In search of a successor (UPDATED with Chinese translation)

Therefore, for all intents and purposes, it was Dr Mahathir who appointed Najib as the Deputy Prime Minister and not Pak Lah who did so. Pak Lah did not ‘confirm’ Dr Mahathir’s announcement until the following day. Pak Lah really had no choice in the matter after Dr Mahathir had publicly ‘thanked’ him for ‘agreeing’ to appoint Najib as the Deputy Prime Minister.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

It appears like we will not be seeing a contest for ‘number one’ and ‘number two’ this coming Umno general assembly. Of course, this is not the first time this has happened. Since the historic ‘Team A’ versus ‘Team B’ tussle of 26 years ago -- when the Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah-Musa Hitam team took on the Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad-Ghafar Baba team -- Umno has not tolerated any contest for the top two posts.

This is mainly because of two reasons. Firstly, the 1987 contest split Umno into two and resulted in Umno getting deregistered (followed by the fall of Kelantan in the 1990 general election). Secondly, the President and Deputy President of Umno will become Malaysia’s Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister respectively. Hence Umno would not just be choosing its top two party leaders but the top two leaders of the country as well.

No doubt this ‘no contest’ ruling can be considered as technically illegal because all party posts should be open for contest. But then Umno’s ‘system’ allows for the party’s supreme council to make rulings that are final and that cannot be challenged in court or overridden by the Registrar of Societies. Therefore democracy can be suspended for the sake of ‘stability’.

This may appear strange and even undemocratic to the uninitiated. However, Malaysia is full of contradictions and these contradictions have been accepted as necessary for the sake of ‘peace and stability’. I mean, while the Federal Constitution says that there is freedom of assembly, the police can still arrest you for organising and attending an ‘illegal assembly’. And while the Constitution says you cannot be detained without being informed of your crime and that you must be brought before a magistrate or released within 24 hours, you can still be detained without trial and without legal representation for an indefinite period of time.

Many say that Malaysia does not allow freedom of speech or freedom of assembly and so on. I would disagree with that, though. Malaysia does allow freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. It is freedom AFTER speech and freedom AFTER assembly that you do not have. Hence you do have freedom to do what you want to do. It is whether you will still enjoy this freedom after you do it that is the issue.

Anyway, many think that the ‘no contest for number one and number two’ is aimed at saving Najib Tun Razak. They think that to allow a contest would mean that Najib might be challenged and would possibly be ousted. I have a deep suspicion that this is not about saving Najib but about saving Muhyiddin Yassin.

If there is a contest for number one and number two, two things may happen. One would be that Muhyiddin takes on Najib. Muhyiddin might win or he might lose. However, taking Malay sentiments into consideration where challenging the boss is seen as biadap (insolent), the chance of Muhyiddin losing is stronger than the chance of him winning.

The second scenario would be that no one might challenge Najib but someone might challenge Muhyiddin instead. And if Muhyiddin loses, then Najib would be very secure and unshakable -- as the only alternative for successor, Muhyiddin, would now be out in the cold.

That is a risk they would not like to take. And you cannot say that the number one post is open to challenge while the number two is not. Either both posts are open to challenge or both are not. So better they do not open any of the posts to a challenge, just in case.

Their main worry is not so much about Muhyiddin taking on Najib (in fact, many are hoping he would). If Muhyiddin does take on Najib that would mean the number two post would now be ‘vacant’ (since Muhyiddin is going for number one) and it would be open season for the number two post.

Let’s say Muhyiddin takes on Najib and wins. Najib would now be out and Muhyiddin would become the new Prime Minister. That would mean Malaysia no longer has a Deputy Prime Minister. But who is going to become the new Deputy Prime Minister, one of the three Vice Presidents? Bloody hell, you know who they are, right?

That is the crux of the matter. Who is going to take over as Deputy Prime Minister if Muhyiddin takes over as Prime Minister? That is a thought that is sending shivers down the spine of the behind-the-scenes ‘kingmakers’. Hence it is a risk they would not like to take.

They faced this same dilemma when Dr Mahathir handed the reins to Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (Pak Lah) on 1st November 2003. For 15 months from mid-2002 Dr Mahathir and Pak Lah hammered out a deal on what will happen once Pak Lah takes over. And one of the terms of this deal was that Najib would be appointed the Deputy Prime Minister.

However, once Pak Lah took over, he dragged his feet and refused to confirm Najib as his Deputy. It was not until Dr Mahathir put a gun to Pak Lah’s head that Najib was appointed the Deputy Prime Minister on 7th January 2004 -- more than two months after Pak Lah took over as Prime Minister. 

Pak Lah’s choice for Deputy was actually Muhyiddin and not Najib. Najib was Dr Mahathir’s choice. But Dr Mahathir shoved Najib down Pak Lah’s throat and he (Pak Lah) was powerless to say no mainly because the ‘Old Man’ publicly announced Najib’s appointment even though Pak Lah had not said anything.

Therefore, for all intents and purposes, it was Dr Mahathir who appointed Najib as the Deputy Prime Minister and not Pak Lah who did so. Pak Lah did not ‘confirm’ Dr Mahathir’s announcement until the following day. Pak Lah really had no choice in the matter after Dr Mahathir had publicly ‘thanked’ him for ‘agreeing’ to appoint Najib as the Deputy Prime Minister.

That was basically the beginning of the end for Pak Lah. Dr Mahathir realised that the 15 months of ‘sorting out the issues’ from mid-2002 to 1st November 2003 between him and Pak Lah was a deal gone sour. After that Pak Lah cancelled the Crooked Bridge, the Double-Tracking Project, and so on. That further infuriated Dr Mahathir.

The straw that broke the camel’s back was on midnight of 2nd September 2004, a few hours after Anwar Ibrahim was released from jail on the charge of sodomy. Unknown to most, Pak Lah’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddiin, sneaked into Anwar’s house through the kitchen to meet Anwar. This meeting was arranged by the then PKR Youth Leader, Ezam Mohd Nor.

When I found out about this clandestine meeting I immediately wrote about it in Malaysia Today and the next morning there was a lot of brouhaha when Umno demanded an explanation. Pak Lah then explained that Khairy went to meet Anwar to hand him his international passport.

But Khairy was not the Minister of Home Affairs or the head of the Immigration Department. So why should he go to meet Anwar to hand him his passport? Nevertheless, Umno gave Pak Lah the benefit of the doubt, never mind how incredible the explanation may have sounded -- until the following day when The Star published a photograph of Anwar going to the Immigration office to collect his passport.

Pak Lah had lied. Khairy’s midnight visit to Anwar’s house was not to hand him his passport, as what Pak Lah had said. The Star had revealed this lie. Hence what was the purpose of Khairy’s visit?

Later it was revealed that Pak Lah was in discussion with Anwar, through Khairy, for his (Anwar’s) return to Umno. Pak Lah knew that Dr Mahathir was after his balls and he thought that an alliance with Anwar (if Anwar returns to Umno, of course) would be the sensible strategy to adopt.

Pak Lah admitted that there actually was such a negotiation. However, since Umno was bitterly opposed to this move, he had no choice but to abort the plan -- and Anwar went on to become the de facto head of PKR, and the Opposition Leader in Parliament in September 2008, four years after he was released from jail.

And is this why Najib allegedly met up with Anwar in Indonesia, a meeting that was allegedly arranged by Pak Lah (and a story that has been denied)? Does Najib know that his time is up and he, too, is seeking an alliance with Anwar to fend off any possible onslaught from Dr Mahathir?

Well, that issue will have to be addressed in part three of this series -- so stay tuned.

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寻找接班人

所以说，一开始就是老马把纳吉钦点为副首相的，而不是伯拉。伯拉并没有第一时间站出来确定老马的发言，是直到第二天他才那么做的。伯拉他根本就没得选，因为老马已公开地‘感谢’他‘委任’纳吉为副首相了。

看起来此届巫统党选大会中我们将看不到第一把交椅和第二把交椅之战。这当然并不是第一次发生的，自从26年前巫统那场AB队之战后（东姑拉扎利和慕沙希旦对垒敦马和嘉化巴巴），巫统就再也不容许任何领导位竞争了。

这背后是由两个原因的。第一，1987年的那一场竞争把巫统给分裂了而搞得被吊销执照（再来的就是他们在1990年失去了吉兰丹政权）。第二，巫统主席和署理主席将会直接成为大马正副首相，所以说巫统不只是选他们党内的领导而已，他们也在选着国家领导。

毫无疑问的，这个‘不得参选’的规则其实是犯法的，因为基本上所有党职都应该公开地被竞争。但巫统的‘系统’是允许党内最高理事会立定规则而其规则是连法庭或注册局也不能推翻的。所以说，在‘安稳’当前民主也是必须让步的。

这可能看起来很奇怪，甚至是不民主。无论如何，马来西亚是充满矛盾的，而这些矛盾都会被视为能维持国家的‘安定繁荣’而被接受。我的意思是，虽然说宪法赐予你集会的权利，但警方还是可以因你策划和参加‘非法集会’而逮捕你。虽然宪法也说一个人不能再没有被告知他犯了什么错的情况下被逮捕，和这个人被逮捕了以后一定要在24小时内会面法官或被释放，但你还是可以再没有被审讯的情况下遭无限期地扣押。

很多人都说在马来西亚你没得自由地发言和集会，我对这一点感到不赞同。在马来西亚你是可以自由地发言和集会的；你没有的是发言以后和集会以后的自由权。所以说你可以有自由去做任何东西，但当你做完那些东西以后你还有没有那个自由权那就不得而知了。

话说回来，很多人都认为这个‘不得参战’规则主要就是要用来救纳吉的。他们想如果没了这条规的话那纳吉有可能会被挑战出局。对我来讲，我认为这规则是为了要救慕尤丁而不是要救纳吉的。

如果说这规则被撤走的话，那有两个情况会发生。第一，慕尤丁会挑战纳吉，他有可能会赢或输。但是你要记住，马来人一般都视挑战你老大是件很无礼的事情，所以他输的机会会大过赢。

第二个情况是没有人挑战纳吉，但可能会有人挑战幕尤丁。如果他输了的话，那纳吉可说是固若金汤，因为纳吉唯一的接班人慕尤丁已经出局了。

这是个他们不愿冒的大险，但与此同时你不能说第一把交椅不能被竞争但第二把交椅则能。这两者都必须同时被公开竞争的，所以对他们来讲更好的选择是两者都不公开。

他们最大的忧虑不是慕尤丁去挑战纳吉（事实上很多人都希望慕尤丁那样做）；如果慕尤丁真的那么做的话那就代表第二把交椅是放空的，所以很多人都能够去抢。

就然我们当慕尤丁去挑战且赢了，那现在纳吉会出局而他就会接手首相一职。这同时也代表大马的副首相一职悬空了，请问你要谁来顶上呢？那三个副主席的其中一人吗？你应该都知道他们是谁吧！

这就是问题的所在，慕尤丁上位的话那副首相会是谁呢？这个问题使那些幕后的‘造王者’都不寒而颤，所以说他们绝不敢冒此大险。

这些人在03年11月老马把职位交给阿都拉（伯拉）时也遇到了同样的问题。在这之前的15个月里他俩就不停地谈判，而其中的一个条件是当伯拉上位后纳吉必须是他的副首相。

问题是，伯拉上位了以后他足足托了两个月还不愿意宣布纳吉是他的副手，直到老马把枪抵在了他的脑袋后纳吉才在04年1月7日宣布就职。

伯拉的心水人物其实是慕尤丁而不是纳吉，纳吉他是老马的人选。老马硬把纳吉往伯拉喉咙塞进去，而伯拉他根本就什么也不能做；老马他一早就对外宣布纳吉是副首相了，虽然说伯拉他一直都没有说话。

所以说，一开始就是老马把纳吉钦点为副首相的，而不是伯拉。伯拉并没有第一时间站出来确定老马的发言，是直到第二天他才那么做的。伯拉他根本就没得选，因为老马已公开地‘感谢’他‘委任’纳吉为副首相了。

这基本上就是伯拉收山的开端；敦马这时就开始了解那15个月的谈判已经变质了。伯拉尔后取消了多个计划，如弯桥，双轨列车等等，这更把老马给惹毛了。

压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草终于在04年9月2日发生了。就在安华被释放的数个小时后，伯拉的女婿，凯利，在通过当时公正党青年团长伊占Ezam Mohd Nor的安排下漏夜前往安华住所，偷偷摸摸地绕过厨房和安华会面。

当我得知这一次的秘密会面后我第一时间把它写在MT上，第二天早上真的是平地一声雷，所有的巫统人都要伯拉做出解释。伯拉当时给出的解释是凯利只是把国际护照拿给安华而已。

凯利当时根本就不是内政部长或移民局的人，为什么会需要他把护照拿给安华呢？虽然如此，巫统还是姑且接受了伯拉的解释，即使那个理由是这么的牵强；直到第二天，星报刊登了一张照片，照片中显示着安华他亲身前往移民办公室领取他自己的护照。

伯拉他的谎言被星报拆穿了，凯利根本就不是什么拿护照给安华。那凯利的目的又是什么呢？

谜底最终被揭开了，伯拉的目的是要通过凯利和安华开会来讨论安华回归巫统的事情。伯拉知道老马追他追得很紧，他以为如果他和回巢的安华联手的话那这是个很不错的策略。

伯拉他亲口承认他们之间的确是进行了谈判。无论如何，在巫统的强烈抗议下，伯拉被迫放弃这个计划-----安华过后成为了公正党的实权主席，然后再在他出狱的四年后成为了国会的反对党主席。

这就是为什么（根据报导）纳吉要（通过伯拉的牵线下）在印尼和安华会面的原因（他们都否认了这些报导）？纳吉他可知道当他去寻求安华的合作来对抗老马时，他的死期其实已近了？

好的，今天到此为止，以上的问题下期自有分解，敬请期待。