March 6 will be the day for the Merlimau and Kerdau by-election. Incidentally, this date also happens to be two days shy of the third anniversary of the historic 2008 General Election (GE) which saw a political tsunami where Barisan Nasional (BN) lost their two-third majority in Parliament. Out of many by-elections after the 2008, I would say that the outcome of these two by-elections will signal how the political landscape in Malaysia has shifted under the Najib Razak’s administration.
For the Merlimau by-election, BN is represented by Jasin Umno Division committee member Roslan Ahmad, 44, while PAS candidate is Melaka PAS Youth deputy head Yuhaizad Abdullah, 38. Meanwhile, the contest in Kerdau will also be another straight fight between BN and PAS where Kuala Krau Umno Division vice-head Syed Ibrahim Syed Ahmad will be going against PAS Pahang information chief, Hassanuddin Salim.
From what I see, the outcome for both by-elections is very predictable. Almost everyone who’s been following says that the outcome of these two simultaneous by-elections is going to favor BN. Many even predicted that PAS was going to pull out from the Merlimau contest before the nomination day. In fact, many of BN leaders are not only targeting to win, but win by bigger majority in these two obvious Umno strongholds.
Before these two by-elections, BN has had been on a winning streak. And if they manage to win Merlimau and Kerdau, it will further raise their momentum towards the big GE13. Or, in other words, it will give the ruling coalition the much needed boost of confidence after the humiliating results they suffered in 2008.
I personally think that Merlimau would not be much of a headache for BN. This is due to Umno’s strength in Melaka. Since Independence, Umno has not lost a single seat they had contested in the state. That’s enough to show how strong Umno’s influence is in Melaka. Plus, based from responses I got from the Merlimau voters a day after the nomination day, most of them openlyexpressed their satisfaction towards the state government. One local, Haji Abdul Rahman Gombak, 80, said he is proud of the developments in Merlimau and hopes that, with the election of a new representative, it will continue that way.
“Things are going well here. Based on my observations, just within two to three years, the infrastructures have been good,” he said.
Another local, technical manager Zaidi Ismail, 44, is of the same opinion with Abdul Rahman.
“Infrastructure here is getting better. However, I think there is one thing that the authorities need to reconsider and that is the market situation. What I can see is that the location of the market is not so good as it causes road congestions,” said Zaidi.
His wife, Haslina Alimon, 45, said the infrastructure that has been provided around Merlimau has brought benefits to Merlimau people.
“Once there were no hospitals around here, only clinics. When people get seriously sick they had to go to the general hospital or Jasin Hospital. But now there are Klinik Kesihatan Merlimau,” said Haslina.
Kerdau, on the other hand, is in the Prime Minister’s home state. Plus, with 88 percent voters are Malays, it will surely be no problem for BN to gain support. We have to agree that in the two years under Najib’s administration, all his efforts to make BN popular again is noticeable everywhere he goes. Also, the fact that PAS has failed in championing the Malay interest (latest in Tenang) will surely benefit BN.
Besides these, PAS themselves is not confident enough to face these by-elections and made an open statement that are going to lose. To them, these by-elections are like a training ground for them before they compete in the GE13. Considering all these factors that are unfavorable to PAS, I see no reason why the voters in Merlimau and Kerdau would swing to PAS. - Malaysia Digest |
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