Just as the Malaysian elections are imminent, Singapore’s ruling party, the People's Action Party (PAP) has suffered a shocking loss in the Punggol East by-election.
The decision by the PAP to hold a snap by-election, on hindsight, may have backfired, The outcome has shown that almost all the pundits were wrong in thinking that it may be very hard for the incumbent to lose in a multi-cornered fight.
The eventual four-cornered fight between the PAP’s Dr Koh Poh Koon, a successful colorectal surgeon in private practice, the Workers’ Party’s (WP) Lee Li Lian, a sales trainer, the Reform Party’s Kenneth Jeyaratnam, a former hedge fund manager and son of the the late renowned opposition politician JB Jeyaratnam, and the Singapore Democratic Alliance’s (SDA) Desmond Lim, was much debated amongst Singaporeans who called against a multi-cornered fight.
PAP’s Dr Koh was an ‘unknown’ in the Singapore political scene until his candidacy was announced, which some may perceive as yet another reluctant elitist to be parachuted into Parliament at the last minute.
Why field a candidate who reported only joined the PAP about a month ago? This may give the perception to some voters - is this the best that you can come up with?
The Jan 23, 2013 Straits Times report ‘Koh said ‘no’ to PM at first’, probably didn’t help either. Apparently, the PAP candidate Dr Koh (right in photo) had declined to stand as a candidate when he was first invited by the PM.
Perhaps what this by-election result has shown is that history, as in the outcomes of past multi-cornered fights, need not necessary repeat itself.
This may be a historic landmark signifying greater democracy in Singapore, at least from the perspective of elections, and becoming more like other countries. The mindset block that multi-cornered flights must be avoided at all costs may start to diminish.
The high deposit of S$16,000 (RM39,360) and fear of losing one’s deposit if one does not get 12.5 percent of the votes, which arguably may have worked in the past to discourage more candidates, may now be a double-edged sword because as demonstrated by this by-election - the two candidates who fought against all odds and lost their deposits, may have contributed to the unexpected wide winning margin of the new MP for Punggol East, Lee of the Workers’ Party.
‘Underdog’ effect?
Allow me to explain my reasoning for the above. Some voters may have also felt along the same lines as most of the pundits that since it was perceived that the incumbent cannot lose in a multi-cornered fight, it wouldn’t make much of a difference if they voted for what I call ‘the underdog’ effect.
So, we may have to thank all the opposition parties and independents who, in a sense, contributed to the four-cornered fight and the snap election.
This may have enhanced the so called ‘by-election’ effect further.
Also, considering the unhappiness of the residents with various issues like public transport and amenities, some may just have voted for the Workers’ Party, thinking that it may not make any difference to the incumbent PAP anyway - and express one’s unhappiness by denying the PAP from winning with ‘too many’ votes.
Fielding a candidate who is so successful, hold so many appointments, etc, may have made some voters wonder as to how he could find the time to serve the residents?
In this connection, when Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the PAP candidate has the potential to reach greater heights in political office, this may mean that he may be even more busy, and thus may have even less time for the residents.
Having a more qualified and successful career-wise candidate may also reinforce the perception as to his time available to serve the residents, and to some extent the ‘David versus Goliath’ and ‘underdog’ effect too.
The unprecedented announcements of so many ‘goodies’ like the new Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) lines in 2030 (17 years from now!) may have been somewhat of an ‘overkill’ that may give some voters the impression that ‘goodies’ galore only come out before elections.
The delay of the expected full release of the white paper on population was initially probably not very significant, but perhaps luck may have played a part with the analysis from a financial institution that if the population grows to seven million, it may be good for Singapore - may also have contributed to some unhappiness amongst voters.
The huge influx of foreigners in recent years may arguably be one of the most pressing concerns and cause of unhappiness amongst Singaporeans. Singapore’s population of 5.3 million, is made up of 1.47 million foreigners, 530,000 permanent residents and 3.3 million citizens, which means that 38 per cent are not Singaporeans.
PAP-owned company ‘AIM’ issue?
The polls were held amid a war of words between the Workers’ Party-run Aljunied-Hougang Town Council and the PAP-owned Action Information Management (AIM) about the town councils’ software contract which was sold by the PAP town councils to AIM.
PM Lee had announced that the Ministry of National Development would review the transaction between the town councils and AIM, but the issue was expected to get an airing in Parliament on Jan 14, as the WP had filed a motion to debate the issue. The WP then withdrew the motion as the review was in process.
Announcing the by-election just a day after the decision to hold an internal review on the ‘AIM’ affair - AIM is a S$2 company, after the ‘first time ever’ loss of a Group Representation Constituency (Aljunied GRC, which has five seats in Parliament) to the opposition WP, may have given the perception to some voters that the government may be trying to get the by-election over with, before the review.
Some may feel that the review’s findings may have an adverse effect if the by-election was held after the review.
Also, the almost immediate response from the coordinating chairperson of PAP Town Councils, Dr Teo Ho Pin, later in the night on the same day (Jan 22) to Workers’ Party chairperson Sylvia Lim’s remarks about the AIM issue in her by-election rally speech, which was generally perceived as a rather weak response, probably didn’t help either.
The decision by the PAP to hold a snap by-election, on hindsight, may have backfired, The outcome has shown that almost all the pundits were wrong in thinking that it may be very hard for the incumbent to lose in a multi-cornered fight.
The eventual four-cornered fight between the PAP’s Dr Koh Poh Koon, a successful colorectal surgeon in private practice, the Workers’ Party’s (WP) Lee Li Lian, a sales trainer, the Reform Party’s Kenneth Jeyaratnam, a former hedge fund manager and son of the the late renowned opposition politician JB Jeyaratnam, and the Singapore Democratic Alliance’s (SDA) Desmond Lim, was much debated amongst Singaporeans who called against a multi-cornered fight.PAP’s Dr Koh was an ‘unknown’ in the Singapore political scene until his candidacy was announced, which some may perceive as yet another reluctant elitist to be parachuted into Parliament at the last minute.
Why field a candidate who reported only joined the PAP about a month ago? This may give the perception to some voters - is this the best that you can come up with?
The Jan 23, 2013 Straits Times report ‘Koh said ‘no’ to PM at first’, probably didn’t help either. Apparently, the PAP candidate Dr Koh (right in photo) had declined to stand as a candidate when he was first invited by the PM.Perhaps what this by-election result has shown is that history, as in the outcomes of past multi-cornered fights, need not necessary repeat itself.
This may be a historic landmark signifying greater democracy in Singapore, at least from the perspective of elections, and becoming more like other countries. The mindset block that multi-cornered flights must be avoided at all costs may start to diminish.
The high deposit of S$16,000 (RM39,360) and fear of losing one’s deposit if one does not get 12.5 percent of the votes, which arguably may have worked in the past to discourage more candidates, may now be a double-edged sword because as demonstrated by this by-election - the two candidates who fought against all odds and lost their deposits, may have contributed to the unexpected wide winning margin of the new MP for Punggol East, Lee of the Workers’ Party.
‘Underdog’ effect?
Allow me to explain my reasoning for the above. Some voters may have also felt along the same lines as most of the pundits that since it was perceived that the incumbent cannot lose in a multi-cornered fight, it wouldn’t make much of a difference if they voted for what I call ‘the underdog’ effect.
So, we may have to thank all the opposition parties and independents who, in a sense, contributed to the four-cornered fight and the snap election.
This may have enhanced the so called ‘by-election’ effect further.
Also, considering the unhappiness of the residents with various issues like public transport and amenities, some may just have voted for the Workers’ Party, thinking that it may not make any difference to the incumbent PAP anyway - and express one’s unhappiness by denying the PAP from winning with ‘too many’ votes.
Fielding a candidate who is so successful, hold so many appointments, etc, may have made some voters wonder as to how he could find the time to serve the residents?
In this connection, when Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the PAP candidate has the potential to reach greater heights in political office, this may mean that he may be even more busy, and thus may have even less time for the residents.
Having a more qualified and successful career-wise candidate may also reinforce the perception as to his time available to serve the residents, and to some extent the ‘David versus Goliath’ and ‘underdog’ effect too.
The unprecedented announcements of so many ‘goodies’ like the new Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) lines in 2030 (17 years from now!) may have been somewhat of an ‘overkill’ that may give some voters the impression that ‘goodies’ galore only come out before elections.The delay of the expected full release of the white paper on population was initially probably not very significant, but perhaps luck may have played a part with the analysis from a financial institution that if the population grows to seven million, it may be good for Singapore - may also have contributed to some unhappiness amongst voters.
The huge influx of foreigners in recent years may arguably be one of the most pressing concerns and cause of unhappiness amongst Singaporeans. Singapore’s population of 5.3 million, is made up of 1.47 million foreigners, 530,000 permanent residents and 3.3 million citizens, which means that 38 per cent are not Singaporeans.
PAP-owned company ‘AIM’ issue?
The polls were held amid a war of words between the Workers’ Party-run Aljunied-Hougang Town Council and the PAP-owned Action Information Management (AIM) about the town councils’ software contract which was sold by the PAP town councils to AIM.
PM Lee had announced that the Ministry of National Development would review the transaction between the town councils and AIM, but the issue was expected to get an airing in Parliament on Jan 14, as the WP had filed a motion to debate the issue. The WP then withdrew the motion as the review was in process.
Announcing the by-election just a day after the decision to hold an internal review on the ‘AIM’ affair - AIM is a S$2 company, after the ‘first time ever’ loss of a Group Representation Constituency (Aljunied GRC, which has five seats in Parliament) to the opposition WP, may have given the perception to some voters that the government may be trying to get the by-election over with, before the review.
Some may feel that the review’s findings may have an adverse effect if the by-election was held after the review.
Also, the almost immediate response from the coordinating chairperson of PAP Town Councils, Dr Teo Ho Pin, later in the night on the same day (Jan 22) to Workers’ Party chairperson Sylvia Lim’s remarks about the AIM issue in her by-election rally speech, which was generally perceived as a rather weak response, probably didn’t help either.
LEONG SZE HIAN is a Malaysian based in Singapore.
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