What message will Melaka voters send tomorrow?

 

Tomorrow’s Melaka state election will depend as much on how voters vote as it will on whether they come out to vote.

Two factors will be playing on the minds of the voters: whether to risk the possibility of catching Covid-19, and whether it is worth the trouble to vote in politicians who could betray them yet again.

There are 495,195 registered voters in the state, including 11,557 early voters and 7,601 postal voters. The impressive early voter turnout of 89.9% on Nov 16, higher than the 76.2% in the last general election, does not say much as most of the early voters were policemen and soldiers who follow orders and who are not expected to be intimidated by a virus.

A friend in Melaka tells me that some people are jaded and just want to get on with their lives as they struggle to adapt to the damage caused by Covid-19. He said they felt the polls should not be held in the first place, given the pandemic.

Many others don’t have confidence that those who are going to be elected will not jump party after Nov 20.

He said: “It is like the old Tamil saying, ‘Raman aandahl yenna, Ravanan aandahl yenna?’”

It means, whether Rama (the hero of the epic Mahabharata) or Ravana (the villain in the same epic) rules, the life of the common man will remain a struggle. Which seems to be the sorry story of Malaysia in recent decades.

The question is: Who will win the election?

Most people I’ve spoken to say it is between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN). Some of them say BN has the edge while others say PH will take back the state it won in the 2018 general election, only to lose it later to Perikatan Nasional (PN) due to defections.

The PN state government headed by Sulaiman Ali of Umno collapsed when four assemblymen declared they no longer supported him, resulting in Sulaiman getting the Yang di-Pertua Negeri to dissolve the state legislative assembly.

I want to look at the possible messages the voters of Melaka will be sending on polling day.

If they give PH a decisive win on Nov 20, it could mean they are sore about being robbed of their choice of government soon after GE14. It could mean they feel PH was robbed of its mandate to govern and it is their duty to return it.

It could be that they feel PH was better, or would be better, for Melaka, and that they are looking for political stability in the state. It could also mean they want a coalition with a better racial balance, not a coalition dominated by a single race.

But if they feel PH is not united and that voting it into power will not resolve the problem of political stability at national level, they’ll look elsewhere. If they feel giving the state to PH so near the next general election may not benefit them, they’ll not give PH a resounding victory.

Melaka voters will give their vote to the Umno-led BN if they feel there was stability and the economy did well prior to GE14 when BN ruled. Giving BN a decisive win could show they value political stability and the revival of the economy and that BN, despite its flaws, is better suited to lead the nation.

But if they do vote the BN into power, they’d also be saying that they are not bothered about the allegations of corruption against Umno leaders and the court cases involving former prime minister Najib Razak and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and others.

The message would either be that they are tolerant of corruption or that they don’t believe Umno leaders are corrupt. Or that they believe just because some Umno leaders at the federal level may be corrupt, it does not mean Melaka Umno leaders are also corrupt.

If they feel strongly that political stability and economic recovery are more important than ethics and reforms, they’ll give BN a resounding win.

A strong win for Umno could also indicate that voters believe Umno has since changed; that it has learned its lessons and is now more sober.

If Malay voters believe Umno’s claim that only Umno can protect the rights of the Malays and safeguard the position of Islam, they’ll vote for the party.

Melaka voters will elect PN candidates into the state legislative assembly if they feel PN has done a great job at the federal level and in Melaka too.

Giving PN a strong victory could mean that Melaka voters feel there was nothing wrong with the decision of Bersatu, the backbone of PN, to abandon PH after winning in GE14.

If Malay voters believe that PN will be better than Umno at protecting their rights and safeguarding the status of Islam – despite the fact that neither Malay rights nor Islam are under threat from anyone – they’d give their full support to PN.

If they vote for candidates from PAS, which is part of PN, it could mean they support the actions of the party, such as the recent decision by the PAS government in Kedah to effectively ban licensed gambling; and that they are open to the same happening in Melaka.

If they vote in a few independents, it would be a slap in the face of all the political parties. It would mean Melaka voters are fed up of the sneaky political games played by the parties. It would mean voters are now ready to vote for individuals rather than parties.

If, however, there is no clear winner in the election, it will likely mean that Melaka voters have no clear choice; that none of the parties is good enough. Or they may feel, “Raman aandahl yenna, Ravanan aandahl yenna?”

Whatever Melaka voters decide, it will have some bearing on the next general election. It will certainly affect the fluid political alignments that we now have, especially in the Umno-Bersatu-PAS cluster.

The result could also likely indicate what we can expect to happen in GE15.

Going by demographics, Melaka mirrors the racial makeup of voters in the peninsula. About 60% of Melaka voters are Malays, about 30% are Chinese and the rest are Indians and others.

Since, as a nation, we haven’t reached sufficient maturity to move away from racial and religious politics, since there are some weak parties that depend on raising racial and religious issues to win, we’ll continue to live under the horrible shadow of race and religion-based politics for a while yet.

But perhaps the voters of Melaka, the land of legends, can set a new trend where being Malaysian matters more than race and religion, where cooperation and clean politics are honoured. Perhaps they can help lead us away from narrow, parochial, race-based politics.

After all wasn’t this once a great maritime kingdom on par with top cities such as Venice and Canton and Cairo, and which exuded a cosmopolitan atmosphere? Wasn’t Melaka a centre of world trade in the 15th century, a melting pot of diverse cultures where, it is said, 84 languages were spoken? - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.