Scenario One

What a lot of Malaysians do not realize is that PAS is capable of [implementing hudud] even if they do not possess the majority of parliamentary seats within the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, should PR gain sufficient seats to form the next government.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER 

Hakim Joe

More than 24 hours have gone by and yet there are no reactions from the top PAS brass. Did anyone expect otherwise?

Tok Guru is now caught between a rock and a hard place. He is incapable of reprimanding PAS Ulama chief Harun Taib for stating that PAS will implement hudud should they garner the majority of parliamentary seats within the Pakatan Rakyat coalition in the event that Pakatan wins the next GE as the implementation of hudud law has always been on the PAS agenda. What Tok Guru could probably do is to sack Harun Taib for his comments that PAS will join forces with any political party or parties to achieve their aim.

However, this is not the case as sufficient time has passed without any statement from PAS and one could take this deafening silence to assume that what Harun Taib stated is exactly what it is i.e. PAS will collaborate with any party in order to accomplish their goal of implementing hudud law in Malaysia.

What a lot of Malaysians do not realize is that PAS is capable of doing so even if they do not possess the majority of parliamentary seats within the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, should PR gain sufficient seats to form the next government.

Scenario One: Should Pakatan win by a simple majority at the polls, their ability to actually form the Federal Government is controlled by PAS as they become the kingmaker by default. What PAS could do is to withdraw from the coalition (for whatever reasons) and joins BN which will effectively negate Pakatan’s win at the polls and hand over Putrajaya to BN which, with PAS, automatically becomes the major coalition partner in BN. All BN needs to do is to offer the deputy PM position as bait and the promise to implement hudud – a small price to pay for being retained as the federal government.

PAS does not require many parliamentary seats to achieve its plan. If Pakatan wins by a 10-seat majority, PAS will only need six seats to overturn this decision. Should Pakatan somehow win the next GE by a thirty seat majority, all PAS needs is a mere sixteen seats and traditionally, PAS has been able to obtain more than that number when the Opposition fares well at the polls. In the previous GE in 2008, PAS won 23 parliamentary seats. In 2004, they won only 7 seats but that was the year BN won big with 198 seats. In 1999, Pas won 27 seats and in 1995 they won 7 seats (another great BN year). The results indicate that PAS won quite a number of seats when BN is doing badly and should Pakatan gain a simple majority, for example 120 seats, PAS should be contributing 20% to 25% of this total and
that is between 24 and 30 seats, a number large enough to make them the kingmaker.

Will they insist on hudud being implemented even with only 24 to 30 seats in total? Bet on it. If Pakatan wins 120 seats (in the event that the total number of seats remain at 222), this means that the PKR-DAP group has 90 to 96 seats between them as compared to the
24 to 30 seats held by PAS. If there are no independent winners, BN should then obtain the remaining 102 seats.

If Umno offers PAS the chance to become the leading coalition partner in BN and PAS takes up on this offer, the formula will be changed. Pakatan will only have won 96 seats at best as compared to the new total of 126 seats for BN (which now consist of PAS as well). Even if the PKR-DAP group has 113 seats (as compared to 7 seats to PAS), BN together with PAS will still get to form the next government as Pakatan will now be left with only 106 seats as compared to the new BN total of 109 seats.

The only way PKR-DAP can overcome this dilemma is to win more than 111 seats and that is a long time coming. In 2008, the combined total of PKR and DAP is 59 parliamentary seats (their best outing since 1969). They now need to double this figure to prevent PAS from
being the kingmaker and implementing hudud in the process of jumping over to BN (which they have done before).

Before Harun Taib opened his mouth, it was ABU. Now we need to assess the situation properly. Even if Pakatan wins the next GE, it does not automatically mean that they will reach Putrajaya. PAS might do a froggie and BN will still get to retain its position, albeit with
a new partner at its side on the throne. Muhyddin might consider sleeping with Nik Aziz a lot better than being seated on the Opposition side of the Parliament (Najib would have been ousted by then).

Vote wisely, people. A vote against BN might not be what it is. A vote for PAS might also not be what it is. The only way for Pakatan Rakyat, with or without PAS, to get to Putrajaya is to obtain more than 111 parliamentary seats and the chances of this happening at the next GE is almost non-existent as PAS has its share of seats allocated to them to contest as a Pakatan Rakyat coalition partner (against BN).

The only other way for Pakatan to reach Putrajaya should they win at the polls is by having individual PAS winners do a froggie to either PKR or DAP (should the top PAS brass decide to join BN) and the probability of someone from PAS doing so is mighty slim.

First, it was DSAI with his Sodomy II and sex tapes. Subsequently, the disastrous municipal appointments in Selangor highlighted the PKR internal problems. Later, the much respected Tunku Aziz joined in the fray with his anti-BERSIH statements together with AA deciding to
follow suit to become the ice cream man on tape. Now Harun Taib with his “PAS will sleep with the devil to achieve its aims” statement.

If Pakatan Rakyat is trying to commit political suicide, even before the election date is announced, it is doing a great job indeed. So, where does this leave us, the layman with the singular vote?