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Saturday, June 15, 2013

Look at it closely again

Hence DAP and PAS did not do too badly in the votes versus seats comparison. It is PKR’s performance that upset these figures. And this is because DAP contested in the predominantly Chinese areas and PAS in the predominantly Malay areas while PKR contested in the ‘mixed’ areas. Hence Pakatan Rakyat’s performance in the mixed areas was not that good, thus bringing down Pakatan Rakyat’s performance.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
However in a show of unlimited stupidity, BN’s cybertroopers argue that BN has got more popular votes than either DAP, PKR or PAS based on an individual party basis. Their contention is that the opposition’s popular votes have to be pegged to the individual parties and not Pakatan Rakyat as a whole because Pakatan is not a registered entity with the Registrar Of Societies (ROS).
Of course Pakatan is not a registered entity. We do not need to be Sherlock Holmes to deduce who is the one blocking Pakatan from getting registered as a single coalition.
In the realm of social media especially in Facebook, those who are pro-Pakatan have shot down the arguments of the BN cybertroopers with comments such as “Have you taken your daily dose of medicine?” or “Janganlah bergaya sangat nak tunjukkan kebodohan awak tu.”
Although BN has won more seats than Pakatan, the fact that they have lost the popular vote must be gnawing at their gut. And this makes them come up with nonsensical and irrational arguments beyond the realm of logic.
Simply put, BN won due to the votes of ignorant voters and due to seat-shenanigans (rural areas having less voters but given more seats). Therefore they are now trying to “recapture” the popular vote via some spin in order to regain some sort of credibility. Nonetheless it is a futile attempt. -- (Selena Tay)
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That was what Selena Tay wrote today in Free Malaysia Today. And since Selena is a DAP activist and supporter it is quite natural that she wrote the way she did although you may be of the opinion that what she wrote is very biased and one-sided. Nevertheless, to accuse her of lying or of distorting facts would not be accurate or fair because she is merely expressing what she believes to be the truth. And the truth comes in many shapes, sizes and colours.
For example, a staunch and committed Muslim who writes or gives his/her opinion on Islam would say that Islam is the true religion (while all other religions are false) and that the only way you are going to get into heaven is to follow Prophet Muhammad and believe in the Qur’an, Hadith and Sunnah because on Judgment Day only the followers of Muhammad will enter heaven.
On the other hand, a staunch and committed Christian who writes or gives his/her opinion on Christianity would say that Christianity is the true religion (while all other religions are false) and that the only way you are going to get into heaven is to follow Jesus Christ and believe in the Trinity and the Bible because on Judgment Day only the followers of Jesus will enter heaven.
Now, both these people (the Muslim and the Christian) believe what they say to be the truth and would stake their soul on it (which is actually what is happening anyway). They are not lying. They never intended to tell even one iota of a lie. They would swear on their life that what they say is God’s truth.
But then how can both be telling the truth when what they say contradicts each other? There can only be one truth while the other has to be a lie. Or can both actually be lies?
Well, that depends on what you believe. If you are a Muslim then you will say the Muslim chap is telling the truth while the Christian chap is lying whereas if you are a Christian you will say that the Christian chap is telling the truth while the Muslim chap is lying. And if you are a Jew you will say both the Muslim and Christian chaps are lying. Both statements are lies.
So you see, truth is very subjective and true and false depends on your belief system. A lie can be the truth and the truth can be a lie depending on what you believe. And belief is very powerful. Belief needs not be about facts or about the truth. It is about what you think is true or what you imagine is the truth. And that, basically, would be how you need to assess what Selena wrote above.
The point I am trying to make is you need to look at the graphics below, which was published today in another DAP leader’s Blog (Sakmongkol AK47). Selena is suggesting that Barisan Nasional garnered lesser votes than Pakatan Rakyat and therefore is not the legitimate government although it won more seats that Pakatan Rakyat (133 versus 89).
Of course, this is what she believes and we cannot fault her for what she believes since she is a DAP activist. Those who are on the ‘other side’ or who are neutral may not see it this way since Malaysia has adopted the British Westminster system of first-past-the-post, which means majority seats and not majority votes gives you the government (and which has already been explained many times but which has fallen on deaf ears).
Now, is this so strange or weird? Well, look at the graphics below. DAP won 15.71% of the votes and 17.12% of the seats (not too bad in the votes versus seats balance). PAS, however, won almost the same number of votes (14.77%, which is 0.94% less than DAP) and yet it won only 9.46% of the seats (which is 7.66% less than DAP).
So, PAS won 0.94% votes less than DAP but it won 7.66% seats less than DAP. Would Selena regard this is fair or unfair? She did not offer any comment, of course.
PKR, on the other hand, won the highest number of votes (20.39%). Yet it won only 13.5% of the seats (which is lower than DAP but with more votes than DAP). Would Selena regard this is fair or unfair? She did not offer any comment, of course.
Okay, let us look at just DAP and PAS. Combined, they won 30.48% of the votes but they won only 26.58% of the seats. That is actually not too bad and almost balances in the votes versus seats analaysis. It is only when you add PKR’s performance that the combined figures (of all three) becomes 50.88% of the votes and merely 40.09% of the seats.
Hence DAP and PAS did not do too badly in the votes versus seats comparison. It is PKR’s performance that upset these figures. And this is because DAP contested in the predominantly Chinese areas and PAS in the predominantly Malay areas while PKR contested in the ‘mixed’ areas. Hence Pakatan Rakyat’s performance in the mixed areas was not that good, thus bringing down Pakatan Rakyat’s performance.
Hence the problem is not Pakatan Rakyat per se. Pakatan Rakyat -- if only DAP and PAS were taken into consideration -- actually performed quite okay in the votes versus seats analysis. It is only when you add PKR to it that the votes versus seats performance looks miserable.
Let’s look at another example. Umno, DAP and PAS combined won 59.8% of the votes and 66.22% of the seats. Then, Umno, PKR and PAS combined won 64.48% of the votes and 62.25% of the seats.
Can you see how the votes go up and the seats go down, and vice versa, when you change the ‘mix’?
Let me paint a new scenario. Say, PKR joins Barisan Nasional. What will we now see? The ‘new’ Barisan Nasional with PKR as a member would have won 67.79% of the votes (more than two-thirds of the votes) and 73.4% of the seats.
Okay, yet another scenario. Say, Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat both break up and Umno and PAS, for the sake of Malay-Muslim unity, form a unity government. Umno and PAS combined would have won 44.09% of the votes and 49.1% of the seats. And this would mean the Malay-Muslim unity government would now be kicked out unless some Malays from PKR cross over to join Umno-PAS.
And if the ‘others’ do not pass a vote of no confidence against Umno-PAS in Parliament (because they cannot come to a consensus) then Umno-PAS would rule with only 49.1% of the seats. Now that is what we would call a ‘minority government’ -- a term that is being wrongly used to describe the current Barisan Nasional government that has 59.9% of the seats in Parliament.
Interesting is it not? And what is even more interesting is if Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat both break up and Umno and DAP form a unity government then they would have won 45.03% of the votes and yet they would win 56.76% of the seats (which means they would still rule with even lesser votes than the current Barisan Nasional).
Hence Barisan Nasional, in its present form, only has 47.4% of the votes and 59.9% of the seats while a new coalition of just Umno and DAP would be not that far off with 45.03% of the votes and yet they would win 56.76% of the seats.
In short, the real winners in the votes versus seats contest are Umno and DAP. The rest from both sides of the political divide are merely making up the numbers. A coalition of Umno and DAP can actually control the country between just the both of them. They do not need the rest.
Hmm…if Umno were to agree with what DAP wants and both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat were to disband then Umno and DAP can take Malaysia forward without the need of the rest of the ‘small players’.
That, of course, is never going to happen for very obvious reasons -- which is Umno and DAP are on the reverse side of the same extremist and uncompromising coin. But then, putting personal party interest aside and for the sake of a better Malaysia, that may not be such a bad idea after all although there is no way in hell this can happen.
Selena needs to look at the fine details in analysing the real scenario. The issue of lesser votes and more seats or more votes and lesser seats cuts across both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat. To say that Barisan Nasional won less votes and more seats (or vice versa) while ignoring the fact that the same thing also happened in Pakatan Rakyat is not a balanced analysis.
And another unfair statement from Selena is: “Of course Pakatan is not a registered entity. We do not need to be Sherlock Holmes to deduce who is the one blocking Pakatan from getting registered as a single coalition.”
Has Pakatan Rakyat submitted its registration application? When was that and why has it not been approved yet? I do not have the details but since Selena brought it up then she should offer some details to support this allegation. And she had better get used to the fact that in the first-past-the-post system you form the government based on majority seats and not majority votes. To argue otherwise is not only dishonest but demonstrates ignorance as well.

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