KINIGUIDE | Political change is underway in Perak following the ouster of Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu.
The situation is very fluid at the moment, but here's what we know so far, and what the possibilities are in the coming days.
What happened?
On Friday morning, the Perak State Legislative Assembly voted 48-10 against Faizal during a motion of confidence.
The vote had been fast-tracked after emergency motions by Umno and DAP were accepted by the legislature's speaker.
Faizal acknowledged the vote and promised a smooth transition.
Why did it happen?
Faizal said he did not see it coming.
However, Padang Rengas Umno chief Nazri Abdul Aziz told Malaysiakini that Perak Umno had been unhappy with Faizal for the last two months.
"The final straw was Faizal's appointment of (Umno's Pengkalan Hulu assemblyperson) Aznel Ibrahim as his political secretary (in October), without consulting us," Nazri said.
What happens next?
Faizal has given his assurance that he will not seek to dissolve the State Assembly and call for a snap election.
This means that a new state government has to be formed.
Umno, which has the most seats in Perak, is already making moves to nominate a menteri besar.
Who will Umno form a government with?
Forming the new Perak government will require the control of 30 seats in the State Assembly.
Umno has 25 seats.
PAS - which has 3 seats - has decided not to join in efforts to form the next state government. PAS had supported Faizal to stay on as menteri besar.
This means Umno must get support from Bersatu and its six assemblypersons to form the next government.
Faizal has said that Bersatu is slighted by his ouster, but that efforts must be made to reconcile and form a new government.
What if Bersatu doesn't support Umno?
If Umno doesn't get Bersatu's backing, this means the party must try to cobble up support from Pakatan Harapan.
DAP has 16 assemblypersons, Amanah (5) and PKR (3).
Malaysiakini understands that the situation is very fluid at the moment and that all cards are on the table.
There is even talk about a possible "unity government".
Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the simplest way out is for Umno and DAP to have a Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA) with power-sharing through legislative reforms.
"Yes, CSA is basically power-sharing through the State Assembly instead of state cabinet," Wong said in a Facebook post.
What if no one has a majority?
If Umno, or any other party, is unable to secure majority support, then there are two possible options.
The first is a minority government.
DAP's Tebing Tinggi assemblyperson Abdul Aziz Bari said that while there is no specific provision in the Perak State Constitution for this, the sultan does have the prerogative to form a minority government.
"That’s (possible) when such is the only option left, but as of now I don't think we have reached that stage," Aziz told Malaysiakini.
If a minority government is not formed, then the only option left is to dissolve the State Assembly and call for a snap election.
What impact will this have at the federal level?
Nazri said the ouster of Faizal does not reflect Umno's ties with Bersatu.
"This is not a matter of us being angry with Bersatu, but we (Umno Perak) are angry with an individual... who failed to perform as menteri besar.
"This was not an Umno decision, but a decision of Umno assemblypersons," he said.
Nazri added that Umno MPs have no problems with Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, and has assured that they would support him if there was a vote of confidence.
This KiniGuide was prepared by Zikri Kamarulzaman
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