Pakatan wave will sweep peninsula

The crucial question that remains is whether Pakatan will gain enough seats in East Malaysia to form the next government.

COMMENT

By Galvin Wong

This article will be an analysis and prediction of tomorrow’s general election. It will first begin by setting the context with a discussion of the events that have happened since nomination day.

It will then proceed to the prediction on a nationwide level before providing a more in depth look at the battleground states of Selangor, Perak and Johor.

Setting the context

Events that have happened from dissolution of parliament up to Nomination Day have already been discussed in my previous article. Some general conclusion have been that dirty tactics are turning off voters, Pakatan Rakyat has gained the upper hand in this campaign’s political engagements and has quickly generated much more momentum compared to BN.

The official campaign period shows that BN has failed to learn their lessons and has continued to use dirty tactics. Not only that, it has now moved one step further, resorting to using the race and religion card.

BN has continued to play up sex scandals as Rafizi Ramli has become the latest victim with the mainstream media such as TV3 publicly discussing the possibility of him being gay.

In addition, word has come out about the EC’s use of indelible ink that is actually delible and will be ineffective at stopping voters from voting twice.

This has raised worries that this could be a repeat of 2008 where the EC retracted its decision to use indelible ink at the eleventh hour.

Also, Anwar Ibrahim has revealed the possibility of BN transporting voters from East Malaysia to vote for them in Peninsular Malaysia.

BN’s race and religious rhetoric has also grown louder. Both Najib Tun Razak and Muhiyddin Yassin have stated how DAP’s venture into Johor would disrupt the harmony between the Chinese and the Malays. Such statements have raised the specter of May 13.

Furthermore, MCA has repeatedly published ads on hudud aiming to scare Chinese voters. Such actions by BN have forced Pakatan to respond with DAP also publishing ads concerning BN and Perkasa.

Pakatan has also had to downplay the Malay’s fear that their political power would not be compromised if Pakatan came to power, a worry caused by BN’s continuous highlighting of the issue.

Factors considered and seat predictions

On the back of these events, the support by the rakyat have clearly swung in favour of Pakatan. All these actions by BN have been slipups and Pakatan has come out the clear winner in this political engagement.

Momentum has constantly increased for them as we head to Sunday’s polls. Recent polls have shown that Pakatan has closed the gap in terms of support and both political parties are just 1% away from each other in terms of popular vote projections.

I estimate that nationwide support for Pakatan stands at 35%-40% for the Malays, 75%-80% for Chinese voters and 40%-45% for Indian voters.

This estimation is based on recent polls by Merdeka Centre and University Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections as well as the taking into account of recent national factors such as those listed above.

However, applying these figures across the board on all parliamentary seats will hardly be accurate as electoral support in different states vary.

Therefore, in order to make sure the findings are more accurate, I made further variations to these figures according to states.

I shall give examples of these figures and explain what factors I have considered in each state in my analysis of battleground states further below. My prediction will only be restricted to parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia as the data these polling centres have provided are from Peninsular Malaysia only.

This analysis will split the seats into three types – safe BN seats, safe Pakatan seats and marginal seats.

Marginal seats are seats that are projected to be won by a majority of no more than 6%. They are seats where a 3% vote swing will change the outcome of the seat completely.

Safe BN seats stand at 48 seats out of the 165 seats in Peninsular, roughly 29% of seats in Peninsular. Pakatan will safely gain 75 seats out of 165 seats or 45% of total seats in Peninsular.

Marginal seats number 42 seats or 26% of seats. A majority of marginal seats lie in the states of Perak, Selangor and Johor, all battleground states this election. Nine lie in Perak, eight in Selangor and 11 in Johor.

Out of these 42 seats, 23 seats are projected to be won by a majority of 2% or less. These seats are there for the taking for either party as a 1% swing of votes in these seats will change their outcome.

In order realistically reach its target of capturing Putrajaya, Pakatan needs to win at least 95 seats in Peninsular and then gain 17 seats in East Malaysia to reach the magic number of 112 seats.

This means it has to capture 87% or 20 seats of the 23 seats that are projected to be won by a majority of 2% or less.

This is certainly a very doable goal and Pakatan’s chances of capturing 95 seats certainly look realistic.

Selangor

I estimated that support for Pakatan in Selangor will be 45% for Malay voters, 80% Chinese for Chinese voters and 45% of Indian voters. These estimations are based on the recent Universiti Selangor survey.

Some main factors that were taken into account were the solid and clean performance of Khalid Ibrahim and the track record of the Selangor government in the past 5 years, the high urbanisation rate and the high access to internet news portals.

These estimations mean Pakatan will likely gain 14 safe seats or 64% of seats in Selangor. Marginal seats will be eight seats or 36% of seats. There is not a single seat in Selangor certain for BN.

Five out of eight seats are projected to be won by a majority of 2%. They are Kuala Selangor, Shah Alam, Sabak Bernam, Tanjong Karang and Sepang. Pakatan triumphed in 17 out of 22 seats back in 2008 but there is a realistic of them making a clean sweep in Selangor this time around.

Perak

Estimated Pakatan support in Perak is 40% Malay support, 80% Chinese support and 40% Indian support. Some factors that have been considered is that Chinese voters are unlikely to vote according to candidate popularity unlike in 2008, the Perak constitutional crisis and the performance of the BN government.

Applying it across the board, there are eight safe Pakatan seats or 33% of total seats in Perak. Safe BN seats number at seven or 29% of total Perak seats. Marginal seats number at nine seats or 38% of total seats.

There are three seats that are projected to be won by a 2% majority, they are Parit Buntar, Bukit Gantang and Kuala Kangsar.

The fight for Perak will certainly be a competitive one with neither side looking like the clear winner at the moment.

Johor

In producing my estimations of electoral support in Johor, the main factor I considered, among others, is the excitement created because of the top leaders DAP and PAS sent to compete there.

This has created the momentum needed for change that Johor has solidly resisted even during 2008.

I also considered the candidate popularity factor for seats such as Labis where Chua Tee Yong is standing and Pagoh where Muhiyddin Yassin is standing.

Malay support in Johor is expected to be 35%, Chinese support expected to be 80% and Indian support projected to be 40%. Pakatan will highly likely win seven safe seats or 27% of seats in Johor. BN will likely gain eight safe seats or 31% of seats.

Marginal seats are projected to be 11 seats or 42% of seats. Among these marginal seats, there are only four seats that are projected to be won by a 2% majority. They are Muar, Sri Gading, Simpang Renggam and Sembrong.

Like Perak, the fight for Johor will also be extremely competitive. The key to gaining a majority of seats will be the Malay vote. If Pakatan can increase Malay votes by another 5%, they will likely gain 17 seats or 65% of seats!

In conclusion, this analysis is based very much on statewide and nationwide factors. It does not take into account factors unique to an individual constituency and also the impact of phantom voters.

It is clear that Pakatan will win a majority of seats in Peninsular Malaysia. The crucial question that remains is whether they will gain enough seats in East Malaysia to form the next government.