Why Sweden’s trend-bucking Covid-19 battle plan makes sense

The novel coronavirus has plunged us into a novel age – an age of mass panic, social isolation and death. Most nations of the world, including Malaysia, have decided on what the primary containment method should be: a lockdown.

However, in a world where lockdowns have become the norm, Sweden stands tall, having weathered wave after wave of criticism for its perceived lax approach to the pandemic. But Sweden has a strong case for its controversial, contrarian approach.

Resisting lockdowns, the Swedish government has instead opted to trust its citizens to “behave like adults”, advising them to avoid crowded places and to work from home as much as possible.

It has adopted a measured approach, banning gatherings of more than 50 people and closing schools for older children and universities. Schools for young children are still open, presumably because Covid-19 affects them the least. Those over 70 have been advised to stay home as they are the ones at highest risk of having severe complications.

These non-dictatorial measures have seen Sweden’s deaths recently rise past the 1,000-people mark. Its fatality rate is the highest in Scandinavia, being almost 10 times higher than that in Finland, more than four times that of Norway and twice Denmark’s.

Under intense pressure to conform to the rest of the world, the Swedish Public Health Agency’s top epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, insists Sweden’s method is a more sustainable way of dealing with the pandemic.

Fortunately for Tegnell, Sweden’s Public Health Agency is highly trusted and has a lot of autonomy. Government ministers hold little sway on the body and can get sacked if they interfere in its operations. This is obviously not the case for most countries where politicians in positions of power have the final say, irrespective of whether they have subject matter expertise.

Sweden is also a high-trust society, reporting a 67% level of trust between people and in institutions. For comparison, in the UK, trust is only at 35%.

This crucial and rare separation of powers between a scientific body and the government has given rise to what I think is a response based on facts and sound reasoning.

Sweden’s logic is simple: Like it or not, the virus is upon us and spreading like wildfire. Shutting everything down and trying to snuff it out at one go wouldn’t work as data suggests it will proliferate once restrictions are lifted. In addition, there is growing expert consensus that it might haunt us seasonally.

Hence, it’s best to slow activity down enough that the healthcare system can deal with the patient load. Allowing for slower transmission will also help the population acquire herd immunity, which happens when enough people in the community contract it and develop immunity.

This method might cause more deaths in the short-term but over a longer period of time, it will result in fewer deaths due to the preservation of jobs and businesses that are the lifeforce of a functioning society.

Scientists at Harvard recently published what I believe is support of sorts for Sweden’s school of thought. They said: “A one-time lockdown won’t halt the novel coronavirus and repeated periods of social distancing may be required into 2022 to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.”

A sustained lockdown until 2022 is entirely untenable. A periodic one might just work but will still result in severe economic and social convulsions. Sweden’s path is the way forward, but there’s a caveat – we need to do a lot more testing.

This is an area where Sweden needs to improve – and an area where we need to follow the lead of South Korea and Germany, which have some of the highest testing rates in the world. As of April 12, Germany had tested 1.6% of its population and South Korea had tested 1% of its population – which is leaps and bounds more than most other countries.

Economist and Nobel laureate Paul Romer says we need to repeatedly test everyone irrespective of whether they have symptoms or not – and they need to be tested every two weeks or so.

Those who test positive should be asked to isolate themselves and those who test negative will go about their lives as usual. This emphasis on widespread and frequent testing is a sentiment that is gaining more and more momentum among the intellectual community – and for good reason.

South Korea, which is a leader in Covid-19 containment, has managed to avoid nationwide shutdowns while ensuring its death rate is kept low, thanks in large part to widespread testing and contact tracing.

“South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. This is unlike many democratic nations, including Malaysia, which immediately resorted to autocratic lockdowns when disaster struck.

Richard Harris, CEO of Port Shelter Investment and a veteran investor, said: “Immediate mass containment became the narrative of the coronavirus outbreak; it was a communist solution with Chinese characteristics.”

He adds: “The containment policy is the perceived wisdom – and once a particular narrative takes hold, any counter-narrative is shouted down. It is foolish, heretical and unpatriotic to suggest another course of action, especially when politicians have become invested in one”.

According to the United Nations, the draconian containment efforts worldwide are set to cost trillions of dollars. Many would argue that losing trillions is, after all, in the service of saving lives.

However, that’s not necessarily true.

What we’re doing now is effectively haemorrhaging our economy to satisfy the only metric we’re keeping track of – the number of deaths due to Covid-19. The less the number, the better.

But what we’re ignoring are future deaths due to the economic and social upheaval caused by the lockdown.

Because such future deaths are difficult to quantify, we don’t pay much heed to it. But the lockdowns will deprive millions, if not billions, of their livelihood, snuff out their potential and wipe the floor with their future. - FMT