The Perikatan Nasional alliance will face its first major litmus test at the Johor state assembly next Thursday.
This is amid simmering tensions between Umno and Bersatu in the state, as well as a seeming lack of cohesion between the two at the federal level.
The May 14 sitting could go one of three ways.
On paper, the session is supposed to end right after Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar delivers his royal address with no further proceedings in the House after that.
Embattled state assembly speaker Suhaizan Kaiat has dismissed the possibility of extending the session beyond one day due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing conditional movement control order.
However, he has said that if either side makes a request to extend the sitting into the afternoon, it would be considered.
If extended, this opens up the possibility of PN tabling a motion to replace Suhaizan, who is a non-assemblyperson appointed speaker.
On the other hand, Pakatan Harapan could also table a motion of no-confidence against Menteri Besar Hasni Mohammad.
Either option could destabilise the balance of power in the state and pave the way for snap polls.
This is as PN does not hold a solid footing in the state assembly holding 29 seats against 27 by Harapan. A single defection would result in a hung assembly.
Of the 29 from PN, Umno commands 14 while Bersatu has the allegiance of 11.
Recent developments indicate that Hasni does not have the full support of Bersatu representatives.
A senior Bersatu source has claimed that Hasni's office is trying to get statutory declarations (SDs) from party assemblypersons to support the removal of the state assembly speaker.
However, the source said he was not sure how many have actually signed.
Johor PKR deputy chief Jimmy Puah claimed that some Bersatu assemblypersons aligned to Dr Mahathir Mohamad have rejected signing the SDs.
However, Bersatu leaders aligned to Muhyiddin Yassin have also been at odds with Umno over allegations that the former were being sidelined over political appointments.
Former Johor menteri besar Osman Sapian, when contacted, expressed dissatisfaction at Umno's seeming rejection of PN.
The Umno supreme council had on Monday, too, rejected formally joining PN.
"Bersatu is in flux, we have not been told what is actually going on," Osman told Malaysiakini.
"(However), I've been informed by the prime minister (Muhyiddin) himself that he will give a comprehensive briefing regarding current developments and Bersatu's place in PN.
"It just has to wait for the MCO to end. But we're concerned that even before the MCO ends there will a blow-up," he said.
A Johor political insider, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, claimed that Hasni was also facing internal opposition
He claimed that many in Umno did not expect Hasni would become menteri besar when PN took over the state government in late February.
He also claimed that in a WhatsApp group for Johor PN assemblypersons, Umno representatives had not been defending the menteri besar from Bersatu attacks.
The senior Bersatu source alleged that the WhatsApp group is real. However, Umno Sungai Balang assemblyperson Zaiton Ismail denied the existence of such a group.
According to the political insider, whatever happens next Thursday, the Johor palace would prefer stability over snap polls.
However, he said if the situation was not salvageable, Sultan Ibrahim could exercise his discretion to dissolve the state assembly.
Section 7(2)(b) of the Johor Constitution states that the monarch also has the discretion to "withhold consent" on a request to dissolve the state assembly.
Snap polls would likely result in Bersatu and Umno facing off, but it would be unclear if the former will stand together with Harapan in Johor due to the internal schism between Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin.
Muhyiddin is expected to meet with Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang to discuss the PN situation soon. - Mkini
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