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Friday, April 10, 2015

If Najib loses Rompin, he's a GONER

 If Najib loses Rompin, he's a GONER
If Umno loses in Rompin, it will mean the end of Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s six-year reign as prime minister of Malaysia. It is incumbent on the Election Commission to hold the Rompin parliamentary by-election first, and then Permatang Pauh.
Let me explain why.
There are three alternatives available. The first option would be to hold both by-elections simultaneously; the second, to hold Permatang Pauh first and the third to hold Rompin first.
The first option is right now the default option. The political argument to hold both by-elections simultaneously is that the opposition’s strength will be diverted and BN, with its superior man, machinery and media power will be available to secure a win in Rompin.
There are four reasons why the government needs to go all out to secure a “home” victory in Rompin: GST, emergence of strong political personalities supporting the opposition, PAS’s inherent strength in the area and possible infighting within Umno.
Najib may have miscalculated the degree of dissatisfaction the GST has, especially on the rural voters. The reason is due to economics – a 6% consumption tax increases prices disproportionately due to two factors. The first is straightforward economics 101, the second is due to decimalisation of prices. For example, something costing RM2 before will cost now RM2.15 or even RM2.20, meaning an effective tax of 7.5% to 10.0%. And given that the supply of goods in Rompin is controlled by a poor distribution network, prices may have risen by a much higher rate than anticipated. All of this has created the seeds of discontentment that will erupt on polling day.
A second factor is that the strength of PAS should not be underestimated. Going into the 13th general election, PAS was hamstrung by allegations that it buckled under the pressure of DAP when defending Malay or Islamic issues. However, under Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, PAS has shown a much braver front when promoting Islamic issues which has been positively accepted by the rural Malay voters.
In the 2013 general election, PAS fielded a relatively weak candidate but still managed to garner almost 15,000 votes. This time round, PAS has an abundant talent pool to field and will go into this election on the back of having the hudud enactment debated in Parliament. Whether the hudud enactment passes or fails, PAS has already re-energised the rural hardcore PAS base. Expect PAS to field a young professional male this time round as opposed to female the last time.
A third factor is that the opposition can divide itself nicely to face a battle on two fronts. The theory behind simultaneous by-elections is that it favours BN because of BN’s strength in the media, money and machinery.
However, the opposition has already prepared for this scenario. Datuk Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and DAP, led by Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng, will handle Permatang Pauh and Rompin will be spearheaded by PAS, aided by Mohamed Azmin Ali and – hear this one out – Tun Dr Mahathir himself.
This will be a new political dynamic that Barisan Nasional has never faced before. Right now, Azmin is a very strong political figure and has a legitimate claim to power as the menteri besar of Selangor.
But even this will be overshadowed by the emergence of Dr Mahathir. In the current state when the people are completely disillusioned with the present government, those thirty five and above will remember fondly the days when Dr Mahathir ruled the roost. Given that Dr Mahathir has never really been in Rompin for the last 20 years, an impromptu visit by him will trigger a groundswell support that could cause a massive upset.
The fourth factor is that the choice of candidate. Right now Sir Wenger’s favoured candidate is Datuk Mohd Johari Hussin, the assemblyman for Tioman and Youth chief for Umno Rompin. But will the leadership accede to my choice?
And will Umno Rompin’s Wanita machinery launch a silent rebellion?
Readers should note that Wanita Umno as a whole has been silent on declaring their support to Najib ever since the 1MDB issue broke out. They are perhaps angered at what they see as selective prosecution when their leader Datin Seri Sharizat Jalil was excoriated by even people in Umno itself – the division leader of Cheras Umno being a prime example – but at the same time everybody rushed to defend the prime minister when the 1MDB issue blew up, the division leader of Cheras Umno being a prime example of that as well.
This hypocrisy will not go down well with supporters of Kak Jat, given that there was no evidence tying Kak Jat to any impropriety in the “Cowgate” scandal whereas there is a tonne of evidence of the wrongdoings in 1MDB.
Thus with these factors, the PM’s department should give full and undivided focus to winning Rompin and ignoring Permatang Pauh. The risk that hardcore Umno supporters in Rompin may decide to stay away if polling is done on a working day and thus a low turnout will be disastrous for Umno. Already, polls in Umno-friendly blogs have indicated that such is the level of dissatisfaction with the current administration that previously Umno voters will prefer to stay out an election rather than cast their vote.
To sum it up, lets use a footballing analogy and more specifically, a Champions League semifinal played over two legs. When the team is weak, you want to secure a home win first and then use the momentum to go to the away leg. Rompin is a "must win" for Najib. A failure to secure a home win in Rompin first may mean the threat of a much bigger loss than that of a single parliamentary seat. – TMI

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