Dr Mahathir's Check Mate Is Real Or Is It Just A Poker Face vs Anwar, DAP And Amanah's Superior Position

Ok folks with reference to Dr Mahathir's  knockout punch from last night, here is some analysis by me of where I think are the strengths and weaknesses of Dr Mahathir versus Anwar, DAP and Amanah.  

I am referring to Dr Mahathir's slap in the face, checkmate and utter contempt for Anwar, DAP and possibly Parti Amanah at last nite's PH presidential council meeting.

Listen to the video again.  Dr Mahathir is basically saying "It is I and only I who will decide when and if I will step down as PM or not.  Thats it. Take it or leave it."

Folks is this really Dr Mahathir's checkmate? 
Or is it just Dr Mahathir playing poker? 

There is a possibility that Anwar, the DAP and Amanah may be holding a superior position.

For ease of reading I will divide this analysis into FOUR parts.

1. The status quo. 

This is what has come out of last night's meeting. 
No change. Everything remains as it is.


Some people were expecting that at the very least Anwar would be appointed as Deputy PM, replacing his wife. No that is not going to happen. Anwar will not even be made a Cabinet Minister, despite there being a vacancy in Cabinet.  

I have said this 3,660 times now  - if Dr Mahathir will not even let Anwar into the Cabinet, it simply means Anwar will never be PM. Ever.  Full stop.  This is the status quo option now.

The DAP (and their mouthpiece Malaysiakini) absolutely want Anwar to be PM. The DAP knows all of Anwar's skeletons. They have a complete X ray profile of Anwar so they think they can manage him. That is what they think. It is in the interests of the DAP to fully weaken Malay unity and Malay political dominance as much as possible and for as long as possible. They see Anwar as a huge weakness (the weakest link) in Malay political dominance. Other than his huge skeletons, basically Mr Lim Kit Siang and the DAP knows Anwar is not well educated and also not very intelligent. They think they can manipulate him to weaken Malay political dominance. And I think they can do this.

But that can only happen IF Anwar becomes PM. 

That is not going to happen at any time.

So under this status quo scenario,  Dr Mahathir remains as PM for as long as Dr M remains in office.  The country will just have to wait THREE more years for the next GE to see who shall form the government. But the PM will not be Anwar Ibrahim.

2.  Anwar cannot force a snap election by pulling out of PH.

At last night's meeting I think Dr Mahathir has obviously fallen back on those 138 or whatever BN and non-BN MPs (including Ass-man's Team Semburit) who have pledged to support him. Dr Mahathir has obviously used this to threaten the Pakatan Harapan. "If you want to challenge me and pull out of the PH then go ahead. Make my day. I will rearrange the coalition (with UMNO, PAS, GPS, Warisan etc) and still be Prime Minister."

This appears to be Dr Mahathir's 'nuclear option'. 'I will blow everything up and team up with UMNO, PAS, Warisan, GPS and BN.'

So even if Anwar, DAP and Amanah pull out of Pakatan Harapan, it will not force a snap election. Because Dr Mahathir will simply collect the 138 Statutory Declarations. present them to the YDP Agong and form a new coalition government.  No snap elections.

Anwar, the DAP and Amanah will have to cross over and sit in the Opposition in Parliament. So far only Mat Sabu of Amanah seems ok with this option.  Sabu does not mind dumping Pakatan Harapan and sitting in the Opposition.

So is this a checkmate by Dr Mahathir?

Or is he just playing poker? 

3. Dr Mahathir will be held at ransom by UMNO/PAS

I think Dr Mahathir is playing poker. 

I dont think Dr Mahathir has a checkmate.

I look at it like this. Yes Dr Mahathir can go for the nuclear option. 

And yes Dr Mahathir most likely already has those 138 MPs on his side, especially the UMNO and PAS MPs. 

Enough to dump Anwar, dump DAP, dump Amanah and form a new coalition government.

But in such a coalition government Dr Mahathir will be held at ransom by UMNO. 

And also by PAS. 

Najib may walk, the fat lady will sing again, Javaman will be back with blue osen strategi.  

The PAS guys may ask for RM4.0 Billion, on top of that RM400 million.

Dr Mahathir will be held completely at ransom by UMNO, PAS etc. 

It is Dr Mahathir who will become a super lame duck.

And what does this really mean? This means the people (all people Malays, Iban, Chinese, Indians etc) will not only vote against Dr Mahathir (or his coalition) in 2023 but worse than that they will piss on Dr Mahathir's grave.

So Dr Mahathir must think very carefully.

Because Dr M will have no more options.  

If things go wrong with UMNO/PAS - and they will - Dr M cannot go back to Pakatan Harapan. 

So do you  think that Dr Mahathir really wants to dump the Pakatan Harapan (Anwar, DAP, Amanah etc) and hook up with UMNO and PAS? 

I dont think so. 

So last nite, Dr Mahathir was just playing poker. 
It was not a checkmate.

Dr Mahathir's does not really have any other option.

So if Anwar, DAP and Amanah had stood their ground and pushed for a power transition in May or November or June or September etc it is possible that they would have got their wish.

That was a missed opportunity. 

Dr Mahathir was bluffing. 

He was just playing poker. 

And he managed to frighten Anwar Ibrahim and the DAP.

Only Mat Sabu seems ready to quit the Pakatan.

Because forming a coalition with UMNO / PAS is not a solution for Dr Mahathir.

UMNO is so full of sh_t (Najib, Zahid, Rosmah, Ku Nan, 1MDB, Altantuya etc) that Dr Mahathir will drown in the UMNO cess pool. 

Dr Mahathir really does not have a nuclear option.

4.  What about the people - you and me - where do the people stand? 

The people are fed up with Dr Mahathir, Anwar Ibrahim, Semburit, Pakatan Harapan, UMNO, PAS and possibly Warisan as well.

Last years GDP growth was 4.3%. 
4th quarter 2019 growth was 3.6%. 
The economy is dying. 
There are no job opportunities. 

Yet they want to bring in 150,000 Pakistani labourers, more Bangla workers etc.
Why do you need so many foreign workers when the economy is dying? 

And now Dr Mahathir is talking through his ass about the 2nd and 3rd national cars !!

Then the people are getting tired of the  Najib, Rosmah, Zahid, Ku Nan, Azeez, Altantuya, Amri Che Mat, Pastor Koh, Indira Gandhi etc cases which are dragging endlessly. The Court can even be postponed for weddings !!

Yesterday pictures and video of strangely dressed mamaks at an obviously mamak wedding went viral.  One of the mamaks has been charged in Court with telan duit rakyat of RM9.0 million. The other mami woman telan over RM250 million duit rakyat in that cow mama scandal. She is also in Court again. Again.

The people are getting tired of reading about all these  telan duit cases with no quick resolution in the Courts.

Then there are really stupid Ministerial replies which do not solve real world problems.

The Selangor MB says it is better to develop forest reserve lands  now to avoid forest fires later !! Kepala hotak bodoh macam ini pun boleh jadi MB kah?

Kalau macam itu, why not ask the Bomba to carefully burn down the forest reserves now ? So that there will be no more tress to burn in future forest fires?

So if there is a snap election neither Dr Mahathir, PH, DAP, Anwar Ibrahim, PKR or UMNO or PAS or BN are going to win the majority support of the people.  

It is going to be a hung Parliament with no clear cut majority in Parliament.

I think that will be the best option for the country.
There will no more be any more "huge power blocs" in Parliament. 

There will no more be a PH coalition, a BN coalition etc.

The country will become like India, Italy, Israel etc where the coalition governments are formed only AFTER the election results are known.

There will not be any more permanent coalitions in Malaysia. 
There will be no more permanent BN coalition or permanent PH coalition.

This is not a bad situation at all.

So my suggestion is dissolve Parliament now.
Lets take our chances at the General Elections. 

We should not wait for three years because there may not be an economy left in three years from now.