WIKILEAKS: PM ABDULLAH'S POSITION ERODED AFTER TUMULTUOUS WEEK

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim dispatched his lieutenants to Taiwan with the avowed aim to complete talks with BN members of Parliament who would crossover to bring down Abdullah's government. At the same time, the Opposition alliance stated the September 16 deadline to topple the government could slip.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000805

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018

TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, MARR, MY

SUBJECT: PM ABDULLAH'S POSITION ERODED AFTER TUMULTUOUS WEEK

REF: KUALA LUMPUR 787

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY

1. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has seen his political position eroded during a tumultuous week of mounting challenges from within his United Malay National Organization (UMNO), his coalition partners, and the opposition.

While struggling to regain cohesion within his National Front (BN) coalition in the face of inter-racial tensions, UMNO leaders have raised new questions over Abdullah's 2010 transition to his deputy Najib Tun Razak, creating fresh doubts that Abdullah can gain his party's reelection in December.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim dispatched his lieutenants to Taiwan with the avowed aim to complete talks with BN members of Parliament who would crossover to bring down Abdullah's government. At the same time, the Opposition alliance stated the September 16 deadline to topple the government could slip.

The chief of the armed forces clarified that the military would remain apolitical, but could be called out via proper legal channels to assist with internal security. Abdullah emerged from an UMNO meeting to state that the government could use the Internal Security Act (ISA), and its detention without trial provisions, to preserve internal security; on September 12 the government made good on this threat by detaining controversial blogger Raja Petra. End Summary.

RACIST COMMENTS PROMPT UMNO LEADERS MEETING

2. (SBU) To quell growing animosity and tension between UMNO and its ethnic Chinese partners in the National Front coalition resulting from caustic racist comments from Penang UMNO division leader Ahmad Ismail, PM Abdullah was forced to hold a meeting of the BN Supreme Council on September 9 and a gathering of the UMNO Supreme Council on September 10.

The BN leaders referred the matter to UMNO to take action against its own member. After a three hour meeting, the UMNO Supreme Council decided to suspend Ahmad from the party for three years, stripping him of all of his official duties. Despite this ruling, Ahmad remained defiant and suggested his Penang division quickly would create a new role for him. Some of Abdullah's detractors in the party, like Selangor warlord Khir Toyo, came to Ahmad's defense. The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Chinese-dominated Gerakan party voiced their appreciation for UMNO's decision, but also called for a stop to further racially incendiary remarks.

2010 TRANSITION UNRAVELING?

3. (C) As Abdullah and UMNO attempted to douse heated racial tensions that damaged the BN coalition, this week also witnessed the fraying of UMNO's acquiescence to Abdullah's plan to hand over power to DPM Najib in 2010.

The most direct blow came from International Trade and Industry Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, an UMNO Vice President who is considered a potential candidate for Deputy Prime Minister should Abdullah step down. Muhyiddin stated on September 10 that Abdullah should resign well before the June 2010 transition date.

Muhyiddin noted that the initial promise of this two-month old proposal, meant to assuage concerns about Abdullah's sagging popularity and party support, had now "sunk away". Reacting during a televised press encounter, Abdullah was visibly angered by Muhyiddin's comment. Abdullah questioned why Muhyiddin would challenge the transition plan when the UMNO Supreme Council had already approved the transition and its timing.

On September 12, Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak appeared to contradict Abdullah and shift his position away from Abdullah's deal, stating that delegates at the December UMNO party elections should approve the transition and its timetable. Other important UMNO leaders have revived their calls to eliminate high quotas for the number of nominations needed to contest leadership positions in the party polls, a system which now heavily favors Abdullah.

MAHATHIR SEEKS RETURN TO UMNO

4. (SBU) Complicating matters further for Abdullah, former PM and former UMNO President Mahathir, who quit UMNO on May 19 after expressing disgust with Abdullah's leadership, is considering returning to the party.

A smiling UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin told reporters September 9 that Mahathir was persuaded by him, Tengku Razaleigh and several other veteran UMNO leaders at a private meeting at Mahathir's residence on September 6 to rejoin UMNO to help "fix the problems" afflicting the party.

Foreign Minister and senior UMNO official Rais Yatim later joined other party leaders in welcoming Mahathir's proposed return to the fold. Mahathir reportedly is now backing his former nemesis, Tengku Razaleigh, to unseat Abdullah in the December UMNO party elections.

Commenting tersely on the possible return of Mahathir, whose harsh criticisms of the Prime Minister continue unabated, Abdullah stated September 11 that the UMNO Supreme Council will decide on the issue as "this is a party matter."

THE OPPOSITION ATTEMPTS TO COUNTER TAIWAN PLOY...

5. (SBU) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim meanwhile sought to keep the pressure on UMNO and BN by dispatching four senior officials from this Peoples Justice Party's (PKR) to Taiwan, supposedly to meet with BN MP's who may crossover to bring down Abdullah's government.

BN had hastily arranged a "study tour" to Taiwan for BN members of Parliament, September 8-17, in what is widely viewed as a ploy to thwart September 16 crossovers.

PKR said their officials would attempt to finalize the crossovers (the opposition requires 30 to claim the majority and topple Abdullah's government).

OPPOSITION ADMITS SEPTEMBER 16 COULD SLIP

6. (SBU) As PKR announced its officials were going to Taiwan to finalize crossovers, the opposition People's Alliance (Pakatan) also issued a statement suggesting that the September 16 deadline for toppling BN could slip. The three-party alliance of PKR, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), in a September 11 release, explained that the September 16 deadline may have to be postponed due to the Taiwan trip by the BN MPs.

However, the coalition expressed confidence that a change of federal government "would happen soon."

Subsequently, BN officials announced that many of the MPs would be returning early from Taiwan, hinting that this should eliminate excuses for Anwar not meeting his September 16 deadline.

ARMED FORCES TO STAY OUT OF POLITICS, BUT STILL ON CALL

7. (SBU) Malaysian Armed Forces Chief General Abdul Aziz Zainal stated at a press conference September 11 that the armed forces have been and will remain apolitical. The General gave his assurance following questions and criticism from opposition and civil society quarters over his statement on September 9, urging the government to take stern action against anyone stoking racial sentiments in the country and thereby threatening national unity.

"The armed forces are highly professional and apolitical", Abdul Aziz clarified on September 11, and would only get involved in internal matters if requested through the legal process by the authorities or police.

He explained, "Our (the military's) secondary role is to support the police and government agencies in any form of operations where our presence is requested -- such as for internal security, humanitarian and disaster relief operations.8 General Abdul Aziz refused to comment when asked by reporters whether he would support a new government, adding "I do not know of any (impending) changes in government."

ABDULLAH THREATENS USE OF THE INTERNAL SECURITY ACT

8. (SBU) PM Abdullah stated September 10, following the UMNO Supreme Council meeting, that he did not rule out the possibility of invoking the Internal Security Act (ISA), which allows detention without trial for those who threaten national security. He added that the Home Minister, who has the authority to approve ISA detentions, would "think twice or even three times" before deciding to take that step, but "if the minister thinks that it is an appropriate action to be taken, then he will take it."

9. (SBU) The Prime Minister said that in the September 10 Cabinet meeting, his Ministers expressed concern and described race relations in the country as showing "not so good signs," and that a number of sensitive issues which were not openly discussed before were being raised.

Although the government has managed to control the situation thus far, he added that "we cannot allow a fiery situation to prevail as it could jeopardize the peace and security of our country."

Responding to a question on whether the government would curtail freedom of speech in the country, the PM explained that there was no such thing as absolute freedom anywhere in the world, noting "People cannot just say whatever they like, in the name of free speech, to the extend that it can offend and hurt others and jeopardize security."

MAKING GOOD ON THE THREAT

10. (SBU) Abdullah's government made good on the threat by arresting controversial blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin at his home on September 12, using the ISA. Home Minister Syed Hamid confirmed to reporters that police had detained Raja Petra under the ISA provision for persons who pose threats to "security, peace and public order."

Raja Petra has repeatedly enraged the BN government by, among other things, blunting attacking senior political leaders, connecting DPM Najib to a murder scandal, and condemning the sodomy allegations against Anwar.

Raja Petra currently faces sedition and defamation charges. Septel provides more details of the arrest and provides suggested press guidance.

COMMENT

11. (C) Abdullah has endured a rough week, one that has eroded his political strength. The current tone of the direct and indirect challenges to his position are similar to those he faced in the first six weeks after the March 8 election debacle when his continuation in office was an open question. Two factors are increasing the pressure on Abdullah at this point.

First, UMNO has become unnerved in the face of Anwar Ibrahim's threat to bring down the government this month, and the greater Anwar's menace, the more UMNO elites consider replacing Abdullah with a stronger figure.

Second, the UMNO divisional elections, which select delegates to the December party polls, begin on October 9 almost immediately following the Muslim holidays at the end of the Muslim fasting month. Those leaders who wish to challenge Abdullah's reelection and his two-year transition to Najib must stake out their positions now and maneuver for support, or the opportunity quickly will be lost.

KEITH