The Strength Of The Pakatan Harapan

Last nite I was hosted for dinner and an interesting discussion by 11 of my seniors from the Anglo Chinese School in Ipoh. These were folks who had completed their Form Five in 1958, 1963 and so on. At that time there was no SPM or MCE. They called it the School Certificate.  Thank you to my Elders.

One of the questions they asked me was 'How strong is the Pakatan Harapan?'  

 If you have watched the latest remake of Jungle Book (the animation) the wolves repeat their oath, 'The strength of the wolf is the pack and the strength of the pack is the wolf.'

The second part of this statement  "the strength of the pack is the wolf"  seems to apply to the Pakatan Harapan. The strength of the PH lies in two parts. The first is the individual strengths of the component parties namely the Parti Pribumi Bersatu, the DAP, Parti Amanah and the PKR. 

No matter whether it rains or shines, each one of these components have their undying supporters and voters which will translate to votes and seats to be won.

The second part of the Pakatan Harapan's strength 9which is a bonus) is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.   Dr Mahathir provides the focus and the glue to reach Putrajaya. 

Here is some info about the two previous elections. 

                                                   BN                                                                   Pakatan
 
2008                                  140 seats, 51%                                                 82 seats, 48%


2013                                  133 seats (-7)                                                     89 seats (+7)
Popular vote                   5,237,699                                                            5,623,984
%                                        47.4 % (-4%)                                                     51.0% (+3%) 

Well,  since Tan Sri Muhyiddin, Mukriz and a few other leaders are no more in the BN, the BN's seat count is even less.

There are 222 Parliamentary seats, so you need 111 + 1 = 112 seats to form the federal government. 

165 Parliamentary seats are on the Peninsula and 57 are in Sarawak and Sabah.
The Pakatan Harapan need only win 20 more seats to topple the BN. 

Talk is that DAP will be contesting 40 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula.
Parti Bersatu will be contesting 55 seats.
The PKR will be contesting 50 seats in the Peninsula.  
Parti Amanah may contest  20 seats  

Both DAP (and the PKR) will contest some Parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak.

The DAP holds 31 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula, 5 seats in Sarawak and 2 more in Sabah (total of 38). This means the DAP is contesting an extra NINE seats in the Peninsula. The DAP may also contest more than the SEVEN seats they already have in Sarawak and Sabah.

   
Since time is short and resources are limited some observers suggest that Pakatan deploy its resources carefully for maximum effect.
 
It is suggested that Mukriz  Mahathir focus extra efforts to win all the Parliamentary and State seats in Kedah for the Pakatan.

Similarly Tan Sri Muhyiddin should focus extra efforts on securing Johor.

Tun Dr Mahathir has been doing a great job among the  Felda areas  and also as chief campaigner in other constituencies throughout the Peninsula. 

Parti Amanah seems to be strongest in Kelantan and has good potential to rout PAS and UMNO from some of the seats.  Husam in Kelantan and his Amanah cohorts should focus heavily on Kelantan.

As the incumbent State government in Selangor, PKR should work extra hard to win even more Parliamentary and State seats in Selangor for  Pakatan candidates.

The same applies for the DAP in Penang. 

There are some internal issues in the PKR.   The party has three power centres namely the Anwar Ibrahim family, Azmin and his Selangor group and finally  Rafizi Ramli and his technical boys.  However the ground support for the PKR is still intact and does not seem to have any adverse effect on the party's popularity.

The Pakatan need only win an extra 20 Parliamentary seats to defeat the BN.

Lets say Parti Bersatu wins a minimum 10 seats. 
DAP wins THREE extra seats. 
PKR wins THREE extra seats. 
Amanah wins FOUR seats. 
Its game over for the BN.

We are not including Parti Warisan in Sabah.  
Or the Pakatan Harapan's   Dayak friends in Sarawak. 

Its Game Over for the BN.