Umno, allies must work together to recover lost Malay votes

 

From Ibrahim M Ahmad

Another comfortable win by Perikatan Nasional in a northern constituency on Wednesday should be cause for concern for the Pakatan Harapan coalition and for Umno.

The parliamentary election in Padang Serai, where the Malay community makes up 62% of the electorate, was effectively a straight fight between PKR and Bersatu for the Malay vote. It was a contest PKR was never going to win.

As expected, Bersatu’s Azman Nasrudin came out tops, claiming a resounding 16,250 majority over PKR’s Sofee Razak. Azman pulled 56.49% of the vote share, while Sofee drew 38.70%.

With turnout at 69%, the inescapable conclusion is that the local Malay community had voted en bloc in favour of PN.

Voting pattern

That outcome is consistent with the voting pattern seen across the north of the country in the parliamentary general election.

Led by PAS, PN swept the board clean in Kelantan (14 seats), Terengganu (8) and Perlis (3). It also won 14 seats in Kedah, just one short of the full complement on offer.

Premised on that, PAS election director Sanusi Md Nor’s prediction that PN will win all 36 state assembly seats next is by no means an idle boast.

PN has also made massive inroads in other peninsular states. The coalition won three of six parliamentary seats in Melaka (50%), seven of 15 in Pahang (47%), 10 of 24 in Perak (42%) and six of 16 in Selangor (38%).

It has even taken three mainland seats of the 16 seats on offer in Penang (19%) even relieving the Anwar family of its stranglehold on Permatang Pauh, a constituency where 73% are Malays.

Only Negeri Sembilan (0 from 8), Johor (2 from 25 or 8%) and the Federal Territories (2 from 13 or 15%) remain out of PN’s grasp – for the time being, at least.

Facing the hard truths

The results can be explained in several ways.

Without question, it shows that the Malay populace has increasingly rejected Umno in favour of PN, where PAS – having won 49 of the coalition’s 74 seats – has a dominant influence.

In doing so, voters are also rejecting a moderate form of Islam championed by Umno in favour of a more right-wing brand of religion, stoking fears of the country leaning more and more towards a theocracy.

That Umno has lost ground in the Malay heartland is much spoken of, and widely accepted.

Lulled into a fall sense of complacency after doing well at the state elections in Melaka and Johor, party members placed too much belief in its own shallow rhetoric, completely misread voter sentiment across the country and prematurely wrote off PAS’ influence up north.

Less heard of, however, are two other truths.

Firstly, the PH coalition – where the Malay community is represented both by PKR and Amanah – has not been able to win over the bulk of the Malay vote.

PKR appears hampered by its multi-racial composition, while Amanah, a PAS breakaway formed seven years ago, has failed to expand beyond its small support base.

The other truth is that, for whatever reason, Anwar Ibrahim himself cannot draw the Malays back in.

Many will argue that PKR’s multi-racial composition makes it the ideal template for political parties moving forward. However, the GE15 results clearly show it is not a vehicle suited to the reality of Malaysian politics.

With race and religion more prominent on the national political landscape now than at any time previously, something more radical is needed to preserve Malaysia’s moderate leanings, which are key to its economic recovery and allaying fears among non-Muslims of a dilution of their rights.

The present unity government may be an effective stop gap remedy to ward off the advances of PN and its brand of divisive politics, but it surely is not the longer-term solution.

Drastic changes needed

Anwar, PH and Umno must accept that drastic changes are required to win back the crucial Malay vote.

Those changes must start with the formation of a new coalition in which Umno, which reportedly boasts over three million members, plays the lead role of recovering lost Malay support.

For any such alliance to succeed, long-held prejudices between Umno and PH component parties, PKR, DAP and Amanah, must be cast aside once and for all.

Umno, for its part, must stop pretending it is the same glorious party which led this country to independence.

It is now tainted by a deeply entrenched perception among the populace that its leaders are a bunch of hopelessly corrupt and wholly incompetent politicians.

Bersatu and PAS took full advantage of that perception to make inroads into Umno’s support while tightening their grip on their own support base.

The party needs to rid itself of these perceptions once and for all.

For that, Umno needs a complete overhaul of its leadership. Leaders widely perceived as tainted, including president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and members of the “court cluster”, must make way for a new and competent leadership.

Zahid may feel hard done by, having performed admirably to keep the party intact over the last four years despite facing huge challenges both from within the party and personally.

He and many among the current leadership must, however, accept that leading Umno’s recovery is a task for its next leader, and gracefully step aside.

The new leaders

Umno has many within its ranks it can call upon, with former second finance minister Johari Ghani at the forefront.

The only Umno candidate to win in the highly urban Klang Valley, Johari can put his strong business acumen to great use by showing how Umno and the government can uplift both the urban and rural poor, among whom many Malay voters still languish.

Khairy Jamaluddin may have lost the Sungai Buloh seat, but many believe he was deliberately hung out to dry.

In fact, he can be proud of his electoral performance, reducing PKR’s 26,634 majority in 2018 to a mere 2,693 votes, even in the face of a 67,383 jump in the constituency’s electorate.

Widely hailed for his performance, first as vaccination coordination minister and later as health minister, Khairy is seen as highly competent and has many admirers among the public at large.

Other worthy candidates include current minister Azalina Othman Said, youth vice-chief Shahril Hamdan and party information chief Isham Jalil.

The time has come for these personalities and many talented leaders at the division level to set aside their differences and work together towards a common party and national purpose.

Realities PM must accept

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim must himself accept certain realities.

He needs no reminding that he walks a tightrope trying to balance delivering on his Malay agenda while keeping his well-defined non-Malay support happy.

Anwar must accept that, within his unity government, only Umno has the capacity to recover lost Malay votes. That being the case, he must play his part in the party’s rejuvenation process.

The prime minister must give Umno more prominence in the Cabinet so that the party’s representatives in government can project their capabilities and offer real solutions to win back the confidence of the general public, especially the Malay community.

Thus far, Umno appointees have been given largely subdued roles in government. Anwar must offer the party’s representatives leading roles so that it can better penetrate the Malay heartland.

Ultimately, rebuilding Malaysia involves winning back the Malay vote. That is a task which only Umno can carry out. However, the party will not achieve anything in its present form.

Umno and its newfound PH allies have plenty of work to do to ensure the survival of the unity government, while rebuilding the trust of the Malays, whose support they have taken for granted for far too long. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT