Malays will swing for Pakatan

To obtain the elusive two third majority, Pakatan Rakyat has to get a 20% Malay vote swing and a 10% Chinese vote swing to the least to grab 157 seats.

COMMENT

Despite claims by the Barisan National that it will reclaim its two third majority in the upcoming 13th general election, there are clear indications that the battle for Malaysia is tougher than it was thought for the ruling coalition.

Notwithstanding the massive crowds that are pouring in excitement and braving the rain and threats of thugs, the opposition Pakatan Rakyat seems set to make gains due to a sense of general discontent with the BN come May 5.

The momentum on the ground is thunderous, indicating a sweeping victory albeit the cautious statements by the opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim on his coalition’s chances, and the figures needed by the Pakatan to win the polls are not that impossible to achieve.

According to analysts – so called independent but surely leaning towards the BN – the Indian vote is now at 50-50. If that was the case, it would indicate a shift of 35% of the Indian votes garnered by the Pakatan in 2008 to the BN and this would represent – based on theundi.info website – a loss of 25 seats to the ruling coalition.

But in the same scenario, the 35% loss of Indian votes could be annihilated by a 10% increase of Malay votes coupled with a 10% increase in Chinese votes towards the Pakatan and these will give the opposition coalition a massive 125 seats, snatching 43 seats from the BN.

However, if the Malay swing votes increase to 15% instead of 10% (which has a great possibility of happening), the Pakatan may get an additional 13 seats increasing its tally to 138 seats and etching closer to a two third majority.

A 15% swing of Malay votes in favour of the Pakatan together with a 10% rise in the Chinese vote still in favour of the opposition will not be affected by a 10% swing of Indian votes in favour of the BN.

In such a scenario, Pakatan will grab at least 140 seats snatching an incredible 61 seats from the BN in the process.

If the Indian votes and Chinese votes remain stagnant as per 2008, that is in favour of the opposition with 85% Indians and 70% Chinese voting Pakatan, but with a 15% Malays swing in favour of Pakatan, the result will be 130 seats for the opposition.

Nevertheless, a 15% Malay swing for the Pakatan added with a 10% swing in Chinese votes (as expected) and the opposition can win a massive 145 seats and would be able to rule the country without much hindrance as long as the opposition coalition remains intact.

The Malay swing

To obtain the elusive two third majority however, the opposition group has to get a 20% Malay vote swing and a 10% Chinese vote swing to the least to grab 157 seats!

And I believe, God Willing, we are heading towards this type of results after the great show of force of the Anwar Ibrahim coalition in Permatang Pauh and Seremban in particular, not forgetting the shocker produced in Putrajaya by Husam Musa aided by Tok Guru Nik Aziz.

In 2008, it is said 85% of the Indian voters, 65% of the Chinese voters had chosen Pakatan, with voter turnout among Malaysia’s 10.9 million eligible voters estimated to be 70 percent and that gave Pakatan 3.7 million votes compared to BN’s 4.08 million.

What is obvious about the 2008 election results is that the majority of Malay voters had chosen BN but in 2013, with the larger number of people flocking to the Pakatan ceramah’s and the incredible momentum created with the nomination day mass rallies by Pakatan supporters, Malay votes will definitely swing to Pakatan.

In 2008, Malay votes must have been at 60% above for the BN which is a massive number but it surely contributed to Pakatan’s lack of seats.

The reason for saying this is that if Malay votes were at 50-50 in 2008, as claimed by most analysts, then Pakatan should have won the 2008 polls with a 59% voter base, leaving the BN behind with only 41%. It would have translated in a 125 or 130 seats victory for Pakatan.

The estimates for the 2013 polls are that there will be a shift of 20% or above of the Malay votes towards Pakatan, putting Malay votes at approximately 48% for BN and 52% for Pakatan, translating into 140 to 157 parliamentary seats for Pakatan in Sunday’s polls.

In 2013, there will be 2.9 million new voters, among them a majority of first time voters and their votes in general should go for the Pakatan and that will provide the natural swing that I am talking about here and it should bring a hefty 20% Malay vote surplus for Pakatan.

Nevertheless, it is only on May 6 – to repeat the famous quotes by Anwar Ibrahim – we will know if Pakatan has won, because if the BN had lost on May 5, the results will be delayed to the maximum possible!

If there is no swing of Malays, if the feeling and momentum on the ground does not translate into votes, it would be biggest nonsense in Malaysia’s history and the responsibility is on the people of the country to show of what real stuff they are made of.

Inikaliah, Ubah!

Ali Cordoba writes extensively on local politics.