Which way will the Malays vote? - Part 1

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Prof Datuk Mohammad Agus Yusoff breaks down Malay voters into three main groups:  rural Malays; young Malays and urban and semi-urban voters. Agus, an associate professor in political science, estimates that at least 65% of Malay rural voters including Felda settlers support BN but there is a split amongst young and urban Malay voters, at 55% for the opposition and 45% for BN.

Chua Sue-Ann, fz.com

Any political party with aspirations to helm the federal government knows that the Malays are a crucial power base.

 

After all, the Malays form the largest ethnic group in the country, making up over 60% of the population, and are the largest voter group at over 55% of the electorate.

 

Nevertheless, as Malaysia counts down to the next general election – which has to be held before middle of 2013 - there is no certainty as to how Malays would vote.

 

This uncertainty has set the stage for both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to battle for Malay support.

 

Umno spearheads BN’s charge when it comes to winning Malay votes. Over at the PR side, the Malay majority seats are mostly shared between PAS and PKR, the latter being a multi-racial party.

 

DAP, one of the three parties in PR, too is hoping to field more Malay candidates to shed its label of being a Chinese-dominated party.

 

Political analyst Ooi Kee Beng believes the next GE will see a Malay versus Malay battle with non-Malays playing supportive roles on both sides of the fence.

 

Ooi, who is the deputy director of the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said it is difficult to pin down where Malay votes lay.

 

“The Malay versus Malay scenario is here to stay. Broadly speaking, the Indians appear to slightly favour PR and the majority of the Chinese are definitely supporting PR,” said Ooi.

 

It is telling that many political pundits are hesitant to predict where the majority of Malay voters stand.

 

Faced with that question, observers tend to preface their remarks by reminding that Malay voters are far from homogenous.

 

“The days of putting blanket perceptions of ethnic groups are long over,” says one political observer.

 

Who are Malay voters?

 

Malay voters can be categorised by various factors including location, age, gender, socioeconomic background and perceived political affiliation.

 

The civil servant voter group, dominated by Malays, as well as the Felda settlers are said to throw their support behind BN.

 

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Prof Datuk Mohammad Agus Yusoff breaks down Malay voters into three main groups:  rural Malays; young Malays and urban and semi-urban voters.

 

Agus, an associate professor in political science, estimates that at least 65% of Malay rural voters including Felda settlers support BN but there is a split amongst young and urban Malay voters, at 55% for the opposition and 45% for BN.

 

“Rural voters believe that Umno can bring development and stability. This is what they have always known. But younger voters and urban voters are more independent and exposed to alternative information sources.

 

“They think that with Malaysia’s vast resources we should be enjoying better than this,” said Agus. Agus however disagrees that the next general election will come down purely to a battle between Malays.

 

“Malays are fighting each other. If there is a split between Malay votes, the Chinese votes come in. This time, the majority of Chinese don’t support the government. Umno cannot rely on Malay votes alone.

 

“The Malays are very polarised. It isn’t just about race, it is also about class. So the recipe (to win voters) has to be different and you have to serve different menus to different groups,” said Agus.

 

Opposition works on Malay support

 

Buoyed by the unexpected results of the 2008 general election, PR is preparing itself for a better showing in the next election.

 

The opposition knows that winning over Malay support is an important part of their battle plan but this is no easy task.

 

As it now stands, BN has 138 of the 222 parliamentary seats while the PR has 74 (six of PR’s MPs left to become independent representatives, though one - Bayan Baru MP Datuk Seri Zahrain Mohamed Hashim, who was elected on the PKR ticket before turning independent, has since rejoined Umno). There remaining seats are PSM (1), KITA (1) and SAPP (2). The Titiwangsa seat is empty following the death of PKR MP Dr Lo'Lo' Ghazali on July 17, 2011.

 

BN lost its two-thirds majority and five states after anti-incumbent voting by non-Malays and a 5% swing by Malay voters toward the opposition.

 

Universiti Malaya lecturer Prof Edmund Terence Gomez, in an analysis published after the 2008 general election, argues that Malay support for BN began to fall as early as 1990.

 

According to Gomez, BN continued to lose Malay support after the reformasi period following Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s sacking as deputy prime minister although support in all Malay-majority seats rose in 2004 after Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s departure.

 

In 2008, BN’s support in most Malay-majority seats fell as large segment of non-Malay voters swung to the opposition, Gomez said.

 

PKR chief strategist Rafizi Ramli acknowledges that rural Malays is still a challenging group to breach but this does not mean PR, particularly PAS and PKR have no presence in the Malay heartland.

 

According to Rafizi, PR’s strategy is to focus more on voters in semi-urban and urban areas particularly the first time voters, a move which the opposition hopes will also help with their rural strategy.

 

“Most of them will go back to the kampung to vote and bring different perspectives back to their families.

 

“They are the best vote canvassers for us, more effective than party machinery on either side,” said Rafizi who estimates an additional 3% to 4% rural support for the opposition should this strategy work.

 

According to Rafizi, PR is focusing on bread and butter issues, and not race or religion, to attract urban and working class Malay youth voters.

 

Demographics change fuel new dynamics

 

After the 2008 election results, BN leaders are aware of the changing voter sentiments led by young voters and the middle class who are increasingly shying away from race-based politics.

 

At the recent Umno general assembly, Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak warned against over-dependence on the party’s traditional rural Malay powerbase and on repeating the mistakes that lead to BN’s poor showing at the last general election.

 

 “Umno and BN cannot afford to feel relieved and take it easy, hoping for the people's support based on the nostalgia over past deeds or what the party and government has done so far,” Najib told party delegates.

 

This is due to Malaysia’s “demographic reality” that has changed radically, the prime minister said.

 

Najib pointed out that the next election will have 20% of voters, or about 2.9 million voters of various ages, casting their ballots as new or first time voters.

 

Half of Malaysia’s 29 million people are under the age of 25 while 80% are under the age of 45.

 

Additionally, 70% of the population lives in urban areas even though rural seats still form a significant proportion of constituencies.

 

Over the long term, the party who can accurately read the pulse of the young and urban voters will have an upper hand over its competitor.

 

Part 2: Focusing on bread and butter issues