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Thursday, April 9, 2015

Mahathir vs Najib: Alternate Endings

Mahathir's victory is not the only possible outcome in our current political drama.
COMMENT
mahathir_najib_new2_600As has been expressed time and time again by political pundits, the general sentiment right now is that Mahathir will repeat history and depose Prime Minister Najib Razak in much the same way he did Abdullah Badawi. The doctor’s fearsome reputation and Najib’s tendency to be fairly passive in the face of adversity indeed seems to suggest that Mahathir will be successful, as he usually is, but we must keep in mind that this is politics and anything is possible.
Thus, in all prudence, we must examine the potential outcomes of this conflict. Mahathir winning is not a fact until it happens. Seismic shifts in Umno’s power structure could prevent the machinations of the good doctor, especially if the four Umno vice-presidents decide to throw in their lot with Najib.
The first scenario, of course, begins with Mahathir’s victory. Mahathir brings to bear the full weight of all the controversies Najib has been a part of and convinces Umno’s rank and file that they must remove their current president for the sake of the party. In this scenario alone, there are several variations of how the drama may play out. Right now, the top two names vying for the Prime Minister’s post are Muhyiddin Yassin and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, or Ku Li for short, and they have made their cases for two very different and distinct styles of governance.
Under Muhyiddin, we can expect a return to Mahathirist policies, but with much less subtlety. Muhyiddin has a reputation as something of a strongman and an ultra, having famously declared that he was Malay first and Malaysian second, despite the PM’s push towards racial harmony via a shared national identity. Muhyiddin is no Mahathir, however, and while the policies may be similar, the fear is that he will come down much harder on dissent than Mahathir ever would.
Ku Li has the most economic and financial savvy of all candidates to the throne. The Kelantan prince is expected to rein in government expenditure and focus on helping the Malaysian economy recover. Ku Li, while wilful, is also expected to be a throwback to the days of our founding father Tunku Abdul Rahman, who bore the burden of the people as the duty of royalty. Indeed, Ku Li has long vied for a chance at the position of Prime Minister, and he is making quite a push, even aligning himself with his old adversary, agreeing with the criticisms of the good doctor.
Now, if no true candidate for leader steps forward, the likely outcome will be the establishment of a Presidential Council or a similar body to regulate the decision making powers of the Prime Minister. Presumably, this council will be guided by Mahathir, and what we’ll have will be tantamount to a rule by proxy. In this way, Mahathir gets to control Putrajaya without having to be directly responsible for the decisions of the government.
But what happens if Mahathir loses? In this scenario, Najib manages to turn the tables on Mahathir and exposes the dirty secrets of his administration, discrediting him and forcing him to focus instead on damage control. However, it will be a pyrrhic victory for Najib as Mahathir will likely implement scorched earth tactics and irrevocably ruin Najib’s reputation. Given the circumstances, Najib will remain in office for a short time before retiring gracefully on his own terms.
Alternatively, Mahathir fails to bring Najib down with him and Najib remains in power indefinitely. This variation on the situation is less likely than the previous one, but also retains the option of Najib bringing Mahathir to heel and using him to bolster the credibility and strength of his administration.
In the final scenario, both Najib and Mahathir lose after escalating attacks on each other. With the two big dogs out of the game, Umno will plunge into temporary chaos as the party reorganizes itself around the void left by Najib. The party will then consolidate under the reins of an authoritative strongman, meaning that of all candidates, Muhyiddin is most likely to ascend to power in this scenario. Ku Li has a case to make if he can convince enough of the senior leadership to recognize his claim, but it is expected that the more authoritative candidate will make the biggest impact should the scenario play out in such a way.
Some optimists hope that the removal of Najib will lead to snap elections, but it is unlikely as BN is not inclined towards risking it’s power and control of the government on the off chance that the opposition could regroup and take advantage of the situation to storm Putrajaya. In all likelihood, a candidate will step forward to take control of the government and will lead till the next election, just as Najib did after Abdullah Badawi was deposed.
Mahathir himself is unlikely to risk the chance of Pakatan coming into power. It must be noted that Mahathir’s true concern behind his attacks on Najib, as he himself has said, lies in his fear of Pakatan taking Putrajaya in the next election. If that happens, whatever secrets the Mahathir administration may have held will become public knowledge and his legacy may forever be tarnished.
Politics is an unpredictable animal. Today’s ally is tomorrow’s enemy and vice-versa. What Mahathir attempts to do will lead to another political tsunami, and alliances will rapidly shift as politicians sense the coming waves, making the situation ever more unpredictable with each passing day. Even as some watch with cautious hope for Najib’s removal, we must remember that the best laid plans of mice and men sometimes go awry.

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