Analyst predicts more Perak-like political crises

 

Perak Umno chief Saarani Mohamad was sworn in as the new menteri besar yesterday. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA: Umno leading the new Perak government may well be the start of the party’s quest to change the leadership in other states where it has more seats than PPBM, a political analyst predicts.

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said the conflicts and tension among Umno, PPBM and PAS at both state and national levels were far from over.

He said the events in Perak suggested that Umno was working towards “eventual rectification” by taking charge of states it commanded a majority in, after “subjecting itself to PPBM’s hegemony”.

“If PPBM kowtows in Perak, then other states and even at the federal level with a similar Umno-majority coalition may potentially fall into the same reversal of power.

Oh Ei Sun.

“As for PAS, it is ‘fence-sitting’ for its best interest,” he told FMT.

Umno holds 25 seats in the 59-member Perak legislative assembly, while PPBM holds five and PAS three. Gerakan has one seat and there is also an independent.

Pakatan Harapan (PH), meanwhile, commands 24 seats, through DAP (16), Amanah (five) and PKR (three).

However, former academic Azmi Hassan said with all three parties agreeing to Perak Umno chief Saarani Mohamad as the new menteri besar, Perikatan Nasional (PN) was in the clear, for now.

Azmi Hassan.

Azmi said the agreement was surprising, but also proved how PPBM and Umno were willing to compromise as they “needed each other politically”.

“Its leaders are very much aware that a wrong step in Perak will spell disaster, not only for Perak PN but also PN at the national level, which is not good for both Umno and PPBM.

“The agreement by PPBM, PAS and Umno on the menteri besar candidate demonstrates that PN both at state and federal level is at a breaking point, but all three entities are willing to do anything to preserve it.”

Syed Arabi Idid.

Another analyst, Syed Arabi Idid of the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said it was nothing out of the ordinary for Saarani to be the new menteri besar, as he was a senior politician and had grassroot support.

However, he questioned the delay by PPBM and PAS in agreeing to Saarani’s nomination, and why the three parties had not discussed the matter beforehand.

“What was the noise all about? If this is the outcome, the three parties could have discussed the issue, planned for the former menteri besar to resign, and for Saarani to take the oath of office,” he said. “It would have been more neat and more quiet.”

He added that it was likely all three parties would work together to ensure the annual budget was passed, but said issues of conflict could reappear when discussions on seat allocations for the next general election take place.

Saarani, the Kota Tampan assemblyman, was sworn in as the new menteri besar yesterday after PPBM deputy president Ahmad Faizal Azumu lost the confidence of the state assembly in a vote last week. - FMT