What Will Happen If The War In Saudi Arabia Spreads

Folks, there is already a war going on inside Saudi Arabia. 

From the air, the Saudis are bombing Yemen indiscriminately. 

But on the ground, the Yemenis have since last year invaded Saudi territory. The Yemenis are now strengthening their positions inside Saudi Arabia and holding territory. Their movements are not indiscriminate.

On the map the Saudi provinces of Najran, Asir and Jizan on the border with Yemen are now partly occupied by the Yemenis. Some of this territory previously belonged to Yemen but was occupied by the Wahhabis from the Hejaz (pre Saudi).  It was "formally" annexed by Saudi Arabia as part of the kingdom in this 21st century.  Next to Najran is the province of Riyad where the capital of Saudi Arabia is located. Next to Asir is the province of Makkah (Mecca).  These are extremely very hot spots. 

The Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia or Al Syarqiyah is where most of the Saudi oil reserves are located. This region is majority shiah Arabs who have little allegiance to the house of Saud.  The island state of Bahrain is also majority shiah which has recently suffered genocide at the hands of Saudi and Pakistani troops.  
 
For now the Houthis are sitting  tight and consolidating their gains.  But I believe that given a signal, they are prepared to advance even further into Saudi Arabia.  I believe that signal may come after the liberation of Mosul in Iraq and the liberation of Raqqa in Syria.  Bothevents will consolidate Shiah power in the region.

If there are shiah 'uprisings' in the Eastern Provinces (Al Syarqiyah) and in Bahrain and the Houthis march north then Saudi Arabia will be in trouble.  The country will split along a Sunni - Shiah divide. 

Without US and British help Saudi Arabia will not last more than a day. Even now with all the help from the US and UK, they are getting their butts kicked in Jizan and Najran. Eventually the Israelis may come to the help of Saudi Arabia.

But what if the Israelis make a deal with the Iranians and let the Iranians take Mecca in exchange for leaving the Israelis alone? You never know. 

There are many 'what if' situations.  I think what is certain is that the Saudis and the Middle East are doomed. There is no such thing as 'these events are just scenarios, they will nothappen'.  It is already happening.  Syria is happening. Libya is happening. Turkey is also happening. Yemen and Saudi Arabia are happening. Iraq has happened already. There will be new states in the Middle East - Kurdistan will be one of them. It is all happening.  These are not 'wild horse' scenarios anymore.

A shiah controlled Mecca is not impossible. As we stand today, it is within reach of the shiahs already. Of course there will be more turmoil.

Todate the Iranians look upon the Saudis as foolish camelherders who have stumbled upon oil money. This is a true assessment. About the Saudi Arabian military, official comment in Iran has been 'the Saudis have bought weapons which they do not know how to use'. This is another true assessment. The Iranians do not regard the Saudis as a serious security threat. 

However  

• the Saudi (and Qatar) funding of the ISIS against shiah majority Iraq
• the fall of Mosul to the ISIS
• the Saudi funding of the war against shiahs  in Syria 
• and now the Saudi attack against shiahs in Yemen  

has shown that it is not a very clever or safe policy to ignore camelherders who have stumbled upon oil money.  The Saudis may not be a direct threat to Iran but they certainly are a threat to other countries (and allies) in the region. Iranian policy against Saudi Arabia therefore has to change, if it has not already. 

So what shall we do? Implement hudud? Ask puteri to gelek bontot? Put halal stickers everywhere? Garu tel*q? What shall we do?

When the Masjid Haram in Mecca was attacked in 1979, many Muslim people around the world just went nuts. 

They did not know how to react.  If the border war in Saudi Arabia now spreads to Meccathe entire Sunni world may join the IS. And they will go  insane.  (Ayub Khan, you may become crazy too, trying to keep up.) The IS may start blowing themselves up for nothing.  

My suggestion is a first step.  We should start thinking out these 'wild horse' scenarios.  The Research Wing (our spy department) in the PM's Office, the Majlis Keselamatan Negara, some of the universities and the think tanks should start pondering these things.  Because when it happens, then we are at least prepared.  Ok it may not happen by tomorrow.  But you never know.  

Did any of you ever think there will be a war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen? Or that Saudi Arabia will lose the war? Did anyone of you ever think that ISIS will come into being? And that they can cause so much trouble even for us. So we really dont know what can happen tomorrow. Better start thinking.