Analyst: Umno and Bersatu after same love interest, peace won't hold

 

The unilateral "ceasefire" declared by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will not hold, predicted political analyst Wong Chin Huat.

"Umno and Bersatu are rivals not just for ministership, but ultimately they are two rivals with the same love interest - Malay nationalist constituencies.

"Can two jealous suitors after the same love interest be true friends?" wrote Wong on his Facebook page today.

Wong, a political scientist, explained that Umno and Bersatu will eventually have to share viable Malay constituencies in the next general election, due to Malaysia's first-past-the-post election system.

"The core issue is whether the 15 parliamentary seats Bersatu took from Umno should be returned to Umno, and there cannot be win-win," he said.

If Umno were to have its way, Wong predicted that Bersatu will win no more than 20 seats in the next election.

Conversely, if Bersatu had its way, then Umno might lose out as what had happened during the Sabah elections.

During the 2018 elections, Umno won 17 seats in the Sabah legislative assembly. The following year, eight lawmakers defected to Bersatu.

As allies in the Sabah 2020 elections, Umno only managed to secure the rights to field candidates for two of the eight seats, winning only one.

"Umno did not sabotage Bersatu which vied for 19 seats. However, Umno had six of its 26 seats contested by Bersatu's sidekicks PBS or Star," he said.

Of the six contests which Umno had to face off against PBS or Star, Umno won only one.

Making matters worse for Umno, said Wong, the party did not manage to secure the chief ministership after the election, despite being the single party with the most seats in the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition.

Wong predicted that Umno's "ceasefire" will likely be commensurated with a cabinet reshuffle.

"Bersatu's nightmare won't end there. Umno ministers will use their positions to fill up their war chests to take on Bersatu during the next election.

"Expect the two parties' supporters to fight over GLC positions, lower-level political appointments and contracts soon," he said.

In view of this, Wong concluded that there can be no peace between two suitors of the same love interest.

"Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin is not out of the woods, neither is Malaysia out of the incessant power struggle," he said. - Mkini