday.
Based on the various rallies in the last week or so, it is apparent that the majority of voters in Perak could not wait much longer to make their wishes known. They have a big axe to grind over what transpired in 2009, the hostile takeover of their state by BN. This time around their calls of "Ubah!" and ‘Ini kalilah!" were echoed loud and clear throughout this silver state and the voters really mean business.
Unlike Johor, where the voters were more vocal and participative, the Perak crowd are mostly calm and controlled. But one can easily detect the long held anger kept deep inside them over the last four years. After this Sunday, we shall see a new Perak. These are the coded words of the many voters met in the course of the campaigning period.
Perak has seen the focus of many high profile candidates especially for the parliamentary seats. For instance, the introduction of ex-CID chief, Fauzi Shaari for P56 (Larut) and ex-Navy chief Imran Hamid for P74 (Lumut) bodes well and have increased PR chances in winning two new seats previously won by BN with very small margins. It appears that ex-Transport Minister, Kong Cho Ha and ex-Deputy Primary Industries Minister, Hamzah Zainuddin, would be defeated in these two marginal seats.
Apart from retaining its 11 parliamentary seats, it has been reported that PR would add four more seats to take its tally to 15 seats. This is bad news to BN. Apart from Larut and Lumut, two additional seats would be coming from Kuala Kangsar (P67) and Kampar (P70).
It seems like more bad news are in store for BN. It has also been predicted that seven other parliamentary seats would see a close fight between BN and PR. These seats are Padang Rengas, Tambun, Parit, Tapah, Pasir Salak, Bagan Datoh and Tanjong Malim. Vote swing and new voters’ factor tend to play major roles in these seven seats.
Two cabinet ministers, Nazri Aziz and Zahid Hamidi, are defending their seats, Padang Rengas and Bagan Datoh respectively but they are both on shaky ground. Their poor image and performance at national politics have been turned into major issues in PR’s campaign.
Both seats were won in 2008 on small margins of 1,749 and 2,692 votes each. Given the number of new voters, which supersede their previous margins in both constituencies, it is expected that most of the new voters would give their votes to PR instead.
The two sure seats to be retained by BN would only be Gerik and Lenggong. The table below shows the current predictions for all 24 parliamentary seats in Perak.
PARLIAMENTARY SEATS
PR Expected to Win
|
Grey Seats
|
BN Expected to win
|
| P56 Larut* P57 Parit Buntar P58 Bagan Serai P59 Bukit Gantang P60 Taiping P62 Sungai Siput P64 Ipoh Timor P65 Ipoh Barat P66 Batu Gajah P67 Kuala Kangsar* P68 Beruas P70 Kampar* P71 Gopeng P74 Lumut* P76 Telok Intan | P61 Padang Rengas P63 Tambun P69 Parit P72 Tapah P73 Pasir Salak P75 Bagan Datoh P77 Tanjong Malim |
P54 Gerik
P55 Lenggong |
* Denotes seats previously held by BN but expected to swing to PR. Grey seats are tightly contested where the winning margin is expected to be very small, less than 1,000 votes either way.
In the case of state seats, PR is also determined to wrest the state back from BN. The nomination of Nizar Jamaluddin, the ex-MB, in Changkat Jering state seat only, is testimonial to this intention. Nizar is a popular figure in Perak and he commands a sizeable followings from across the three PR component parties.
The prediction that PR would increase its share from the current 28 seats to 40 seats, a gain of 12 seats, is in tandem with many reports from the ground. These seats were mostly won by BN previously by small margins ranging from 14 votes to anything less than 600 votes.
It has been reported that there would be an across the board swing due to the factors mentioned earlier including the choice of Nizar as the next PR’s MB. Similar to the predictions made for the parliamentary seats, the analyses undertaken are fairly consistent with predictions made in a few other reports.
Obviously, these predictions are based on the politics of fair play, clean and transparent execution. Any issues related to phantom voters are purely speculative.
STATE SEATS
PR Expected to Win
|
Grey Seats
|
BN Expected to win
|
N5 Selama* N6 Kubu Gajah* N8 Titi Serong N9 Kuala Kurau N10 Alor Pongsu* N11 Gunong Semanggol N12 Selinsing N13 Kuala Sepetang N14 Changkat Jering N15 Trong* N16 Kamunting* N17 Pokok Assam N18 Aulong N20 Lubok Merbau N22 Jalong N25 Canning N26 Tebing Tinggi N27 Pasir Pinji N28 Bercham N29 Kepayang N30 Buntong N31 Jelapang N32 Menglembu N33 Tronoh N35 Manong* N36 Pengkalan Baru* N37 Pantai Remis N41 Malim Nawar N41 Keranji N43 Sungai Rapat* N44 Simpang Pulai N45 Teja N50 Sitiawan N51 Pasir Panjang N53 Rungkup* N54 Hutan Melintang* N55 Pasir Bedamar N56 Changkat Jong N57 Sungkai N59 Behrang | N4 Kota Tampan N7 Batu Kurau N19 Chenderoh N21 Lintang N23 Manjoi N34 Bukit Chandan N48 Sungai Manik | N1 Pengkalan Hulu N2 Temengor N3 Kenering N24 Hulu Kinta N38 Belanja N39 Bota N42 Tualang Sekah N46 Chenderiang N47 Ayer Kuning N49 Kampong Gajah N52 Pangkor N58 Slim |
* Denotes seats previously won by BN.
* The writer, Dr Rosli Khan obtained his PhD in Transport Economics from Cranfield University, UK. He has been a practising consultant/company director in the last 25 years.
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