'Dark horse' Ku Li to run against Najib, Muhyiddin? But is patience the right strategy!

Former Umno seniors Musa Hitam, Tengku Razaleigh and Anwar Ibrahim all knew what was going on in UMNO under their former boss Mahathir Mohamad. They sensed that Mahathir was up to no good for the country and they tried to stop him.

While the opposition parties, at that time led by the likes of Lim Kit Siang and various PAS leaders, did their best, they were too weak and lacked the imagination as to how to defeat UMNO-BN at national elections. So it was left to the Umno trio. They bit the bullet and challenged Mahathir head on at the Umno internal elections.

Unfortunately, these 3 outstanding Malay leaders failed in their tasks but not because they did not have support, but because Mahathir held the upper hand as the prime minister of the day and reigning UMNO president. Mahathir was also Machiavellian enough to take whatever action was necessary to stay in power and the the trio were forced to learn their lesson the hard way.

Since then, Musa Hitam has headed the Malaysian Human Rights Commission and recently reiterated that Malaysia would not go bankrupt under the Pakatan Rakyat, Ku Li has distanced himself from mainstream UMNO and formed the Angkatan Amanah Merdeka, an NGO which seeks to return to the comforting policies of first prime minister Tunku Abdul Rahman. Anwar Ibrahim is now heading the Pakatan Rakyat coalition opposing the present UMNO-BN government.

Musa appears to have given up his ambition of wanting to lead the country. Anwar was recently defeated at the country's 13th general election but has refused to concede defeat, pointing to the mass of evidence of electoral fraud. He and Pakatan have instituted various measures to get re-elections going at some 30 seats where the cheating was most evident.

Patience may not be the right strategy for Ku Li

But what about Razaleigh or Ku Li, or he is also known. This Kelantan prince has tried almost everything in his quest to be prime minister including life on Opposition bench. But for now, his strategy seems to be patience. Ku has decided since rejoining Umno in 1996 to fight within the system but sad to say at 76, patience might not work in his favor.

Even so, when speculation swirled a few weeks ago that he had been approached by several MPs from Sarawak, disgruntled they had been left out of the Cabinet, to lead a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Najib Razak, there was an air of excitement.

Many Malaysians who had voted for Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat had hoped that Ku Li could break their deadlock. Despite winning at least 51% of the total votes cast, Pakatan could only scrounge together 89 seats versus Umno-BN's 133 in the federal Parliament due to the massive gerrymandering pushed through by Mahathir and his successors.

Not through Parliament: Chances at Umno also 'not too hot'

But Parliament has convened and will adjourn on July 18. There was and is no sight and sound of Ku Li mounting any vote against Najib at all. Insiders say Ku Li just could not summon the numbers needed to oust Najib. The Pakatan would have been willing to back him and Anwar even ready to let him take over the premiership, but in the end, Ku Li could not convince enough BN MPs to make the crucial break.

Ku Li's first-line of support would surprisingly have come from the Opposition, and it is very plausible that all the 89 Pakatan MPs would support him. That still left Ku Li short of the 112-seats target, which means he has to get at least 32 from his own BN side to vote against Najib.

Some analysts say that Ku Li can easily get 20 BN lawmakers from Sarawak and Sabah, so that leaves 12 more but who from the peninsula would want to risk everything for Ku Li?

So it looks like Ku Li will have to go the Umno route to achieve his ambition of becoming PM. He will have to stand against Najib and whoever else might later emerge to contest the Umno presidency because the Umno president is by convention also the prime minister.

But what are Ku Li's chances in the race for the Umno presidency?

The brutal answer is that it is 'not so hot' either. Ku Li has to make it alone. He has always been a loner in Umno, with a few close and loyal friendships but little grassroots support outside of his Gua Musang stronghold. In the 2008 Umno election, he garnered only one nomination to challenge Najib for the Umno presidency. Indeed, Ku Li has limited options.

Unity government if Ku Li won the Umno presidency?

Quite a number in Umno say even if nominated as a candidate for the UMNO presidency, there is no way Ku Li can challenge Najib in the coming UMNO general assembly. Firstly, the delegates who will get to come to Kuala Lumpur to vote will mostly be from the Najib camp as that is what he and his advisers have been planning all this while. Secondly, Najib's deputy Muhyiddin Yassin, is also eyeballing the post.

However, in the world of politics, nothing is ever certain and secret deals are always just below the surface. Ku Li's chances may be cool but he cannot be written off yet. There are many 'silent and powerful' voices in Umno who may just decide they have had enough and show their hand. With their support, Ku Li might with luck be able to overcome Mahathir's influence and be the proverbial dark horse to win the race.

If Ku Li does, it would be good for Umno and the country but perhaps less so for Anwar and the Pakatan. If Ku Li had won the premiership through a vote in Parliament, he would owe the Opposition. But winning the PM's chair through the Umno presidency, he would owe his allies in the party more.

Nonetheless, Anwar has a big heart. If he has been so desirous of being the PM, he could have been patient like Abdullah Badawi and Najib, both of whom were eventually handed the post by Mahathir.

It is likely Anwar and Pakatan will be willing to let Ku Li become the PM for a while so that a new government - the much touted unity government between a Ku Li-led Umno-BN and the Pakatan - can be formed.

This unity government can move Malaysia forward by dismantling all the old UMNO machinery and make independent institutions such as  the Election Commission, the police and the mainstream media.

Calm before the storm?

Not surprisingly Mahathir, Muhyiddin and Najib are said to be busy scheming to prevent such a ‘unity government” from being established. Their rationale is they are now back in the driver's seat so why should they share with Anwar and Pakatan?

Instead, Najib is back to his bad old ways and covertly getting in touch with a number of MPs in the Pakatan. Previously PAS was the fishing ground but many PAS leaders who were willing to hook up with UMNO have been sacked, including the likes of Hasan Ali.

The grapevine has it that Najib is now dangling big huge bunches of carrots to the DAP leaders, many of whom are young and vain. Swell-headed by their recent electoral success, some in the DAP are said to be itching to turn 'establishment' and take over the role MCA used to play in the BN.

The current state of affairs in Umno is now the classic calm before the storm. Mahathir has played according to script, urging UMNO members not to contest and let Najib stay in power for the sake of unity. Privately, fund managers say he has told them to watch out for a power contest at the Umno assembly.

Meanwhile, Muhyiddin is behaving himself while Home Minister Zahid Hamidi, who is speculated to be Muhyiddin's running mate, is just doing his designated job of stirring up trouble to mask the fact that Umno-BN is not doing anything to reform or improve the country.

In politics as in football, the game is never over until the final whistle. The possibility that scheming is still ongoing albeit secretly can never be ruled out. Ku Li might be tired, but he still has enough health to blow the whistle.

Malaysia Chronicle