Shocking news from Ground Zero(1)

As I promised, here is how the cookie will crumble. These figures were handed to me by moles burrowed deep in Bikit Aman, at MINDEF, from UMNO politicians and the boys and girls whose tongues were made light and easy after nights out in town.

My own feeling is there will be reversal of positions. In this coming elections, PR will get what BN got in 2008- 140 seats or thereabouts and the balance going to BN. when that happens, more will abandon the BN ship especially from the UMNO camp.

Table 1: The possible outcome in GE13.

no	STATE	PR	BN
1	PERLIS	1	2
2	KEDAH	13	2
3	KELANTAN	13	1
4	TERENGGANU	4	4
5	PENANG	12	1
6	PERAK	18	6
7	PAHANG	5	9
8	SELANGOR	20	2
9	WILAYAH PERSEKUTUAN	10	1
10	PUTRAJAYA	0	1
11	NEGRI SEMBILAN	6	2
12	MELAKA	2	4
13	JOHOR	12	14
14	LABUAN	1	0
15	SABAH	12	13
16	SARAWAK	16	15
		145	77

The table above is even more bullish than the analyses which I have made on several occasions. Having examined  the data given to me, here is my take.

In Perlis, the seat that is most likely to fall is Arau. In 2008, PR obtained almost 49% of the votes casted. An addition of another 5% will result in BN losing the seat.

In Kedah, the 2 seats that appear safe for BN are Langkawi and KUbang Pasu. BN’s most comfortable seat is Langkawi. In Langkawi although the opposition increased its share of the votes, BN starts with a strong existing vote bank. Similarly, in KUbang Pasu, in 2008, the opposition obtained 40% of the votes and increased its share of the votes by 9%. So perhaps, it’s time for Najib to move MUkhriz Mahathir to Langkawi so that he can continue to be an MP on the opposition bench in the next parliament.

In Kelantan, besides Tengku Razaleigh , I would have thought the bland and colourless Mustafa Mohamad would be able to retain his seat. It appears the tide is turning against him principally because of his stand on the oil royalty issue of Kelantan. The people handing me the numbers insist that Mustafa Mohamad will get the boot this time.

What about those PR MPs who are seen to be under-performing? These will be replaced by determined and dedicated candidates who will continue to benefit from the overall support for PAS’s spiritual leader.

I have already touched on Terengganu in my earlier article. I predicted that PR will get 5 seats. According to the intelligence sources, PR would probably get 4 seats. Earlier I thought, BN may lose Besut if it retains Abdullah Mat Zain , the incumbent. The man is hardly there. Will Mat Said be willing to select his arch enemy Idris Jusoh to contest in Besut? Otherwise according to these sources, BN will likely retain Besut, Setiu, Kemaman and Hulu Terengganu. That makes it 4-4.

In Penang, the only seat safe for BN is Tasek Gelugor. If Pak Lah stands again in Kepala Batas, he will lose. His replacement, whether its Reezal Merican or even son in law Khairy, will also be defeated. What else is left for Pak Lah to prove?

In Perak the relative safer seats for BN are to be found in (1) Gerik (2) Lenggong (3) Parit (4) Tapah (5) Bagan Datoh and (6) Tanjung Malim. Out of these 6, the weakest links are found in Bagan Datoh and Parit. So, people out there if you want to kick out Zahid Hamidi from Bagan Datoh, come out in full force to vote in PR13.

Please wait for the next installment of the forecast.

Posted by sakmongkol AK47