Bersih: Success! Success! Yes, Of Course…

by shuzheng

Malaysiakini Drops the Magical Number – 50,000

In Malaysiakini, Kuek Ser Kuang Keng wrote this:

Bersih 2.0 has hailed its rally as a victory for the movement and the people of Malaysia, claiming that up to 50,000 people had participated, supporting its cause for clean and fair elections.

The two relevant points: (a) Bersih is a success – why would Ambiga say otherwise? and, (b) turnout was 50,000.

The first is a matter of opinion, so Kuek Ser could get away with writing and attributing anything. But the second, 50,000? That is a matter of objective fact. So why should the reporter and his ‘independent’ newspaper take Bersih’s word for it? And where did they get that number? Did Kuek Ser verify? Does he know how to count? Did he count? How?

Reporters lie routinely. For crowd size, the lying is that much easier because who’s going to verify, so that the bigger the number the better it would be to serve the news.

There is however a number of ways to see if Kuek Ser lied. But, before that, go back to Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt.

How many at Tahrir Square?

The photo above is a Google satellite image. Below, is a close-up section. Looking at those aerial photos, they appear as if Egypt’s entire population was at Tahrir Square.

With their proclivity to either lie or exaggerate, reporters soon came up with conflicting numbers for Tahrir Square. Washington Post said tens of thousands, BBC said a 100,000, and Al-Jazeera, best of all, resorted to the magical phrase ‘up to’ 2 million, never mind the square has only a carrying capacity of 220,000. How many exactly were at the square?

Using spatial density count and Google satellite imagery, Wired magazine reported 76,091 at 1 person for every 5 sq ft of space. Or, if you want to, push the density to 1 person for every 2.5 sq ft (or 4 persons per sq metre), although this is unlikely because it would mean hours under the sun and rain crammed like sardines in a LRT carriage during rush hour. Still, at 2.5 sq ft, the crowd number would rise to 150,183 people, certainly not 200,000, or hundreds of thousands or 2 million.

Now for KL: How many on July 9, 2011

Malaysiakini used the two frames (above and below) taken in Puduraya-Menara Maybank for their news, after which it announced there were 10,000 in that area alone. Thereupon, Kuek Ser went on to proclaim there were 50,000 in total attendance in KL for Bersih, mostly congregated in five centres with Pudu having the largest crowd. Were there 10,000 at Pudu? Were there 40,000 in all the other centres of congregation?

You can actually verify the numbers quite readily. Take that frame above as a spatial unit in a grid. Every 5 sq ft takes in 1 head or, for easier computing, the equivalent of 4 persons to every sq metre space.

How many people would you say are in that single frame? It can’t be 1,000. But 200? 500? It measures roughly 12 persons by 30 columns, giving a density of 400, tops, in an area roughly of 1,600 sq metres (or 40m x 40m). This dimension is plausible because a three-lane dual carriageway road is about 40m across, counting in road shoulders and divider.

Take that single unit spatial density of 400. How far, that is, how many photo frames, would it line up along Pudu Road so as to produce 10,000 people? Answer: 25, giving a total distance of 1km. Now, look at the photo below. Did that crowd spread out with the same spatial density for a distance of 1km?

The answer is easier than you think: Where the crowd fronts the FRU line is the Plaza Rakyat LRT station. The next station backwards of the crowd, or going forward of the FRU line, is Masjid Jamek, half a km away. Puduraya is in between. If that crowd had stretch as far back as Puduraya, the distance is about 200 metres, to Maybank HQ 300 metres. Even to stretch it as far backwards as Masjid Jamek, the crowd without any break in the spatial density is no more than 5,000.

Kuek Ser didn’t merely end with the lie of 10,000 at Puduraya. He repeated it five times over by assuming each of the four remaining Bersih centres of congregation has about 10,000 on average even though the actual count in Puduraya is likely to be no more than half of the claimed number. Looking at the photos of the pockets of crowd in Petaling Street, Sogo and the rest, the total marchers in KL would tally up to a grand number of 10,000, maybe 12,000, stretch it 15,000 max.

Malaysiakini lying by grossly inflating the crowd size on behalf of Bersih is no more an issue of journalism ethics. Taking sides, to Steven Gan and otherMalaysiakini editors, is itself ethical, especially since this is a fight between good and evil. The question left to be answered is, to serve what purpose?

This isn’t a terribly difficult question also. The first Bersih sponsored rally was said to be about 30,000 or 40,000. For any number that’s fewer than 2007′s, how is Ambiga to declare Bersih a ‘success’?

Then there is the issue of credibility. Berish’s NGO in themselves don’t have numbers for the reason these are not mass movement parties. Persons like Wong Chin Huat or Ambiga are useful as fronts so that, in the end, they must fall back on their sponsors, the politicians and political parties, to pull off a respectable rally. Recall that PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu promised at the party’s general assembly in June 100,000 for Bersih.

Begin with the PAS membership roll, then add the numbers from the PKR and DAP. In aggregate, Pakatan’s people (assuming their membership roll claims are true) ought to total 500,000 in long-standing, actual dues-paying members. Add sympathizers and those with membership fees still outstanding you might get 1 million.

Even to inflate to 50,000 marchers in KL, that figure is a pathetic 5pct of Pakatan’s nationwide members and sympathizers all counted in. Imagine then if Bersih’s people say 10,000 showed up….? That’s only 2pct of Pakatan’s overall membership. All this means that relatively few people give a toss for Anwar Ibrahim or Lim Kit Siang or Hadi Awang. Mat Sabu’s promise of 100,000 was never his to keep.

Yet, if you read Malaysiakini or Malaysia Today, they write as if the country has gone belly up under a tsunami of marchers.

Bersih, a success? Yes, of course, if you say so. Anyway, there’s alwaysMalaysiakini and Kuek Ser to help you proclaim the truth. Wait now for other reporters (AFP, Reuters, AP) to repeat after the truth of the lie – 50,000. Success!