`


THERE IS NO GOD EXCEPT ALLAH
read:
MALAYSIA Tanah Tumpah Darahku

LOVE MALAYSIA!!!


 


Tuesday, May 5, 2015

MY PREDICTION FOR ROMPIN AND PERMATANG PAUH

mt2014-no-holds-barred
Alright, at the risk of being ridiculed later, I would say Umno will win Rompin with a majority of 15,000 votes and PKR would win Permatang Pauh with a majority of 5,000 (plus-minus 20%).
NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
This was what The Straits Times (Singapore) wrote today:
Permatang Pauh is a semi-urban seat where voters are exposed to what is going on in the rest of the country. Penang BN chief Teng Chang Yeow said the impact of issues like hudud law, GST implementation, the Allah and Bible controversy and the debt-ridden state fund 1MDB will be put to the test.
CEO of CENSE think tank Fui Soong told The Star: “It will be a test tube case where every issue will be played out, everything will be tested.”
The by-election will also be a gauge of whether the Anwar family name still carries that magic effect.
Despite the nationwide surge of support for PR in the general election in 2013, Anwar’s majority of win in Permatang Pauh was down to 11,700 from around 15,600 in 2008. The Malay vote had swung against him and he secured only about 48 per cent of the Malay vote.
However, he won 95 per cent of the Chinese vote and 70 per cent of the Indian voters. This is why Umno thinks that with the right candidate and a well-run campaign, they just might win the seat that has eluded them for more than 30 years.
The Rompin by-election results will be known in a few hours. And with more than 97% of the voters in that constituency being Malays/Orang Asli, issues like the Bahasa Malaysia Bible, the Allah word, Chinese schools, mother-tongue education, and so on, will not be important to the voters there. Also the issue of illegal immigrants in Sabah, 1MBD, Najib’s daughter’s wedding, etc., would be absolutely of no interest to the voters there.
Hence if you talk about these things in your election campaign it would not bring you any votes.
One very strong factor would be the candidate. The late MP for Rompin, Jamaluddin Jarjis, a.k.a. JJ, was a strong personality and he took care of his voters well. In fact, JJ is famous, or infamous, for knowing how to take care of people who are important to him.
Hence the personality would be very important to the voters in Rompin and although PAS may label the Umno candidate as old and recycled, he was once the Deputy Menteri Besar of Pahang and hence has a high profile. The PAS candidate may be young, fresh and new, but can he take care of the Rompin voters’ financial needs the way JJ did?
It all boils down to what can you do for me in the end.
Permatang Pauh, however, which is a mixed semi-urban-constituency, is another kettle of fish. One factor that is very strong would be the Anwar Ibrahim factor. Does Anwar still have the pull that he used to have? In 2013 Anwar’s majority reduced from four and a half years before that in 2008. This gives an impression that his popularity has taken a dive.
But now that Anwar is in jail would the sympathy factor bring that popularity back up again, to what it was in 2008? Or will it reduce even further compared to 2013 because the voters no longer see any benefit in voting for an Anwar-nominee, which is basically what his wife is.
Anwar is already the de facto PKR leader. Do the Permatang Pauh voters also want him as the de factoMP for their constituency? What benefit have they got so far with his presence, or absence, in Permatang Pauh the last few years? Pakatan Rakyat is asking the voters to vote for change. Would they do so by voting for Umno after so many years of opposition?
Then there are national issues, which are not so crucial in Rompin, but which will be election issues in Permatang Pauh. Unlike Rompin, Permatang Pauh is basically a popularity contest between Anwar and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. And with Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad joining the fray and whacking Najib good and proper, would the voters shun Umno in favour of Anwar?
That, we will have to find out two days from now.
“Okay, so what is your fooking prediction?” some of you are going to say. “Put your money where your mouth is!”
Alright, at the risk of being ridiculed later, I would say Umno will win Rompin with a majority of 15,000 votes and PKR would win Permatang Pauh with a majority of 5,000 (plus-minus 20%).

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.