Crackdown may rekindle 2008 political mood

The crackdown on Bersih supporters and organisers may fuel the people's anger against the government, say analysts.

KUALA LUMPUR: The government crackdown on supporters and organisers of the Berjaya mass rally may just fuel Pakatan Rakyat’s ambition to lay siege to Putrajaya, analysts said today.

They drew comparison with the events leading to the 2008 “political tsunami” such as the first Bersih rally and the Hindu Rights Action Force protest that eventually led to the opposition making significant electoral gains.

The Barisan Nasional (BN) lost its parliamentary two-thirds majority while five states, including known BN fortresses, fell under opposition control.

With the 13th national polls looming, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim said that a 5% vote swing is enough to knock its rivals off the perch.

UCSI lecturer on public policies, Dr Ong Kian Ming, believes that a clampdown on the July 9 “Walk for Freedom” would be turning point for the federal opposition.

“It is possible this may happen (vote swing to the opposition),” he told FMT.

“No one can tell how repressive the measures will be like from now until June 9. The more repressive they are, the more the voters (will come to oppose the government),” he added.

More than 100 people have been detained, mostly for wearing yellow T- shirts with the word “Bersih” written on them.

Opposition leaders, some of whom have been hauled up for questioning for backing Bersih’s planned rally, say the mass arrests is one of the harshest crackdowns in the country’s political history.

But they believe the police action will only help strengthen public support for the opposition.

A major obstacle

But political analyst Prof Sivamuragam Pandian said that Pakatan leaders know that 5% is a big number and can only come from a swing in rural Malay votes.

This remains one of the major obstacles to achieving this goal, he said.

“You can count on the urban Malay votes but not the support of the rural voters,” Sivamurugam of Universiti Sains Malaysia told FMT.

While he believes the crackdown will have an impact on the government, it will not be enough to usher in a new government.

Sivamurugam also believes that the 2008 “tsunami” mood is over, saying much of Pakatan’s electoral gains then were merely the result of internal strife within Umno and not due to a shift in voting mood.

Polling data from more than a dozen by-elections held since 2008 showed significant return of the Malay and Indian votes towards BN while Pakatan enjoyed strong support from the Chinese.

This is a setback for the opposition and Bersih will not help change it, said Sivamarugam.

Another political analyst, Prof Dr Abdul Aziz Bari, however, believes that with inflationary pressure and a weak economy, the crackdown on Bersih activists and opposition leaders will only create an ideal condition for a revolt.

He said that a 5% vote swing is more than possible under these circumstances.

Aziz, a professor in political science at UIA (Universiti Islam Antarabangsa), also drew comparisons with the pre-2008 mood.

Many of the economic woes then are also present today and should the Bersih rally muster more numbers than it did in the first one, it could well be a form of referendum on the Najib administration and a glimpse of what is to come.

“I don’t think this (Bersih rally) is a one-off thing. I believe the voters now are more assertive… the crackdown on Bersih is a sign that BN is very worried,” he said when commenting on Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s declaration that the rally will not threaten BN’s grip on power.

All the analysts agree that the more repressive the government is in the run-up to the rally, the more likely it will dampen efforts to win back public support.