Behind the early general elections rhetoric

Najib and the wily Mahathir

Wong Choon Mei, Malaysia Chronicle

Whatever his motives, Prime Minister Najib Razak is obviously keen to let it be known that he intends to call for general elections soon, but former premier Mahathir Mohamad does not seem to believe him and has unceremoniously rained on his parade.

“I don’t think that it will be held soon. There is still time,” Bernama had reported Mahathir as saying at the close of the Umno general assembly.

And at 85 years of age, the wily Mahathir is still regarded as having more political savvy in his little finger than Najib, who comes across as much less alert or sharp despite being nearly 30 years younger.

At the 61st Umno assembly, Najib had exhorted members to prepare for snap polls but refused to commit himself to reporters who later asked for clues on when that was likely to happen.

“Though they can interpret in so many ways, it is important for us to meet the people. As I said, it can be interpreted in so many ways but I have my sequence of doing things,” Malaysian Insider reported him as saying.

His deputy Muhyiddin Yassin had been more precise, telling the Umno delegates in his winding-up speech on Saturday that the 13th general election may take place within a few months.

“I don’t know when the prime minister will call for the next general election, but we all know that there are only a few months left,” said Muhyiddin.

Lack of leadership in BN, still in disarray

Muhyiddin - within months

So which is it to be? Early or late? And when will it be? In the first half of 2011 simultaneously with the Sarawak state election, in the second half of 2011 if the Sarawak results are BN-favorable, or in 2012 as many pundits still believe?

"We have to get ready and brace ourselves for every possibility especially when you have the PM and DPM telling Umno delegates to prepare. To ignore would only create risks for Pakatan, which we obviously cannot take. So we have to get ready – take it as though it is early 2011, then late 2011 and if that doesn’t happen 2012. But personally, I still think Najib will delay to the very last minute,” Bukit Gantang MP Nizar Jamaluddin told Malaysia Chronicle.

Malaysia last held general elections in March 2008 and the latest date for the next polls is within the first half of 2013. As for Sarawak, the state election must be held before July 2011.

Among reasons why pundits think that GE is still a long way off and Najib was only trying to boost his personal popularity with election talk are his lack of concrete achievements since taking power in April 2009, the disarray within the BN due to his inability to chart a clear course of strategic reforms, and the growing distrust the people feel for him due his doublespeak.

Some Umno watchers also believe Najib would use the timing of the GE to cling to power in Umno. They believe Najib will try to postpone the Umno internal election due next year, which means the GE will announced either in late 2011 or 2012.

“This also gives him time to assess the results of the Sarawak election, put Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and those dissidents who get in his way behind bars first,” the Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.

Return to a hardline regime

Other pundits also point to his extremist opening speech at the Umno assembly which had turned off many Malaysians, who condemned him for warning of 'crushed bodies’, ‘lost lives’ and even ‘ethnic cleansing’ if he and his party failed to retain control of the federal government.

Anwar - whom Najib fears the most after Mahathir

They feared that Najib may be returning to his racist roots and his comments signaled the end of moderate Malaysia and the return to a hardline regime.

In 1987, Najib as the Umno Youth chief had personally made several inflammatory speeches that led to a swelling of racial tensions, creating the opportunity for Mahathir to launch a crackdown codenamed Operations Lalang on scores of opposition politicians, writers and dissidents.

“It will take a long while before Najib can hope to regain the non-Malays’ trust, if ever. He obviously believed he needed to switch from moderate to ultra-Malay ground in order to pull away the Malay votes from PAS and PKR," PKR strategic director Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle. .

"He says one thing to the Chinese, the Indians and the other minorities but another to Umno. This is not only unprincipled and unacceptable but also very outmoded and will work against him.”