Going solo in GE16 not a winning strategy for Kedah Umno, says analyst

Mazlan Ali says that without cooperation with others, including PH, the chances of Umno-BN wresting control of the state from PN are slim to none.

On Monday, Kedah Umno information chief Shaiful Hazizy Zainol Abidin urged the party’s central leadership to grant the state chapter the autonomy to decide whether to work with other parties or contest independently in GE16. (Facebook pic)

PETALING JAYA:

 An analyst has poured cold water on calls by Kedah Umno for the autonomy to contest the 16th general election (GE16) on its own, saying this would set the state chapter up for an uphill battle to wrest the state from Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said such calls might stem from a desire to avoid being constrained in seat negotiations and the choice of a menteri besar candidate.

However, without cooperation – including with Pakatan Harapan (PH) – the chances of wresting control of the state from PN would be slim to none, he said.

He said Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) were at their weakest point in the northern state, with no parliamentary or state assembly seats.

Mazlan Ali.

“There was some increase in support (for Umno-BN) after the 15th general election and the 2023 state polls, but it is still insufficient to take Kedah. Going solo therefore has many drawbacks.

“But if there is cooperation with PH in certain seats, PH votes could be channelled to BN and vice versa. That would be better than going it alone, unless Umno is confident it has the strength to rival PAS and PN in Kedah,” he told FMT.

On Monday, Kedah Umno information chief Shaiful Hazizy Zainol Abidin urged the party’s central leadership to grant the state chapter the autonomy to decide whether to work with other parties or contest independently in GE16.

He claimed that cooperation with PH was virtually non-existent, alleging attempts to sideline Umno but also ruling out any willingness to work with PAS.

In the 2023 state election, the BN-PH alliance won only three seats, with PKR securing two state constituencies (Bakar Arang and Sidam) and DAP one (Kota Darul Aman).

PN, led by PAS, swept 33 seats, enabling Sanusi Nor to continue as menteri besar for a second term.

Mazlan said one of Umno’s key challenges if it were to go solo would be winning back members who supported PN in the previous election due to dissatisfaction over its cooperation with PH.

“Secondly, it would need to win over fence-sitters – voters who we can say do not support Umno,” he added.

Azmi Hassan.

Meanwhile, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said even if autonomy were granted, it would likely be partial as the final decision would rest with Umno’s central leadership, as is the case in Sabah.

“State Umno can make decisions, but the final say comes from the top leadership to ensure continuity and avoid disorder,” he said, adding that it would nonetheless be difficult at present to counter the influence of Sanusi and PAS in Kedah.

Azmi also said any form of cooperation would depend on state-by-state strategies, as political dynamics differ.

“A single strategy cannot be applied across the entire peninsula or even Sabah, because the political landscape varies,” he said. - FMT