IF the elections are held today, Barisan Nasional is expected to retain power even if it has lost the trust of six out of every 10 voters.
A study by think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan found BN will win a majority of the 222 parliamentary seats, but with just 42% of the popular vote.
Despite a drop in the popular vote from 47% in the 13th general election, BN is expected to win more parliamentary seats compared with the 133 it captured five years ago, the think-tank said.
This is because of the redrawing of electoral boundaries or re-delineation, which creates more mono-ethnic constituencies, said IDE deputy chairman Dr Redzuan Othman.
BN, Redzuan said, is also expected to retain Johor, which is facing an onslaught from Pakatan Harapan, but it will lose Kedah.
The study, which polled 5,000 respondents and used 95 enumerators, ended on March 26.
“What is for sure, according to this research, PH, in particular, Amanah, will defeat PAS in Kelantan but in the west coast, PAS will defeat PH,” the Unisel vice-chancellor said.
The study also found that PAS will lose Kelantan, which it has ruled for close to three decades due to three-cornered fights.
“PAS will get several seats but it will not retain the state government.”
In Johor, the Malays would support Umno despite the fact that they are unhappy with the Najib administration.
“The Muhyiddin influence is not strong enough to pull Umno supporters to PH but the Dr Mahathir and Mukhriz influence will draw Umno support in Kedah for PH.”
PH’s campaign in Johor is being led former Umno deputy president and Johor menteri besar Muhyiddin Yassin, who is the opposition coalition’s Johor chief.
PH prime minister-designate Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son, Mukhriz Mahathir, are expected to contest in Kedah.
“This is the current study, it will be different if there is a wave of change after the dissolution of Parliament,” Redzuan said.
IDE also found that PH will continue to rule in Selangor and Penang but Umno will the party to win the most seats in Selangor.
“Umno will win up to 20 seats in Selangor through the new re-delineation, but the cooperation in PH will ensure the current government remains in power,” Redzuan said, referring to the 56-seat Selangor assembly.
PAS is expected to lose all its 13 state seats in Selangor when it won’t even win 1% of the Chinese vote and only 14% of the Malay votes. In 2013, it garnered 18% of the Malay vote.
“It appears that PAS will be isolated in Selangor and also will be the loner in the elections,” Redzuan said.
The study also found that BN coalition parties like MCA, Gerakan and MIC will be almost wiped out because of the shape and character of the new electoral constituencies.
“The issue is, will the public accept such a result? Umno will win big but the component parties will lose it all, through the manipulation of electoral boundaries,” Redzuan added.
The new electoral boundaries report was passed yesterday despite a protest earlier and the opposition vote against it.
It is speculated that the new boundaries will create more Malay-majority seats and a smaller number of non-Malay majority seats.
Critics said new boundaries are to give BN an advantage on the presumption that Malays will largely support the party in GE14.
IDE is expected to table the detailed study at a seminar in early April.
– https://www.themalaysianinsight.com
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