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10 APRIL 2024

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Breaking News : Coup In Saudi Arabia?

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This is from The Huffington Post here 

  • Possible Coup in Saudi Arabia Signals End of US Dominance in Mideast
  • another crisis hit kingdom : hospitalization of King Salman
  • some form of dementia, assumed throne in January
  • 79-yr-old monarch's hospital stay surprised many in West
  • What future for Saudi now controversial king sidelined
  • Will royal family allow Crown Prince Nayef to lead? 
  • Or will kingdom's royal family see division within ranks?
  • major political storm
  • significant  instability in kingdom 
  • turn of events on heels of shocking news
  • memos among senior royals encourage coup against King
  • king & 30-yr-old son Mohammed pursued dangerous policies 
  • leading kingdom to political, economic, military ruin
  • Disclosure of memos raises serious concerns
  • royal infighting end of Kingdom 
  • Far-reaching economically, politically, religiously, geopolitically
  • War in Yemen: kingdom entangled no end in sight
  • King Salman & son miscalculated
  • internal dissension within kingdom grows
  • al-Jazeera show Saudi pummeling Yemen
  • generates criticism of Saudis, sympathy for Houthi
  • driving force behind war king's son - defense minister
  • wants to show world despite youth, can make tough calls
  • actions in Yemen reckless approach 
  • lack of experience, absence of exit strategy
  • mounting costs for kingdom in blood, treasure,  international criticism
  • Economic chaos: drop in oil price 50%, kingdom's economy tailspin
  • kingdom's deficit 20% > $100 billion
  • depletes FX reserves at record $12b per month
  • Tension with Iran
  • stampede at Hajj deaths of 239 Iranian pilgrims 
  • fueled tensions between Iran & kingdom
  • both fighting through proxies in Syria / Yemen
  • Russia's intervention escalated tensions to higher level
  • Saudi shipped 500 TOW missiles to Free Syrian Army (FSA)
  • will not change outcome
  • Where from here? 
  • Russia in Syria broader threat : Saudi more than ever vulnerable
  • dependence on US for survival last 70 years near end
  • US no longer only guarantor of Middle East stability
  • scenario : Saud relinquish power to entity that does not share US agenda
  • next US president face serious geopolitical headache: unstable Saudi Arabia
  • country bountiful in advanced American weapons and very angry Wahabis
My comments : There is such a thing as stupidity.  The Saudis have been incredibly and predictably stupid for the past 70 years of their existence.  They never overcame their stupidity. The oil wealth made it possible to  wallpaper their stupidity. Also the American security umbrella.

It must be an incredibly barbaric and stupid - not to mention kuffur - nation ("a'rabu ashaddu kufran" says the Quran about the Arabs) which chops off peoples' heads.  And they do it in public.  Yet this was the nation that was supported by the US.

Now, the Huffington Post says that the US is not the only power that can intercede or intervene in the Middle East.

Indeed.  From nowhere the Russians have sent troops and planes into Syria. The Americans seem paralysed to do anything about it - even if they wanted to.

The Israelis are cutting the best deal. With the lifting of sanctions against Iran (by the US) and the recent nuclear agreement, the Israelis say it will increase their (Israeli) defense and security budgets by that much more. So they want the US to pay for their increased security costs !!    Brilliant. 

The Israelis have also changed their defense doctrine  - they wish to be completely independent of any outside help for their defense.  To a large extent they have achieved this.  And they want the US to pay for this independence as well.

The Israelis have some  huge trick cards up their sleeves which are now getting even more weightier. The Middle East is just insane. The people there are stark, raving lunatics. They are all mad.  Arabs, Iranians, sunnis, shiahs and whoever. 

The Iranians have long range missiles in their arsenal now.  More instability.

Now Saudi Arabia is in danger of collapsing as well.  In January of this year another Saudi moron ascended the throne. He brought along with him a punk prince not more than 25 years old.  The father then appointed his 25 year old son as the Defence Minister. 

The 25 year old Defence Minister duly launched an unprovoked war against Yemen, the poorest Arab country in the world. For no good reason. The war is not being won by the Saudis. Instead the Yemenis have made incursions across the Saudi border and even killed two of Saudi Arabia's generals, who had popped up their heads over the sand dunes to see how their bombs were falling !!

The war is bleeding huge resources from Saudi Arabia.  An extra US$12 Billion a month according to the Huffington Post.

Folks, let me predict what will happen - the war will come to an end but perhaps under a new king. And listen to this - the Houthis are going to extract huge war reparations payments from the Saudis for all the damage the moron Saudis have done. Just wait and see. If the Saudis do not pay war reparations, the Houthis will launch a war of attrition against the Saudi border areas. They may even invade Saudi Arabia. There is no US security umbrella that can prevent this.  In the 1960s the Egyptians got their ass kicked when they sent troops to fight in Yemen.  The Saudis are using air power, they dare not send troops on the ground.

The Saudis are going to suffer major camel sh*t on their faces. Plus it is going to cost them huge amounts of money.

That is why this news of a "hospital coup" in Saudi Arabia. The other members of the Royal family (equally lunatic) have put King Salam away in a mental asylum. King Salman has been admitted to hospital for dementia. Dementia means insanity. I told you they are all stark raving lunatics. 

There maybe factionalism within the Saudi royal family.

And amidst all this insanity the Israelis are the only stable, modern, democratic country which the Americans can depend upon to safeguard whatever is left of their interests in the Middle East. This is just stating the facts.

In other words, with the mad inmates taking over the mental  asylum, the Americans will depend more on the Israelis to keep the asylum's gates securely padlocked. 

This is why I say the Israelis have some heavy cards up their sleeves which they can throw into the game.  

Conclusion : Who wants to be stupid? Ahlan wa sahlan.

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