UMNO Leaders' misplaced Optimism

Last week several BN leaders said they were confident of getting a 2/3 majority. Will that be a 2/3 majority from their existing 140 seats? That would give BN only about 92 seats. Which means PR will be the new government with 130 seats. That would seem to be more in tune with the mood on the ground.

UMNO still thinks Malays will come back to them. They are clinging to the falsehood which they created that Malays are doomed without UMNO. UMNO operates on the false belief that (1) Malays in UMNO are more Malay than those Malays outside UMNO (2) it alone can take care of Malays (3) it alone can take care of religion and it alone (4) takes care of Malay rulers. All these beliefs are erroneous and the Malays themselves have debunked these lies.

The Malay outside UMNO is no less Malay nor are they less Muslim than Malays in UMNO. Loyalty to Malay rulers whose position is guaranteed by the constitution and belief of ALL Malays (non UMNO Malays included) and the religion of Islam does not need UMNO as it guardian. It is defended by ALL Muslims, UMNO or Non UMNO. The non UMNO governments in Kedah, Kelantan, Selangor and Penang have shown they can govern better and can take care of Malays and non-Malays alike.

Malays are naturally given priority because they are in the majority- the majority who are poor, majority of those less educated, majority needing welfare assistance, majority of those who require affordable public housing. The fact of being the majority ensures they will always get priority. Malays also formed the majority with lesser per capita income. All the courtesy of 55 years of UMNO rule, pillage and plunder.

So, we can’t believe our ears when we hear and our eyes when we read, UMNO insists it can get a 2/3 majority. Well good luck to them. We wish them all the best and the next opposition party in parliament.

I hope UMNO people understand the hidden message Mahathir is sending to them- that Najib’s fate is in the hands of UMNO delegates come the next General Assembly. What Mahathir means is, let’s send off Najib. He has met all the ketua bahagians and leadership at divisional levels and has berated Najib for being a weak leader which of course, everyone knows Najib is.

What about winning 2/3 majority? We have 166 parliamentary seats in Semenanjung. From that I see PR winning 110 seats in Semenanjung alone. Let us speculate possibilities in some states.

Perlis.

It is a small state. But the UMNO leaders there have voracious appetites. The big 4 are Shahidan Kassim, Azmi Khalid, Radzi Sheikh Ahmad and the current MB Mohd Isa Sabu. There is one more outsider. I am not going to argue with people who say he has much influence.  If that is true, he is another contender for MB. If UMNO wins.

So there you have it. The state is so messed up in internal squabbles. Nowadays that is a typical description of UMNO everywhere. You have a state with 3 divisions and at least 5 people wanting to become MB all from UMNO.

If Shahidan Kassim cannot get his way to contest a state seat that will allow him to become MB once again, he has instructed his supporters to vote PR. Radzi Sh Ahmad’s posters are everywhere in town. He too wants to be MB .

Tun Daim once told me the only solution to help Perlis is to dismiss shahidan kassim, azmi Khalid, radzi sheikh ahmad and the Isa Sabu. Because of the war between these people, at least 9 state seats are in jeopardy.

Kelantan.

In Kelantan , the only winnable parliamentary seat is Gua Musang and that only if Tengku Razaleigh is picked as the BN candidate. BN leaders are only interested to be division chiefs and ministers while secretly wishing PAS will win everything. If Tengku Razaleigh is fielded and wins, BN will only have 1 single representative there out of the 14. Pasir Mas? We can only ask Ibrahim who? He is the VK Lingam of UMNO. He is not UMNO. He speaks not for UMNO. But he supports UMNO. That makes Perkasa a political subcontractor for UMNO in charge of repairing sewage for UMNO. In the old days, Perkasa is like the night soil collector.

Terengganu.

In Terengganu, while Mustafa Ali is a bit conservative in saying that he is only confident of winning 4 parliamentary seats, I see PAS/PR winning 5 out of the 8 parliamentary seats. UMNO can probably win Kemaman, Besut and Hulu Terengganu.

Pahang.

Pahang is my home state. I shall therefore dwell a bit more on the politics here.

In Pahang, Jerantut will surely fall if Tengku Azlan stands. If he does, the opposition will win by at least 4000 vote majority. What is shocking is that this vote margin is predicted by UMNO members!. That shows Tengku Azlan is facing opposition within his own division.

When Tengku Azlan was asked directly by an UMNO member about his intentions, Tengku Azlan stated he will relinquish his seat. The questioner thumped his table, and said, so be it- lets agree on that. So if Tengku Azlan now reneges on his promise, even UMNO people will turn against him.

If others take his place, they will lose. If Dr Shukri takes over, Wan Amizan will arrange for his defeat. If wan Amizan takes over as parliamentary candidate, Dr Shukri will see that he is defeated.  

No one in Jerantut sees any other as more qualified than he.

PAS will win this seat no matter who contests for BN.

Kuala Lipis. The Lipis parliamentary seat is troubled. The present division chief Dato Abdul Rahman has been at war with the current MP, Dato Dr Shahrum(PhD) right from the beginning. Dato Rahman has extensive grassroots support. He has even defeated a current exco member to become the Lipis Division head. Dato Shahrum, the incumbent says he has not done anything wrong to warrant his removal. Those who opposed him say, he has done nothing. The seat is eyed by Abu Jimi, by the Women Affairs Minister’s Polsec- Suhaimi Ibrahim among others. We will see whether BN can win this seat.

In Raub, whether Ng Yen Yen stays as candidate or is replaced by the state MCA chief- Ho Khai Mun, the seat looks shaky. With 51% non-Malay voters and at least 40% of Malays supporting PR, Raub seems likely to be a casualty.

Bentong.  If the urge to cut off the ears of the Pahang MB is intense, Bentong can be won. If PR can come to an understanding and positions Leong Ngah Ngah of DAP in Bentong, Leow Tiong Lai can be beaten. Ngah Ngah is a popular figure who is a political veteran. He has made an indelible mark as a long-serving ADUN for Triang. The people are also primed up and motivated to take on Adnan Yaakob’s challenge to have his easr cut off. We would not want to maim anyone, but will welcome his desire to jump into the Pahang River. Just make sure, the water is only ankle deep Dato Sri DiRaja!

We need not elaborate further the bleak chances of BN in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota.

PR can win Cameron Highlands. The incumbent Devamany from MIC thinks he is a big shot reining in and chiding the Highland’s OCPD recently. To the Malays in Cameron Highlands we can only tell them, it’s a crying shame if you stay loyal to the MIC. You are the majority and you want to support an MIC candidate. If you want to win Camerons, ask UMNO to put up a candidate. If Palanivel comes there, send him back to open up a vegetarian restaurant. Ask him where is the RM100-million allocation to Tamil School.

The PR can defeat BN in Termerloh. SaifudinAbdullah  is most likely to be dropped and if he is, putting up a strong candidate  in Temerloh can secure a potential win for PR. Another area that is a potential win for PR is the Bera Parliamentary seat. It is currently held by Ismail Sabri Yaakob. His performance as minister has been lacklustre and he quarrels with most of the UMNO warlords in his division.

PR can win 5 to 7 parliamentary seats in Pahang. Pahang has 14 seats. 

Next Change: wait for the latest predictions courtesy of all the King's man from Bukit Aman, the MIB from MINDEF, politicians at the push buttons, the business community after a night out with the boys and girls from Putrajaya.  

 

 Ariff Sabri.