FOR Andak Ahmad, the biggest issue among Felda settlers is the cost of living. It dominates conversations and sends the mercury rising.
He figured that angst over the rising cost of goods will decide how people vote in his patch in the next elections.
“We have been squeezed by high prices of goods. When prices go up, they don’t go down. Although petrol and diesel prices fluctuate every week, if you look carefully, there are more times it has increased than decreased,” said the 40-year-old settler from Jengka in Pahang.
He would not say who he would vote for at GE14 but noted cryptically that the opposition is doing a good job of making cogent arguments about the failures of the government.
His words and percolating anger over the cost of living are music to the ears of Liew Chin Tong, the DAP’s political education director.
Liew is confident that a sizeable chunk of Malays who voted Barisan Nasional will abandon the ruling coalition, creating a Malay tsunami that will push Najib Razak out of power.
He is confident that a combination of anger over the rising cost of living and Najib’s unpopularity because of the 1MDB scandal will turn Malays against the only political coalition that has ruled the country since Merdeka in 1957.
His views on the Malay tsunami have drawn derision from political commentators and Umno politicians, but Liew is unfazed.
He faced cynicism in 2013 when he said the opposition would make significant inroads in Johor, the bastion of Umno. He was proven correct five years ago.
Looking back at GE13, he said, there was no Malay swing towards the opposition. Indeed, Malay support for BN was 64%, up from 59% in 2008.
The lowest percentage of Malay support for BN was 54% in 1999, a year after the sacking of Anwar Ibrahim for sodomy.
Liew said in 2013, the approval rating for Prime Minister Najib among the Malays was 66%. His popularity dropped to 44% in the last approval ratings released by Merdeka Centre in January 2015.
Merdeka Centre, which began tracking the prime minister’s approval ratings in 2012, has since stopped releasing the ratings.
Liew said Najib’s 20% drop in popularity pointed to a vacuum among Malay voters and the possibility that the disenchanted voters will seek a new political home.
“Where will these 20% Malay voters go to now? Will they go to PAS, Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Harapan?”
Ready for change
Liew, who gambled and moved from Penang (Bukit Bendera) to Johor (Kluang), said the southern state is ready for change in GE14, expected to be held by May.
In GE13, Pakatan Rakyat surprised everyone by mounting a successful campaign in Johor by winning 12 additional state seats, bring its total to 18 out of the 56-seat assembly and four more federal seats.
Besides Kluang, PR also took Batu Pahat, Gelang Patah and Kulai. All the four new seats were mixed seats with Malay voters ranging from 33%-52%.
“There are at least 11 mixed seats – Segamat, Labis, Ledang, Ayer Hitam, Simpang Renggam, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, Johor Bahru, Pulai, Tanjong Piai – with lower than 60% Malay voters.
“With the fallout over PAS and Umno, we only need a 15% swing from Malay voters to win these seats,” he added.
Analysts have predicted that PAS stands to lose the most support among its unconvinced supporters and non-Malay voters following its pullout from Pakatan Harapan.
Even president Abdul Hadi Awang is not safe in his own constituency, Marang.
“PAS cannot gain more votes in these elections. Only a Hadi and PAS loyalists will vote for them. And their support will be even worse in a mixed state like Johor where they are weak,” said the 40-year-old Liew, a second-term MP.
According to 2015 data from the Department of Statistics, Johor consists of 55% Malays, Chinese (30%), Indians (6.5%) and others (8%).
Ifs and hows
While multi-cornered fights and re-delineation exercises have historically favoured BN, Liew believed that this advantage would be nullified if Malays are upset with the current government.
“The extra Malay seats will work against BN if non-Malays continue to back PH and with the Malay vote split three ways between Bersatu, PAS and Umno, the ruling coalition is at a disadvantage,” said the Australian graduate.
The re-delineation exercise has created more Malay majority and super non-Malay majority seats (Seputeh, Cheras, PJ Utara,) and any swing among Malay voters will affect BN more adversely than PH, said Liew.
Liew’s critics are not convinced about his prediction of a Malay tsunami.
Political commentators, pollsters and seasoned politicians said his scenario is stacked with too many ifs and lopsided assumptions.
Yes, while there is disquiet in the Malay ground over the cost of living, it is presumptuous to believe that Malay voters who traditionally voted BN would be moved to experiment politically.
This is especially true for more conservative elements of the Malay vote bank which equate Umno being in power with preservation of Malay political and religious supremacy.
Critics also noted that while Najib has been scarred by scandals, he has consolidated in power in Umno and is more secure politically than he was, say ,12 months ago.
Recent polls also suggest that his approval rating among the Malays has climbed to the high 50s.
The differing views on whether a Malay tsunami is going to happen were captured during a recent presentation in Universiti Malaya.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Dr Mazlan Ali said he noticed “Malay ripples” surfacing at events attended by Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Mazlan said there is a phenomenon similar to 1999 where people who do not normally participate in politics are coming out and attending certain ceramah.
“There’s no wave yet but some ripples are there. So, it looks like a wave is coming,” Mazlan said.
Mazlan said the observations were made when he attended four of Dr Mahathir’s events in Pasir Puteh, Kuala Berang, Jerantut and Semenyih last year.
On the other hand, Prof Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali said he did not see any parallels between 1999 and 2018.
There is no political tumult in Umno like what happened after the sacking of Anwar and no public uprising like what happened after the black-eye affair.
“PAS is confused by the infighting while middle-class Malays are becoming more religious. So, if Umno can move the middle-class Malays, they can still benefit,” said Asri.
During police questioning, Anwar was punched by then inspector-general of police Abdul Rahim Mohd Noor.
In the 1999 election campaign, the opposition printed posters featuring Anwar with a black eye after he emerged from the police lock-up.
As a result of that, it was estimated that 20% of the Malay vote swung against BN.
Liew said: “2018’s black eye is Najib’s double denial of the hardships felt by the general population over cost of living issues and the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal.
“1MDB has not affected anyone directly but everyone knows he has taken the money. And while the government says the economy is in good shape, the bottom 40 is still grappling with higher costs, weaker ringgit and poor employment.
“If 1999 had one black eye, 2018 has two black eyes.”
He said anything more than a 10% swing among Malay voters and Najib and BN will be in trouble across the country.
If the swing is less than 5%, it is Pakatan Harapan and Liew Chin Tong who will be counting their losses.
– https://www.themalaysianinsight.com
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