The belt of Pahang VIPs - will a domino effect burn BN?

SPECIAL REPORT | In the coming 14th general election (GE14), a VIP belt of marginal seats which lies in the western part of Pahang will decide the fate of several top guns from both sides of the divide - seats that are widely expected to be the most hotly contested battlefields in the peninsula.

This “Pahang VIP (very important persons) belt” covers five parliamentary seats - Cameron Highlands, Raub, Temerloh, Bentong and Bera - an area that includes the Titiwangsa mountain range and spans over 300km.

These seats could switch hands with only five percent swing in votes. Indeed, a few of them were won with just hundreds of votes in the last general election in 2013.

From Cameron Highlands to Bera, this VIP belt sees big names from both political divides, be they defenders or challengers.

They include MCA president Liow Tiong Lai, party vice-president Chew Mei Fun, Pahang DAP chief Leong Ngah Ngah, PAS information chief Nasrudin Hassan Tantawi and Umno supreme council member Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

Liow and Ismail hold posts in the cabinet as transport minister and rural and regional development minister respectively.

Geographically, these areas are about one to three hours of driving distance from the nation's capital, with the East Coast Highway connecting Kuala Lumpur to the state’s capital, Kuantan. Many voters from these regions of Pahang are working in cities in the Klang Valley.

Should the opposition gain momentum in GE14, it could create a domino effect against the BN in this VIP belt in Pahang, a state that has been solidly behind the ruling coalition since the first general election and the birthplace of two prime ministers – Abdul Razak Hussein and his son, Najib.

Pahang, the largest state in the peninsula, has a vast expanse of forest and mountains. When the Communist Party of Malaya (CPM) went underground, Pahang was one of its major bases. CPM established the 10th Malay Regiment in Temerloh as a wing of the predominantly-Chinese Malayan National Liberation Army (MNLA), and this in a way planted the seeds of dissent. 

Still, it will not be an easy task for the opposition to create the domino effect.

Pahang has 14 parliamentary seats. In GE13, Umno won eight, while MCA and MIC garnered only one each. As for the opposition, PKR bagged two seats, while DAP and PAS have one each.

Vote majorities in GE13 below 500

BN secured both Cameron Highlands and Bentong in 2013 with not more than 500 votes, making them the most marginal seats in Pahang.

For Cameron Highlands, thanks to a five-cornered fight, former MIC president G Palanivel edged out DAP candidate M Manogaran with a sliver of 462 votes.

It is widely expected that this parliamentary constituency will see a multi-cornered fight in GE14 as well, with the ruling coalition and several opposition parties having voiced their intention to contest the seat.

The MIC is likely to field its Youth wing chief Sivarraajh Chandran to defend the seat as Palanivel has been dropped as he no longer holds any post in the party. Another BN member party, the People’s Progressive Party (MyPPP) led by M Kayveas is also eyeing the seat.

As for the opposition, DAP is expected to field Manogaran again, while Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) has stated that its Orang Asli affairs bureau coordinator and local branch chief B Suresh Kumar would contest there.

Cameron Highlands has 12 percent of Indian voters and 20 percent Orang Asli, with the remaining made up equally of Malays and Chinese.

In the event of a multi-cornered fight, it will be a big question mark as to who will emerge the victor.

Who will be Raub's 'Musang King'?

South of Cameron Highlands is Raub, once an MCA stronghold. On the eve of GE13, former MCA women’s wing chief Ng Yen Yen, a three-term Raub parliamentarian, was dropped and the seat was defended by senior Pahang state executive councillor Hoh Khai Mun.

Eventually, with the opposition riding on a “Chinese tsunami”, Mohd Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz of DAP, nicknamed Sakmongkol AK47, captured Raub with a 2,814-vote majority. This was also the first time that the BN lost this seat to the opposition.

However, Ariff (photo) is not likely to re-contest in Raub after suffering a stroke last year. Since then, Pahang DAP chief Leong Ngah Ngah has been active in Raub.

Leong is Tanah Rata assemblyperson, a seat under Cameron Highlands. He is expected to defend Raub for DAP and is likely to battle against MCA’s Chew Mei Fun, a former deputy women, family and community development minister.

In 2010, Chew made the pledge to resign from her posts in the party and government if Chua Soi Lek became MCA president. She therefore did not contest in GE13. Chew returned to politics after Liow took over from Chua. She has been working in Raub in recent years and vowed to recapture the seat for MCA.

Bentong: A 'do or die' battle for MCA

Next to Raub is Bentong, where the GE14 election battle could well be a "do or die" battle for MCA.

MCA president Liow has been Bentong MP for almost 20 years - since 1999 - but at the last general election, the party boss held on to the seat with a razor-thin majority of 379 votes against environmental group Himpunan Hijau president Wong Tack.

Wong Tack, following his narrow defeat in the intense battle, is expected to return for a rematch, contesting under the DAP, of which he is a member.

Bentong has 45 percent Malay voters, 44 percent Chinese and nine percent Indians. The key for Liow to remain Bentong parliamentarian for his fifth consecutive term will not only depend on a shift in preference among Chinese voters but also whether Pahang Menteri Besar Adnan Yaakob will contest in the upcoming election.

Of the four state seats under Bentong, BN only won Pelangi in GE13, which was held by Adnan.

It has been speculated that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak intends to remove him, and Adnan himself has not ruled out the possibility of quitting politics ahead of GE14.

Should Adnan step down, Liow may lose some crucial Malay votes as he no longer has a menteri besar candidate to campaign for him.

Can PAS defend Temerloh?

Compared to west Pahang, Temerloh and Bera are both located in the middle of the peninsula, and have a different political landscape.

Temerloh, the first parliamentary seat PAS won in the state in over a decade, has 64 percent Malay voters, 24 percent Chinese and nine percent Indian voters.

In GE13, Nasrudin Hassan Tantawi of PAS wrested the seat from then deputy higher education minister Saifuddin Abdullah by a thin margin of just 1,070 votes or a 1.8 percent majority.

Now that PAS has broken ties with PKR and DAP, it is unlikely to be able to retain the sizeable number of non-Malay voters who backed Nasrudin in the last election.

image: https://i.malaysiakini.com/1108/dfc7287ba8913db4d

Since then, Nasrudin (photo) has been widely speculated to be planning to jettison Temerloh for a safer seat in Kelantan or Terengganu. Nevertheless, Nasrudin said it would be up to the party to decide whether he stays or leaves the seat.

Malaysiakini understands that the frontrunner replacement will likely be Temerloh PAS division chief Yusof Darus, whereas the likely challenger from Pakatan Harapan could be Syed Hamid Syed Mohamed of Amanah, whose party has been given the role to field a candidate there.

But now that Temerloh will be a three-cornered fight, BN is favoured to win in this round.

Felda, the kingmaker of Bera

For the Bera constituency, Umno’s Ismail has never tasted defeat since this seat was created in 1999, and he retained it with a 2,143-vote majority in the last GE.

All seems well for Ismail, but a closer check indicates the contrary.

In the last GE, he garnered just 50.6 percent of the total votes cast, slightly ahead of his PKR opponent Zakaria Abdul Hamid, who obtained 45.5 percent of the votes in a three-cornered fight.

The kingmakers in this constituency are the Felda settlers. Bera has 14 Felda settlements, the home of about 45 percent of the voters. In the last GE, Ismail won almost 70 percent of the Felda votes.

However, an analysis by Malaysiakini indicated that if 10 percent of the Felda voters and five percent of the non-Felda voters switch sides, BN will lose 10 parliamentary seats, and Bera is one of these.

It also explains Harapan's dogged efforts in penetrating the Felda settlements, with Bersatu chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad visiting Bera and held a ceramah that pulled a 6,000-strong crowd.

Another challenge for Ismail may well come from his own party.

There are three state seats under Bera - Teriang (held by DAP), Guai (Umno) and Kemayan (Umno). It is known that Ismail has been at loggerheads with the two Umno assemblypersons, and this may affect him in the coming election.

Being a top leader in Umno, Ismail (photo) is widely seen as one of the potential vice-presidents of the party.

However, as Felda has been embroiled in scandals after scandals in recent years, and the fact that Harapan has prioritised campaigning in Felda settlements, it will deliver a heavy blow for Umno should Ismail meet his Waterloo in the next GE.

On the other hand, the coming election will see an increase of 1,234 army voters in Bera, which has been criticised by the opposition as a move to secure Ismail the seat.

Will BN's vote bank go on fire?

Being Najib's home state and the ruling coalition's long-time vote bank, BN’s morale would take a beating should several ministers fall in the state in GE14.

The loss of these top guns may further cripple the position of their respective parties in BN, even kicking off power struggles within their own parties.

Moreover, it would definitely be an embarrassment for Najib if there is a fire in his own backyard, for this would give those within Umno who wish to challenge him the opportunity to pile pressure on him.

However, the PAS factor may help BN in this blue state.

In the last GE, PAS contested six parliamentary seats and 21 state seats in Pahang - the largest number of seats contested by an opposition party in the state.

Although PAS eventually won one parliamentary seat and three state seats, it does have well-organised grassroots, with party number two Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man leading the fight in this state.

As three-cornered fights will be unavoidable in the coming polls, the fate of BN and Harapan in Pahang may well be decided by PAS.- Mkini