Moro Peace That Never Was

Rebel killings of 44 commandos test Philippine peace deal

• killing of 44 commandos in southern Philippines
• government's biggest single-day combat loss 
• two senators withdraw their backing for Muslim autonomous region 
• abandoning peace efforts could usher "warlordism, lawlessness, .breakdown of governance.
• peace talks with 11,000-strong MILF ended major fighting in the last four years. 
• insurrection has left 150,000 dead and blocked progress 
• police commandos barged into Mamasapano to hunt Malaysian Zulkifli bin Hir, or Marwan
• and a top Filipino terror suspect, Abdul Basit Usman
• Marwan maybe killed but Usman escaped. 
• commandos came under fire from Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters
• 44 commandos were dead and 12 others were wounded
• about a dozen insurgents dead
• Moro leader Mohagher Iqbal accused commandos of violating cease-fire
• security officials suspicions that Moros may be harboring foreign terror suspects 
• head of police commandos, Getulio Napenas, removed from post. 
• huge body count sparked outrage and placed the government in a dilemma
• reason to doubt commitment of Moro to peace and development
• Despite casualties, officials said peace process actually worked.
• Malaysian-led peacekeeping contingent pacified combatants. 
• Moro rebels withdrew allowing policemen to retrieve the slain commandos
• In 2011 troops clashed with Moro Islamic Liberation Front forces that killed 19 soldiers
• one of the largest army losses in a single clash. 
• sparked calls for Aquino to break a truce 
• Aquino rejected calls and decided to pursue talks
• Malaysia-brokered talks led to signing of Muslim autonomy deal last year

My comments : Well folks, not all the news is coming out. There was a police operation by Philippine police commandos. 400 of them entered this town called Mamasapano. The Moros (and there were more than two Moro factions involved) say the police did not inform them of the operation and so they opened fire. They killed 44 police commandos.

First question is : why was there a police operation in a ceasefire area? I think the Philippine police were looking for those kidnapped hostages.

Hostage taking is not only a family business but a major economic sector among the Moros. The ceasefire plus the peace treaty has not been able to put an end to this hostage taking  business.

I dont think the Moro problem will go away. My view is the problem will get worse if the Moros get autonomy. 

My reasoning is very simplistic but unfortunately closer to the truth (in my view of course). The Moro society is still very basic. They are not ready to rule themselves or handle autonomy. They have no idea  how to put democracy into practise.

Here is "evidence" of sorts. Look at Malaysia - after 58 years there are increasing restrictions on freedom of speech, curtailing individual freedoms and etc. Our democracy is going backward. There is a growing cry for shariah and hudud. Folks, shariah and hudud have nothing to do with democracy. Under shariah, non Muslims and women cannot be leaders. Under shariah, non Muslims pay a tax (jizya) to the Muslims.

That is Malaysia today in 2015. The Moros are maybe 50 years behind Malaysia. I dont think they can handle autonomy, democracy, free speech or independent elections. These folks are more used to negotiating with guns and the bolo knife.

All this fighting and skirmishing between the various factions is about money. Nur Misuari  was left out of the peace treaty. He did not get any money. So he organised that Sulu intrusion in 2013.  Because he wants money. They are poor. They dont have jobs.

30 years ago under Marcos, what was the economic and social standing of the Moros? Was there any significant improvement under Corazon? Or Fidel Ramos? Or Estrada? Or Arroyo? What about now? How many times a week do they eat meat today compared to 30 years ago? Has their lot improved? Not really. They have nothing. Hence they have nothing to lose, nothing to defend. To die fighting (or attacking Sabah)  could be an option for them.

Despite all the agreements on paper, the peace treaty and autonomy agreements cannot guarantee how tax will actually be collected on the ground and by whom in the southern Philippines, channelled to Manila (??) and then resent down to Mindanao again.

They can make all the agreements on paper but putting it into real practise among a populace infested with religious locos (crazies), warlords, oligarchic land owning families, kidnapping syndicates and dirt poor illiterate people is just not going to happen.

Peace treaties and autonomy is going to be disaster for the southern Philippines. 

Err.. here is more evidence (of sorts again) : Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen.. Even Jokowi is either faltering or facing "resistance" after 100 days. These countries need more time to warm up to democracy, which should also come with autonomy in Mindanao.

In the Philippines, the Muslim Moros make up about 3 million 'problematic people' in a democracy of 100 million - 97 million of whom are Catholics.  Manila is 1000 km from the Moros. The Philippines is becoming a stronger democracy. A 100 million strong democracy will not give two hoots about a troublesome 3 million minority, located 1000 km away in some Allah forsaken backwoods islands.  And the 97 million Catholics are none too rich themselves. They too are struggling for their survival.

The other country that is closest to the Moros is Malaysia. Maybe if the Moros join Malaysia and become the 14th state in our Federation things may simmer down. The 1 million or so Moros who live in Sabah have absolutely no complaints about Malaysia. 

(Dont worry guys we can handle everyone. If this country can absorb 7 million Chinese, 3 million Indians, 1 million Banglas, 1 million Nepalis, 2 million Indons, 500,000 Rohingyas, 50,000 Iranians, 100,000 Pakistanis what is a mere 3 million Moros? Plus the Moros come with their own islands and fantastic beaches. Think about it.)

Nine month's pregnant Moro women take a two day boat ride from their islands in Mindanao to Kota Kinabalu to give birth at our hospitals. This is happening today. (Any Sabah readers - please give some numbers. I can tell you it is more than 100 births a day).

They really appreciate our free school system ('di sini ada sekolah untuk anak' was what one Moro told me). He said there are no schools where he came from. He worked as a dive instructor and could hold his breath underwater for four minutes. 

I can 'feel' some of you wincing. There is another less stressful option. 

The other option (which is more fun and more profitable) is we must invest big time in Mindanao. Invest in schools, businesses, industry, farms, aquaculture, tourism. A sort of 'Marshall Plan for the Moros'. 

Create a great future for them. (If we dont, they will visit Sabah again - without passports. Please mark my words).

97 million Catholics in a democracy have no time for 3 million trouble causers on some islands 1000 km away. They just dont have time.