All six conditions must be met before Malaysia can reopen

Many businesses are clamouring for an early end to the movement control order or MCO. It’s easy to understand why – they are losing much money as production is reduced or even halted while they are under pressure to maintain jobs.

However, they need to be mindful that any premature lifting of the MCO without changes in the rules of behaviour is likely to unleash a severe second round which may be much more difficult to contain.

That will mean businesses will have to shut down again and for a longer period while putting undue strain on the health system to keep the pandemic from reasserting itself and to produce the kind of health care required to keep the number of deaths down.

Under that scenario, the health and well-being of the entire population is put at major risk while the economy will plunge even more than before as sectors have to be kept closed for a longer time to check the pandemic – a double whammy that no sane person wants.

It is prudent to err on the side of caution and suffer economic consequences for a bit longer than to be pressured into a premature lifting of the MCO and risk putting both health and the economy into catastrophe which will make recovery even more difficult and cause much more agony and suffering than necessary.

A Trump-like optimism that we should get along with our lives and hope that the pandemic will just disappear into thin air just as it appeared out of thin air almost – like a miracle – is to disregard all that science and medicine has taught us and descend into folklore and misplaced, misguided, blind faith.

We have much to be thankful for – the government, despite its backdoor status, has allowed the experts to make the decisions, experts like the Health director-general, who is now coming under increasing pressure and wrongly being accused of trying to usurp the power of politicians.

Compared to Trump’s daily rants and raves, which he has threatened to stop – one wishes he would –Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah’s daily briefings are sane, sober, sensible, scientific without bluster or bravado, and easy to understand. There is no question that he leaves unanswered from the press as he remains cool and unflappable under considerable strain and stress, inducing confidence.

Noor Hisham (above) is straight forward about what is required to lift the MCO – six conditions to be fulfilled of which three have already been satisfied. The Academy of Medicine Malaysia concurs with him.

The six as per World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines are border control, movement control, readiness of the healthcare system, protection of high-risk groups, readiness of Malaysians to adapt to the new normal, and deployment of preventative measures in the community. They remain the bare bones of an exit strategy towards lifting the MCO. There are a lot of details to consider before all are satisfied.

Noor Hisham had also mentioned that Malaysia already meets the first three criteria. Border control involves stopping illegal immigrants and quarantining returning Malaysians, both of which could be possible transmission vectors. Movement control has seen a high rate of adherence among Malaysians, with an average of over 90%.

Third is that Malaysia’s healthcare system is able to stand against a further wave of the Covid-19 outbreak, with less than 2,000 active transmission cases, a rate of recovery of over 60%, and lower numbers needing intensive care and ventilator support each day.

Noor Hisham also shared that the remaining three criteria have not been met by Malaysia, and will require further action and cooperation between the people and the government, covering both the public and private sectors.

A new normal

In terms of the fourth criteria, protection of high-risk groups, little has been mentioned so far. Since Covid-19 affects much more severely the aged and those with pre-existing conditions such as heart and respiratory conditions, diabetes and stroke, there needs to be a clear strategy of insulating them against the disease for death numbers to be contained.

The fifth criteria of the readiness of Malaysians to adopt to the new norm is something which is going to be difficult to achieve in terms of education and awareness. In the absence of civic consciousness and self-policing, enforcement alone will not be able to do this.

The sixth condition is deploying preventive measures in cooperation with the community, getting the community involved in helping to prevent the spread of the virus and to keep it in check.

Detailed guidelines for a return to the workplace are necessary as well as the readiness of both employers and employees to abide by them. If, for instance, it is a crowded workplace, social distancing of a minimum one metre will be impossible to achieve unless, say only half the workforce or less, goes to work. As many people as possible still need to work from home.

Even if the MCO is lifted, they need to have all the measures in place to ensure that the public complies with good practices to prevent the spread of Covid-19. Otherwise, it will return bigger and stronger than before.

As Noor Hisham said yesterday: “At this point, there is still no vaccine. The only vaccine is to stay at home and practise social distancing, while maintaining good personal hygiene. This will be a long run.

“As long as we don’t have the vaccine, which may take a year or two, we have to take all the precautionary measures to break the chain of infection within the community,” he added.

Premature lifting of the lockdown can be disastrous. Let us spend some thought and effort into deciding what the new norm is, set clear unambiguous guidelines by professionals with no political doublespeak, announce them, and wait for feedback before implementation.

Leadeth us not into temptation like it was for some countries which did little in the beginning and even less as the pandemic spread. Instead let us be reasoned and reasonable, prepared, sober, open to suggestion and reflective first. Let’s do it in stages, watching closely and carefully how things develop. No need to rush.

Otherwise we will end up sinking both our health and the economy.

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P GUNASEGARAM is editor of Focus Malaysia. He says we can’t afford haste when there is so much to lose. - Mkini