‘NO ONE IS AFRAID OF MUHYIDDIN, EVERYONE BULLIES HIM’ – KARMA & FALSE CALM KEEP COUP PM TRAPPED: POST-PANDEMIC POLITICAL STORM BREWING TO RIP HIS FRAGILE GOVT APART – AS MUHYIDDIN BETRAYED HIS OWN PAKATAN GOVT, ALLIES HE TURNED TO FOR HELP TO GRAB THE PM POST ARE NOW WAITING TO SLIT HIS POLITICAL THROAT

TWO months after the Sheraton political coup, Muhyiddin Yassin’s government is still searching for a way forward.

Faced with the world’s worst crisis in a century, he has to win public trust, even to justify the existence of his unelected government. To a certain extent, the current movement-control order (MCO) to curb the spread of Covid-19 has afforded Muhyiddin some breathing space. But he knows the lockdown won’t last forever.

As Parliament is now set to sit on May 18, the political situation will gain more attention. Despite being the main beneficiary of the coup that propelled him to the premiership, he is not exactly the most hated figure in Malaysia. However, the rest of the cabinet is either forgotten, unknown, laughed at, or even hated.

International Trade and Industry Minister Mohamed Azmin Ali is now universally mocked for his role in the coup, and right now, disliked for his mishandling of the reopening of industries in the third phase of the MCO.

Health Minister Dr Adham Baba is the de facto laughing stock of the nation and a major liability to Muhyiddin’s administration. For each of his media appearance, the government loses three days to public ridicule.

Muhyiddin’s conundrum

Herein lies Muhyiddin’s challenge. He has to live with each and every one in his hastily cobbled coup coalition. He can’t sack anyone yet; everyone in his cabinet can easily bully him. A recent example is Umno demanding spoils for its Sabah chapter, especially to reward state chief Bung Moktar Radin, who faces corruption charges.

Muhyiddin is governing with either 113 or 114 out of 222 parliamentary seats. Although it’s a razor-thin majority, and putting aside a technical explanation of our laws, let’s just say that it’s not easy for Parliament to approve a no-confidence vote against the prime minister.

But that doesn’t mean Muhyiddin can sleep soundly at night. Whether governing with 113/114 seats, the proof is not in a “no-confidence vote”. It is in each of the bills presented to Parliament. Each bill would be an opportunity to prove that the government still commands majority support.

Let’s take Johor as an example. Its new Umno-led government claims to have 29 seats, while Pakatan Harapan has 27. The 29 include the assemblyman for Bukit Gambir, who is Muhyiddin himself. If he can’t or doesn’t attend the assembly, the state government on that day will have 28 votes against PH’s 27.

On voting day for the budget, for example, if two or three assemblymen from the state government side are not happy with the menteri besar and decide to go on medical leave, while PH has full attendance, the government could lose its budget.

Our Parliament works the same way. We can see how Umno is bullying Muhyiddin, with the prime minister not even able to take disciplinary action against cabinet members who flouted the MCO.

Muhyiddin’s fledgling coalition

Bersatu

Bersatu is formed by four groups.

First, the group that joined when the party was set up in 2016, such as Special Functions Minister Mohd Redzuan Yusof, who has no real function in Muhyiddin’s government, Malacca exco Rafiq Naizamohideen, whose dream of becoming chief minister was quashed by his new coalition partners, and former Johor menteri besar Sahruddin Jamal, who lost everything despite being a Muhyiddin loyalist.

This group braved Umno attacks from 2016 to 2018, suffered personally and financially, won the people’s mandate, and now, are lost and forgotten.

Second, the Dr Mahathir Mohamad supporters. No one knows exactly how many supporters the former prime minister has until Bersatu holds its elections. The fact that Dr Mahathir still has supporters and sympathisers in the party is sufficient to rattle Muhyiddin.

Third, the group that joined Bersatu after 2018, led by Home Minister Hamzah Zainudin, Some former Umno MPs are among them. They are handsomely rewarded in Muhyiddin’s cabinet.

Fourth, the group that benefits the most from ministerial rewards, such as Azmin’s clique who left PKR for Bersatu to bring forth the Sheraton move. Everyone gets a ministerial appointment.

Umno

Umno is not a single entity. Since the 2018 general election, no leader has had full control over the party, which is split into multiple groups.

The loudest personality is former prime minister Najib Razak. He has the biggest name recognition and support among hardcore Umno supporters, but he is toxic to middle-ground Malay voters.

And yet, Najib is a survivor. Despite the heavy corruption charges against him, he is still free to continue his role as chief troll, going after PH 70% of his time while devoting the other 30% against the Muhyiddin government.

Guided by Najib’s thinking, Umno has created a niche for itself: Umno is together with PAS in Muafakat Nasional, only supporting Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional until the coming general election.

Another group is led by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who doesn’t really have full control over the party. He is mostly with Najib, but there have been instances where they broke ranks, especially in the early weeks of February.

Hishammuddin Hussein, Hamzah and Azmin are the original coup-plotters and have been working closely together across parties for some time since early last year, if not earlier. Their common aim was, and still is, to deny Anwar Ibrahim the post of prime minister. Hishammuddin claims to control between 17 and 22 Umno MPs.

Then, there are Negri Sembilan’s Mohamad Hasan and Khairy Jamaluddin, Johor’s Mohamed Khaled Nordin and other characters who do not exactly fit into the aforementioned three groups.

PAS

PAS as a political party is solid and intact, but it severely lacks the talent for national politics.

At the moment, PAS leaders are just enjoying the spoils of office, such as being appointed to government-linked company posts while waiting for the next general election to be called. PAS’ objectives are to dominate Kelantan and Terengganu, and to make advances in Kedah and Perlis.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak

GPS controls Sarawak, and has no loyalty to anyone. Its leaders are more inclined to work with former Barisan Nasional leaders whom they know well than to make friends with PH leaders, some of whom, such as those from DAP, compete with them in Sarawak politics.

Muhyiddin’s challenge

Muhyiddin’s ruling coalition comprises four groups in Bersatu, four groups in Umno, GPS and PAS; altogether, 10 factions with varying interests, at times collaborative, at times competitive.

For the prime minister, when the Covid-19 pandemic slows down, he has to worry about Malaysia’s post-MCO era.

Whether Muhyiddin can pull through by gaining control of his competitive coalition partners, it’s just a matter of time when the economic needs of the people and nation reveal the harsh realities.

Can Muhyiddin’s fledgling ruling coalition stay together? I have my doubts.

* Liew Chin Tong is DAP political education director.

THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT