Study: PN attracted 80pct of ex-BN Malay voters in 2023 state polls

 

A study on voter trends in the 2023 state election has revealed that DAP saw an increase in Malay support by collaborating with former foe, Umno.

However, the paper prepared by former two-term MP Ong Kian Ming showed that four out of five Malay voters who previously supported BN in seats contested by DAP voted for Perikatan Nasional in the state election.

Ong holds a doctorate in political science from Duke University.

The paper, titled “Scrutinising the DAP’s Success in the 2023 Malaysian State Elections”, used granular polling station and polling stream data for 47 seats DAP contested to explore the effect of its new relationship on voter support.

“Following the formation of the coalition government in Dec 2022, two of its component coalitions, Pakatan Harapan and BN, jointly campaigned during the state election held in Aug 2023.

“A key question arising from this cooperation between Harapan and the BN lead party Umno was the extent to which it would strengthen the appeal of both coalitions, especially among Malay voters,” read the study.

It indicated that DAP gained an average five percent increase in the level of support from 2022 to 2023, with an eight percent increase in Malay support and a two percent increase in Chinese support.

“DAP would probably still have won at least 41 of these state seats without transferring BN/Umno votes, but working with Umno allowed DAP to win by comfortable margins some of what would usually be marginal seats for the party.

“The increase in support for DAP was highest in Negeri Sembilan, at 6.7 percent, followed by Selangor at 5.2 percent, Penang at 4.3 percent and finally Kedah at 1.4 percent,” it said.

More PN support in DAP seats

The study showed that DAP gained the largest transfer of Malay votes from older voters who show stronger allegiance to BN.

“These findings show that Umno’s grassroots outreach is still somewhat effective among older voters but much less so among younger voters,” it concluded.

However average support for PN in these DAP-contested seats increased from 13.1 percent in the 15th general election to 19.2 percent in the state election.

“Clearly, more of the Malay votes that previously supported BN went to PN than to Harapan.

“The calculations show that four out of five Malay voters who previously supported BN in these seats voted for PN in the state election,” the study found.

It noted that going forward, DAP’s stranglehold over these seats may well become weaker, due to demographic changes, and turnout and support for Harapan and DAP should decrease among non-Malay voters. - Mkini