We must thank Mark Twain for his foresight. After my article on May 9 in Malaysiakini on the distorted voting system in Malaysia, I received numerous feedback but two main questions debated were:
1) Why did I not exclude the 800,000 Mykad holders in Sabah in my analysis; and
2) Many believe that if I had factored in this "questionable votes" in my estimates, the outcome of the GE13 would have been different.
Firstly, I would like to say that my analysis and the resultant hypotheses are based on the information from the public domain. I did not "audit" the SPR's results according to generally accepted auditing standards in Malaysia, as I certainly do not have the access, means and resources to do so.
Besides, my musings are purely hypothetical and designed to raise awareness on the inequality of the voting system in this country. The rest, I will leave it to the readers to surmise, and believe me, many have.
Here's my take on the two questions above:
1) I did not forget the "disputed" Sabah IC issue. But until the royal commission of inquiry (RCI) has finalised its findings, it would have been premature for me to include an estimate that will certainly be debated till the cows come home (pun intended).
2) Further, some of the 800,000 recipients could have genuinely earned their right of citizenry and hence, how could I have factored in the correct number with any degree of accuracy?
3) Not all the 800,000 in Sabah would have voted for BN, notwithstanding their gratitude to BN. Some would have just not voted as a mark of protest. Indeed some may have even voted for the opposition. Some may have followed Azzimudie Kiram back to wherever he came from.
4) If we include this number for Sabah, then how about Sarawak? I'm inclined to believe that there could be some questionable IC issuance there, too. But for Sarawak, there is no popular estimate as there was for Sabah. How about for the peninsula itself? There are enough net postings to raise a serious doubt as to the exact number of dubious voters.
Back-of-the-envelope calculations
But because my mind also cherishes a challenge, I did some quick "behind the envelope" calculations to feed the masses' thirst for intrigue should the 800,000 votes be excluded from the GE13 electoral roll. I'm hoping my 30 years of accounting experience will hold stead in my estimates. Here goes.
Some broad assumptions:
a) The voter turnout would have been consistent throughout Sabah.
b) As a minimum, the bulk of the grateful 800,000 who voted, would have voted for BN to keep their side of the bargain.
c) There is no significant number of spoilt votes in this pool.
d) There were no other phantom voters.
e) The popular vote margin for East Malaysia remains the same with the inclusion of the said 800,000 votes.
Now brace yourselves for the hypothetical results:
1) In the worst case scenario, BN would have still won GE13 with 112 seats in Parliament.
2) Pakatan would have come very close at 110 seats at best.
3) Interestingly Labuan, while not exactly in Sabah per se, would have been the decider for both the parties. The GE13 polls' results show that BN was unassailably in the lead here.
In my earlier article, I had alluded to the legitimacy to rule a country when not only the popular vote was not in the hands of the ruler but also the majority swing was caused by a very small number of voters.
In this hypothetical situation, the future of 28,200,000 (because now we have 800,000 less citizens) Malaysians would have been decided by an unbelievable 19,356 voters. This is the significance of the "first-past-the-post" voting system. Believe it or not.
So there you go folks, even if the RCI had concluded that the 800,000 MyKad should be withdrawn, as Lobo sang, 'Me and You and a dog named Boo', will still be under the same government as now.
1) Why did I not exclude the 800,000 Mykad holders in Sabah in my analysis; and
2) Many believe that if I had factored in this "questionable votes" in my estimates, the outcome of the GE13 would have been different.
Firstly, I would like to say that my analysis and the resultant hypotheses are based on the information from the public domain. I did not "audit" the SPR's results according to generally accepted auditing standards in Malaysia, as I certainly do not have the access, means and resources to do so.Besides, my musings are purely hypothetical and designed to raise awareness on the inequality of the voting system in this country. The rest, I will leave it to the readers to surmise, and believe me, many have.
Here's my take on the two questions above:
1) I did not forget the "disputed" Sabah IC issue. But until the royal commission of inquiry (RCI) has finalised its findings, it would have been premature for me to include an estimate that will certainly be debated till the cows come home (pun intended).
2) Further, some of the 800,000 recipients could have genuinely earned their right of citizenry and hence, how could I have factored in the correct number with any degree of accuracy?
3) Not all the 800,000 in Sabah would have voted for BN, notwithstanding their gratitude to BN. Some would have just not voted as a mark of protest. Indeed some may have even voted for the opposition. Some may have followed Azzimudie Kiram back to wherever he came from.
4) If we include this number for Sabah, then how about Sarawak? I'm inclined to believe that there could be some questionable IC issuance there, too. But for Sarawak, there is no popular estimate as there was for Sabah. How about for the peninsula itself? There are enough net postings to raise a serious doubt as to the exact number of dubious voters.
Back-of-the-envelope calculations
But because my mind also cherishes a challenge, I did some quick "behind the envelope" calculations to feed the masses' thirst for intrigue should the 800,000 votes be excluded from the GE13 electoral roll. I'm hoping my 30 years of accounting experience will hold stead in my estimates. Here goes.
Some broad assumptions:
a) The voter turnout would have been consistent throughout Sabah.
b) As a minimum, the bulk of the grateful 800,000 who voted, would have voted for BN to keep their side of the bargain.
c) There is no significant number of spoilt votes in this pool.
d) There were no other phantom voters.
e) The popular vote margin for East Malaysia remains the same with the inclusion of the said 800,000 votes.
Now brace yourselves for the hypothetical results:
1) In the worst case scenario, BN would have still won GE13 with 112 seats in Parliament.
2) Pakatan would have come very close at 110 seats at best.
3) Interestingly Labuan, while not exactly in Sabah per se, would have been the decider for both the parties. The GE13 polls' results show that BN was unassailably in the lead here.
In my earlier article, I had alluded to the legitimacy to rule a country when not only the popular vote was not in the hands of the ruler but also the majority swing was caused by a very small number of voters.
In this hypothetical situation, the future of 28,200,000 (because now we have 800,000 less citizens) Malaysians would have been decided by an unbelievable 19,356 voters. This is the significance of the "first-past-the-post" voting system. Believe it or not.
So there you go folks, even if the RCI had concluded that the 800,000 MyKad should be withdrawn, as Lobo sang, 'Me and You and a dog named Boo', will still be under the same government as now.
DATO RAMESH RAJARATNAM is a chartered accountant and a keen follower of Malaysian politics.
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